NEG NAO Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: I’ll be in Atlantic City Thursday thru Sunday at the very lease should have some big wave action. bring your surf board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12Z Canadian is dry west of Long Island- except some wrap around showers on the back end - HP at first is weaker and further west near Lake Superior allowing the storm to get a few miles west of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago So many moving parts, jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, wthrmn654 said: So many moving parts, jeez Thats part of the problem-the models having difficulty honing in on which part develops and when, thus all the different solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Thats part of the problem-the models having difficulty honing in on which part develops and when, thus all the different solutions Exactly, sad to say but I kinda wish models were less i guess advanced like they were several years ago versus what they are now.... seems to me to many changes these days right up to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: bring your surf board I’ll be inside the casino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Comparing the 00z to 12zgefs, looking at total precip is nearly identical all the way to NYC from the image I can see not fully zoomed in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Eastern areas kinda look like more precip though but hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Jma is west of 00z lmao yeah I'm going put the phone down and do some yard work with all this variability, no point in wasting brain cells yet when models are all over the place still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Back and forth we go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYE Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12z Euro looks to be incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12z EURO is the same track its been for a while. Slams it into Long Island and retrogrades west. The low weakens while it does this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: almost no rain though lol Brian, how bad would the coastal flooding be in NYC if this track were to verify closely? Would it be very high impact for the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Brian, how bad would the coastal flooding be in NYC if this track were to verify closely? Would it be very high impact for the city? Hard to say for the city proper. But we're having east/northeast winds right now which is piling up water so I would think moderate at least for LI/CT/NJ coasts 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Brian5671 said: Hard to say for the city proper. But we're having east/northeast winds right now which is piling up water so I would think moderate at least for LI/CT/NJ coasts Also, the ground is pretty saturated from the prior rain storms we've had this summer/autumn. With high winds, I'd be concerned about a lot of trees falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, TriPol said: Also, the ground is pretty saturated from the prior rain storms we've had this summer/autumn. With high winds, I'd be concerned about a lot of trees falling. Definitely but probably need winds over 40mph for that to be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Euro way west of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The rain won’t be an issue, it’s the wind and coastal flooding. Looks to be an issue on all models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Hard to say for the city proper. But we're having east/northeast winds right now which is piling up water so I would think moderate at least for LI/CT/NJ coasts This has always been the biggest concern / threat with this. Does it stay minor / moderate or go somewhat higher? That is where the track (closer in or further out) comes into play. Rainfall from the Nassau / Suffolk westward was always secondary and never looked like anything heavy. Full moon aids the coastal flooding threat. Jersey coast and LI Sound remain most at risk for coastal flooding. Still going with a closer in more EURO type solution so some places could approach major flooding with long duration onshore flow. Winds along the coast gusting to 40 mph and 50 mph Suffolk county. Good gradient with high to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Good headline in my opinion and I say WOW in the differences between the 12z GEFS and EPS Fri night-Monday morning. Have those videos and puzzles handy for power outages, which if the 12z/23 EPS group verifies... extensive SNE LI NJ. You dont need a hurricane to make large interruptions in daily life and so whether or not NHC comments on the potential for a subtropical event , detours etc are likely here SAT-SUN. The only reason I say likely--- its the non EPS eastward modeling. EPS 5h etc track looks pretty ideal for a bashing in the NYC sub forum I95 eastward. and the FGEN R+ of 1-3" may well be aligned up to I84. Very early and still room to underperform eastward (Caution). Just so taken aback but the model differences at 72 hours in this 12z/23 cycle. 11 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, MANDA said: This has always been the biggest concern / threat with this. Does it stay minor / moderate or go somewhat higher? That is where the track (closer in or further out) comes into play. Rainfall from the Nassau / Suffolk westward was always secondary and never looked like anything heavy. Full moon aids the coastal flooding threat. Jersey coast and LI Sound remain most at risk for coastal flooding. Still going with a closer in more EURO type solution so some places could approach major flooding with long duration onshore flow. Winds along the coast gusting to 40 mph and 50 mph Suffolk county. NYHOPS 12z/23 ensemble for Sandy Hook edges into Major. idea is not to park your car where it can sand blased-flooded-tree branch damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 22 minutes ago, wdrag said: NYHOPS 12z/23 ensemble for Sandy Hook edges into Major. idea is not to park your car where it can sand blased-flooded-tree branch damage. Walt, My nephew has a trip planned to NYC for Thu-Sun. I don’t know where he’ll be staying, where he’ll be going, and whether or not he’ll be that close to water (probably not). I’d like your opinion. Is the risk for major disruptions in NYC high enough to make you feel he should consider postponing this trip? Or should he still go there? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 22 minutes ago, wdrag said: Good headline in my opinion and I say WOW in the differences between the 12z GEFS and EPS Fri night-Monday morning. Have those videos and puzzles handy for power outages, which if the 12z/23 EPS group verifies... extensive SNE LI NJ. You dont need a hurricane to make large interruptions in daily life and so whether or not NHC comments on the potential for a subtropical event , detours etc are likely here SAT-SUN. The only reason I say likely--- its the non EPS eastward modeling. EPS 5h etc track looks pretty ideal for a bashing in the NYC sub forum I95 eastward. and the FGEN R+ of 1-3" may well be aligned up to I84. Very early and still room to underperform eastward (Caution). Just so taken aback but the model differences at 72 hours in this 12z/23 cycle. Walt nice to see you back!! Thanks as always for your expertise.....Hope to see you alot this winter!! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago hi just came here to say get ready Icon got this 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCPhotowerx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago the Weather Channel seems to be going with the easterly solution... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, LCPhotowerx said: the Weather Channel seems to be going with the easterly solution... The last time the Weather Channel was accurate was 1993 on the Storm of the Century. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, LCPhotowerx said: the Weather Channel seems to be going with the easterly solution... I'm pretty sure there going the middle ground based on what I've heard/ watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, TriPol said: The last time the Weather Channel was accurate was 1993 on the Storm of the Century. They did good with sandy imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, wthrmn654 said: They did good with sandy imo Ok, a broken clock is right twice a day. The EURO is king. The EURO AI has performed better than most other models for over a year now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 20 minutes ago, GaWx said: Walt, My nephew has a trip planned to NYC for Thu-Sun. I don’t know where he’ll be staying, where he’ll be going, and whether or not he’ll be that close to water (probably not). I’d like your opinion. Is the risk for major disruptions in NYC high enough to make you feel he should consider postponing this trip? Or should he still go there? Thanks. Speaking with much less info-guidance than the NWS and many private sector mets/yourselves... I think it would be good to have a plan B for flight delays.. fortunately this is not a KU snowstorm. imo, good idea to have cash in hand if power outages this weekend. Global Modeling keeps the wind gusts below 60 MPH except mainly be LI/se New England... so presuming it's indoors... go but with having a plan B. Hoping its not to see the Yankees end of season. You all will have the modeling and NWS commitments tomorrow morning. I am curious if the NWS is relying on the NBM for forecast WWA? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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