October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[Prismshine Productions]

Imagine if it was winter

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[vortex95]

13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah I’m not sure there’s a lot of trust in forecasts generally, but the storm being the lead story for a few days isn’t necessarily hype in my book. Now, if you’re not adjusting your forecast as you’re certainly heading toward a bust, that’s a whole different issue and problematic. 

Other than the clowns online using 925mb wind images and calling this tropical, I didn’t see a lot of hype, but we probably have different definitions of what hype is. Showing a legitimate rain and wind forecast map and saying we don’t usually get these in September doesn’t rise to the level for me. 

One issue is the all storms have the same cookie-cutter hype formula in the eyes of TV stations.  Sure, not all OCMs follow that or want to do that, but many are forced to.

If one wanted to scale things properly and have something unique to say, they should have said, "such a storm fcst is quite unusual for September", but that takes more than generic knowledge of wx, one needs to know local wx history as well.  This is of value b/c it puts things in proper context and perspective, which sadly is sorely lacking these days in media.

Not all Nor'easters are alike, but they are treated as such for max hype and ratings.

Heaven help us when the next HU takes aim at New England.   Mark my words, they will make ZERO difference between the 1938 HU and a MEH HU like Belle in 1976.  "Look, the track is *similar* the 1938 HU!"  O-kay, but all big HU hits in New England have similar tracks!  That doesn't say anything really to the public as to total sensible wx impact  It's like after Sandy, every E Coast TC threat was "track similar to Sandy" which in that case was nonsense.  Sandy 's track was exceptional.   But never let a recent big event go unused for hype for "the next one!" 
 

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I agree the majority of storms will have overs and unders but can't the forecasters adjust their forecasts based on what is actually taking place?

Well, at least so far we don't see the ultimate over/under maps like the NWS has started putting out for snow events.  0-6" or 1-14" for a single point fcst?  That is practically useless for most.  Yes, I know some want to see the full range possible but overall, it just causes more confusion and has ppl going ?????

Put out one specific fcst w/ reasonable prob snow ranges at a given time, and that's it!  Adjust as needed as new model data comes in (not every single weenie model every 3 hr or so!). Focused, coherent, consistent messages is important!  Don't make things any more complex than they need to be.

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Winds are ripping... waves and splash over is awesome at high tide ill post pics when I get home later but this is awesome! 

Did you like the alkaline FOAM INVASION on the beach as the tide came in?  I hope you didn't stand in it like reporters sometimes do...gross!

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

The gap between television and other sources such as mobiles apps and social media is closing, however, local television is still rated as the #1 source. Even if people are getting information from other sources, a large percentage still revert to their local network as a means to try and verify the validity. 

The way even basic TV services continue to increase in costs has become a major issue, and I have read that networks are pushing to be able to *charge* you for their station access, when it always has been free w/ antennas w/o cable.  Yes, that would conflict w/ FCC regulations I think but never understated the power of lobby.

The entire TV landscape is becoming a CF.  Streaming was supposed to be the panacea, but now it is more expensive than cable w/ regular price increases way ahead of inflation.  And for sports fans?  Trying to find *where* your local or fav team will be on, not just when, is becoming absurd.  Sometimes you do not even know the day before what streaming service/station a particular game will be on!  And just wait until the SB becomes PPV!

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

sports is the same way. so many click bait articles when it comes to sports

I am only a casual sports fan, so verify this for me.  It has been said that its all about now the stupid drama OFF the field, like contracts, what this player said, a team potentially moving, etc, than the games themselves!

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

look out, an incredibly dangerous storm is coming.  not good

The biggest storm to impact the region in "HALF A YEAR!"  LOL. Who says that in regular talk?  Saying "6 months" is not dramatic enough, use "year" to make it sound "longer."  You see how micromanaged wording is for max effect.

This is good news from the Southern Rockies to the Lower MS Valley b/c this sig rain is badly needed b/c of drought conditions.  You never hear about that, do you?

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Playing devils advocate, wouldn’t the current environment of hyping up weather events lead to increased “hits” in forecasting high-end wx events?

It is incredibly hard for an event to “sneak up” on society these days.  

Good questions!

Yes it would, but when you always go big or max, your fcst success rate for high-end wx event is 100%.  That requires zero met skills.  Anyone can say that and sound awesome!

But ppl do it anyway b/c they know most will only remember the really big events selectivity, which is normal, but they do not realize such a forecaster always goes big, and this puts them up on a pedestal immediately and you get a dedicated fan/follower for life b/c of *one* "successful fcst of a biggie!

Yes, "sneaky" wx events are becoming less common, but do not let your guard down,  Ask @CoastalWx about Dec 9, 2005 or that early March 2013 snowstorm.  And even though it would likely not happen in the NEUS, you still get HUs that unexpectedly go nuts those last 6-12 hr before landfall.  Look at Michael in Oct 2018 and Ian in Sep 2022.  And such unexpected RI w/ TCs happens at lot for far at sea. HU Nolo S of HI several days ago was fcst to peak at 105 kt.  Well, it actually peaked at 135 kt!  And Humberto in Sep 2007 near the TX coast in just 24 hr when from next to nothing as a disturbance to a 80 kt HU at landfall.  Unexpected tornado outbreaks, esp. on a more local, less synoptically-evident scale, still occur every year.

The "surprises" are more often w/ mesoscale-type phenomena these days (inner cores of TCs are mesoscale), but don't rule out weenie snowstorms/synoptic-scale events completely!  And interesting combo is mesoscale surprises occurring when a large-scale synoptic event is expected.  I can't recall the exact event (@CoastalWx will!) but there was an OES event in NE MA as a large-scale storm was approaching, and Topsfield got like 25" of fluff before any real synoptic snow moved in!
 

[moneypitmike]

Final here was 7.54"

[kdxken]

Just went outside. It's not raining.

[Lava Rock]

0.90".

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[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Good questions!

Yes it would, but when you always go big or max, your fcst success rate for high-end wx event is 100%.  That requires zero met skills.  Anyone can say that and sound awesome!

But ppl do it anyway b/c they know most will only remember the really big events selectivity, which is normal, but they do not realize such a forecaster always goes big, and this puts them up on a pedestal immediately and you get a dedicated fan/follower for life b/c of *one* "successful fcst of a biggie!

Yes, "sneaky" wx events are becoming less common, but do not let your guard down,  Ask @CoastalWx about Dec 9, 2005 or that early March 2013 snowstorm.  And even though it would likely not happen in the NEUS, you still get HUs that unexpectedly go nuts those last 6-12 hr before landfall.  Look at Michael in Oct 2018 and Ian in Sep 2022.  And such unexpected RI w/ TCs happens at lot for far at sea. HU Nolo S of HI several days ago was fcst to peak at 105 kt.  Well, it actually peaked at 135 kt!  And Humberto in Sep 2007 near the TX coast in just 24 hr when from next to nothing as a disturbance to a 80 kt HU at landfall.  Unexpected tornado outbreaks, esp. on a more local, less synoptically-evident scale, still occur every year.

The "surprises" are more often w/ mesoscale-type phenomena these days (inner cores of TCs are mesoscale), but don't rule out weenie snowstorms/synoptic-scale events completely!  And interesting combo is mesoscale surprises occurring when a large-scale synoptic event is expected.  I can't recall the exact event (@CoastalWx will!) but there was an OES event in NE MA as a large-scale storm was approaching, and Topsfield got like 25" of fluff before any real synoptic snow moved in!
 

That was 1/2/14. Extremely cold event for snow. I think Logan dropped to 0F at one point with moderate snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

.71" rainfall on the day in Methuen, 1.06" Sunday, .58" Saturday, .03" Friday for a 4-day event total of 2.38"

+.06 today.... 2.44 event total.

[dendrite]

Looks like 1.93” may be it

[kdxken]

Courtesy of a huge acorn. On oak Street no less.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 hours ago, Brewbeer said:

dude, you have a weather station and still make stuff up

pretty sad in all "seriousness"

I report exact data rainfall and temps from a scientific wx station. . What kind of station do you have ? You seem very old fashioned and behind the times, so I’m guessing an old mercury thermometer mounted outside the kitchen window all rusted out. 

[tunafish]

22 hours ago, tunafish said:

0.83 + 2.45 = 3.28" event total

+0.93" = 4.21" event total

Looking at my five years of CoCoRAHS data, 3 of my top 10 rainfall obs are from this year - all around 2.50" for the 7am-7am period.  

All that despite being still well BN on the year.

 

[CoastalWx]

Saw a few breaks in OVC. 

[SJonesWX]

snagged over an inch yesterday, storm total just under 2"

how's that for scientific measurement?

[tunafish]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

snagged over an inch yesterday, storm total just under 2"

how's that for scientific measurement?

I heard your wx station is one of those non-scientific ones.  Sorry bud, we toss.

[Layman]

0.42" Sat, 0.89" Sun, 1.52" Mon and 0.15" today since midnight. 2.98" should do it for the total.  Forecasts were between 2.5" - 3.5" for this area if I recall correctly so they seem pretty spot on.

[Great Snow 1717]

6 hours ago, vortex95 said:

The way even basic TV services continue to increase in costs has become a major issue, and I have read that networks are pushing to be able to *charge* you for their station access, when it always has been free w/ antennas w/o cable.  Yes, that would conflict w/ FCC regulations I think but never understated the power of lobby.

The entire TV landscape is becoming a CF.  Streaming was supposed to be the panacea, but now it is more expensive than cable w/ regular price increases way ahead of inflation.  And for sports fans?  Trying to find *where* your local or fav team will be on, not just when, is becoming absurd.  Sometimes you do not even know the day before what streaming service/station a particular game will be on!  And just wait until the SB becomes PPV!

Ive been stating for years that  sports moving to streaming is laying the ground work for an eventual move to PPV....

[Great Snow 1717]

8 hours ago, vortex95 said:

That's major problem these days.  No accountability.  Whether it be legacy media or social media, it always about what's *going to* happen w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and hedging that is over-the-top.  Fcst does not work out as planned or not at all?, memory hole it and just move on to the next event or distract w/ other content.  It is business model that is more self-serving than doing a service.

...the lack of accountability has been a problem for years and it continues to get worse. They think people arent owed an explanation...and it certainly has become more self serving than doing a service..

[CoastalWx]

9 hours ago, vortex95 said:

That's major problem these days.  No accountability.  Whether it be legacy media or social media, it always about what's *going to* happen w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and hedging that is over-the-top.  Fcst does not work out as planned or not at all?, memory hole it and just move on to the next event or distract w/ other content.  It is business model that is more self-serving than doing a service.

I have no idea what he’s talking about. It was a top story, but the communication by local Mets looked on point. NWS called for minor CF with pockets of moderate potential and that’s what happened. Winds were correct and I think models did a good job with the NW-SE max QPF in SE MA to metro west. 

[CoastalWx]

It was highly anomalous for this time of year, and with weekends busy with activities, I don’t have an issue with it being a top story. 
 

I will say I was a little surprised at the lack of damage and power outages with winds near 50kts. Then again Mother Nature has done some good tree trimming around here since 2010 or so. 

[ineedsnow]

7 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Did you like the alkaline FOAM INVASION on the beach as the tide came in?  I hope you didn't stand in it like reporters sometimes do...gross!

 didn't stand in it but I did see a lady puck some up.. there was a ton of it

[ineedsnow]

9 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Had a weenie friend go to Hampton Beach today.  Sand drifts along the boardwalk were NUTZ!  Has @CoastalWx ever seen such before in GHG????
 

We drift! 

[CoastalWx]

Ha that’s pretty cool. Haven’t seen sand drifts like that.