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October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm


WxWatcher007
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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Wow...sharp cut-off around this area over the weekend....I'm not far from MHT at all.

And you thought you have got ripped off in Meuthen?  How about the 3 day total so far for Rockport MA?  Also, Billerica!

As @CoastalWx would say GWDLT!  And would be saying if Weymouth was not near 7" "deeply occluded low banded precip SUXS!"

 

3day.png

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2 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

sitting on the sideline with this one. 0.0" Friday, 0.1" Sat, 0.4" Sun, and 0.3" so far today, storm total <1".

MTD closing in on 5", so we got that going for us, which is nice

 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Wow...sharp cut-off around this area over the weekend....I'm not far from MHT at all.

0.42" Sat, 0.89" Sun and 0.76" so far today. 2.07" for the total through 10am.  I sit pretty equidistant from both Manchester (E) and Methuen (NE) at about 30-35 miles.

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33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For an anomalous storm (relative to the time of year) and some of the challenges among forecast guidance, this was an extremely well forecast storm and communicated quite well. 

That is true for some areas but the storm was a bust in the Merrimack Valley area.

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1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

That is true for some areas but the storm was a bust in the Merrimack Valley area.

There are always going to be areas which either meet forecast expectations, receive greater storm impact than forecast, or end up with lesser impact than forecast. From a forecasting perspective there are many situations where a forecaster can have an idea of where greater impacts/lesser impacts are more likely, however, it becomes a great challenge presenting that and conveying that to the general public. There are also situations where this is highly dependent on small-scale processes related to exact storm evolution. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

There are always going to be areas which either meet forecast expectations, receive greater storm impact than forecast, or end up with lesser impact than forecast. From a forecasting perspective there are many situations where a forecaster can have an idea of where greater impacts/lesser impacts are more likely, however, it becomes a great challenge presenting that and conveying that to the general public. There are also situations where this is highly dependent on small-scale processes related to exact storm evolution. 

..but the hype was off the charts...none of the hypemasters on TV offered up an explanation this morning....

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2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..but the hype was off the charts...none of the hypemasters on TV offered up an explanation this morning....

I don't recall any local TV stations hyping anything up. Like i said, forecast was very well communicated. Multiple days (several really) of communication allowed people to prepare, particularly emergency management and utility companies. Because of the staging and extra resources Eversouce dedicated ahead of time power outages were resolved in a timely manner and this helped keep numbers at a reasonable level. There was also some significant coastal flooding as advertised and you'd have to think those along the coast prepared and anticipated on this and impact the best they could. I don't recall any outlets out there stating any storm impacts being more extreme that what occurred. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't recall any local TV stations hyping anything up. Like i said, forecast was very well communicated. Multiple days (several really) of communication allowed people to prepare, particularly emergency management and utility companies. Because of the staging and extra resources Eversouce dedicated ahead of time power outages were resolved in a timely manner and this helped keep numbers at a reasonable level. There was also some significant coastal flooding as advertised and you'd have to think those along the coast prepared and anticipated on this and impact the best they could. I don't recall any outlets out there stating any storm impacts being more extreme that what occurred. 

C'mon for days the lead story on the news was the storm. The hype created  panic. Numerous events in the Merrimack Valley area were postponed or cancelled. At no time was any adjustments made to the forecast  for the Merrimack Valley area. Yesterday morning TWC had the area in the 2-3 more inches of rain to come area....not even close..

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1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

C'mon for days the lead story on the news was the storm. The hype created  panic. Numerous events in the Merrimack Valley area were postponed or cancelled. At no time was any adjustments made to the forecast  for the Merrimack Valley area. Yesterday morning TWC had the area in the 2-3 more inches of rain to come area....not even close..

Just because the lead story was on the storm does not mean it was hyped, majority of the news audience tunes in for weather. Weather is a significant portion of news ratings. Cancelling events ultimately is the decision of the person or people responsible for that decision. Even I year ago I laughed at how schools cancel so easily now, I made a post slamming schools because of closing for a potential wind event last year. However, a post from FXWX swayed my mind a bit and the various research papers I've read in this Weather and Society course I am currently taking has altered my perspective. There is an increasing trend for people to be on the safe side and one of the reasons for these decisions is people comparing risk versus "reward". Also, there is a greater trust in weather forecasts these days which factors in as well. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Just because the lead story was on the storm does not mean it was hyped, majority of the news audience tunes in for weather. Weather is a significant portion of news ratings. Cancelling events ultimately is the decision of the person or people responsible for that decision. Even I year ago I laughed at how schools cancel so easily now, I made a post slamming schools because of closing for a potential wind event last year. However, a post from FXWX swayed my mind a bit and the various research papers I've read in this Weather and Society course I am currently taking has altered my perspective. There is an increasing trend for people to be on the safe side and one of the reasons for these decisions is people comparing risk versus "reward". Also, there is a greater trust in weather forecasts these days which factors in as well. 

I do not agree with that at all. lol I think numerous people do not put a lot of trust in forecasts.  ...especially after this in the Merrimack Valley area..

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Yeah I’m not sure there’s a lot of trust in forecasts generally, but the storm being the lead story for a few days isn’t necessarily hype in my book. Now, if you’re not adjusting your forecast as you’re certainly heading toward a bust, that’s a whole different issue and problematic. 

Other than the clowns online using 925mb wind images and calling this tropical, I didn’t see a lot of hype, but we probably have different definitions of what hype is. Showing a legitimate rain and wind forecast map and saying we don’t usually get these in September doesn’t rise to the level for me. 

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