September 2026 Medium/Long Range

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

And the euro is even drier. 

Yeah. It looks like a few showers, drizzly and boring for a week. I wonder what model is correct lol

[snowfan]

0z euro wants to hang the precip back over the mountains leaving areas to the east mostly dry. 6z gfs is more uniform in the distribution of a 1-2" rain during the week. Canadian really wants to crank the low along the coast resulting in enhanced rainfall over the area. 3 different outcomes on the table. WPC has a healthy amount of rain.

 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, snowfan said:

0z euro wants to hang the precip back over the mountains leaving areas to the east mostly dry. 6z gfs is more uniform in the distribution of a 1-2" rain during the week. Canadian really wants to crank the low along the coast resulting in enhanced rainfall over the area. 3 different outcomes on the table. WPC has a healthy amount of rain.

 

Need to check the UKMET. Now that the CMC has high 500 mb verification scores as well, cant go wrong with that combo!

[stormy]

The 5 model blend for Augusta from Monday - Wednesday has dropped from 2.11" to 1.65" since yesterday.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Need to check the UKMET. Now that the CMC has high 500 mb verification scores as well, cant go wrong with that combo!

6z

[CAPE]

Looks like the general trend on guidance is faster movement of the front to our south, and the precip from the initial disturbance stays mostly to the north. Have to see what happens mid to late week with the potential coastal low for significant, more widespread rain for much of the area.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks like the general trend on guidance is faster movement of the front to our south, and the precip from the initial disturbance stays mostly to the north. Have to see what happens mid to late week with the potential coastal low for significant, more widespread rain for much of the area.

6z AIEPS likes mid week.

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z AIEPS likes mid week.

Among the dynamical models the CMC is pretty much alone for now in developing a low close to the coast and giving much of the area significant rain.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Among the dynamical models the CMC is pretty much alone for now in developing a low close to the coast and giving much of the area significant rain.

6z AIEPS entire run fwiw

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

The 5 model blend for Augusta from Monday - Wednesday has dropped from 2.11" to 1.65" since yesterday.

On it's way to the usual "less than a tenth, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms".

[87storms]

11 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The 0z is the best gfs run yet for a region wide soaking.

Haven't followed too closely, but looks like it's dependent on that coastal low.  If we get these types of setups 3 months from now, then I'm gonna really start missing my jeep.

[MN Transplant]

Good agreement for a really fall-like day on Wednesday with temps potentially staying in the 50s.

[TSSN+]

Gfs now under .75” of rain as well. Yawn 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs now under .75” of rain as well. Yawn 

Medium range models doing not so great. Getting dry again in these parts, with a steady decrease in soil moisture.   

[mitchnick]

Icon midweek is lol.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon midweek is lol.

Declare the flood emergencies now lol

 

[jewell2188]

Drying trend as we get closer…..we’ve never seen that before. 

[WxUSAF]

Icon and GGEM getting the new Europe-Canada partnership started off right 

[JenkinsJinkies]

17 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Drying trend as we get closer…..we’ve never seen that before. 

Blip

[WxUSAF]

The storm after the storm. Thats the one to watch 

[mitchnick]

Thru 138hrs, total qpf on the EuroAI. 

[mitchnick]

Euro coming in pretty wet now too thru 78hrs and more to fall.

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro coming in pretty wet now too thru 78hrs and more to fall.

Called it.

[mitchnick]

Totals thru Tuesday 11pm. Still raining south of PA border too 

[mitchnick]

Rain doesn't stop on Euro until 108hrs. Lol

[mitchnick]

Slp just sits off the coast. Chilly in the wake of the storm. Hello Fall!

Will this be a familiar scenario thru the winter? Let's hope. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Slp just sits off the coast. Chilly in the wake of the storm. Hello Fall!

Will this be a familiar scenario thru the winter? Let's hope. 

Let me be the first. 

[mitchnick]

Eps looks like it'll come in with a similar qpf/storm progression outcome, thought likely not as extreme, as the operational. 

[mitchnick]

Hoping we see this advertised from the Eps come winter.

[mitchnick]

Eps totals thru Friday, with showers still in the area.