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1 hour ago, Amped said:

My parents house in westport has basement flooding. The downtown area along the Saugatuck river got flooding worse than Sandy.

It was Deadmans Creek that flooded, not the entire Saugatuck. Still the worst flooding I've seen from a rainstorm there ever.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The lows in NYC run cooler than the surrounding urban sites like LGA and EWR. So the tree growth is probably lowering the minimum temperatures also to some extent. In the old days the NYC minimums would average closer to or warmer than those sites before the excessive tree growth.

Data for June 1, 2026 through September 13, 2026 Average Minimum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 70.2
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 70.0
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 68.0
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 67.6
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 67.5
NJ HARRISON COOP 67.3
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 66.7
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 66.6
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 66.3
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 66.3
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 65.7
CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 65.3
NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 65.2
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 65.1


 

Data for June 1, 1977 through September 13, 1977 Average Minimum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 67.6
NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 67.4
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 66.8
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 66.2
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 66.1

I would think tree growth would raise minimum temps. I find at my house when the temperature reading is in the open I get good radiational cooling but under tree growth readings are higher.

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2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Some breaks in the clouds.  Rain over.  As of 8:00 a.m. had received 1.01".

Looks like maybe .30" in the gauge since then, will measure later.

Glad the heavy totals stayed east.  Doing fine on rain here.  Don't need anything excessive.

1.7" here.  Looks like a decent week ahead.

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More and more we are seeing these major warm season flash flooding events occur without defined tropical systems. The warmer atmosphere holds more moisture so tropical systems aren’t required. These days all that is required is a weak low or stalled out front. 
 

Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 157 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Stamford 7.45 in 1220 PM 09/13 AWS

Fairfield County... Stamford 7.45 in 1220 PM 09/13 AWS
 

Essex County... MONTCLAIR 8.51 in 1210 PM 09/13 CWOP

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

More and more we are seeing these major warm season flash flooding events occur without defined tropical systems. The warmer atmosphere holds more moisture so tropical systems aren’t required. These days all that is required is a weak low or stalled out front. 
 

Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 157 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Stamford 7.45 in 1220 PM 09/13 AWS

Fairfield County... Stamford 7.45 in 1220 PM 09/13 AWS
 

Essex County... MONTCLAIR 8.51 in 1210 PM 09/13 CWOP

IA next target / Mid west while we dry out a bit but still need to watch Fri - Sun for any cut off slowly moving through

 

p168i.gif?1720886849

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On 9/12/2026 at 6:56 AM, bluewave said:

Northern California has been the place to be so far for cool fall weather.

 

IMG_7595.thumb.jpeg.5e83383ec8d06e4cec03654b8b1b8a85.jpeg

 

Lil preview of december 2026, but the center of heat over the plains instead of the NE.

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

More and more we are seeing these major warm season flash flooding events occur without defined tropical systems. The warmer atmosphere holds more moisture so tropical systems aren’t required. These days all that is required is a weak low or stalled out front. 
 

Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 157 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Stamford 7.45 in 1220 PM 09/13 AWS

Fairfield County... Stamford 7.45 in 1220 PM 09/13 AWS
 

Essex County... MONTCLAIR 8.51 in 1210 PM 09/13 CWOP

Those numbers could definitely cause some flash flooding

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On 9/12/2026 at 12:02 PM, NEG NAO said:

The problem with trying to predict the winter season is there are a few other things to consider . One being the negative PDO - will it persist into the winter months ??? . Next is the Polar Vortex. - how will that behave ?. Another issue is the lack of melting in the Arctic region and Greenland this summer - 2 important cold air sources. Way too early to make any final winter forecasts.

The lack of melt points to strong PV. So does the QBO. You can't get a worse winter pattern for the northeast in terms of cold. The cold will be bottled up at the arctic like 2019-2020, and the conus will be flooded with pac air.

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10 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Those numbers could definitely cause some flash flooding

During the 1970s my worst warm season flooding occurred during Agnes and Belle. The 1980s and 1990s warm season flooding was also mostly tropical storms or hurricanes.

We could probably say the same about the 2000s although some non tropical events began to register. But the 2010s and 2020s are more of a mix between tropical systems and weak lows.

My most extreme rainfall in Long Beach was he weak low in mid-August 2011 that produced 10” during the morning and closed the barrier island to traffic since the areas around the bridges were flooded. 

 

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