Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer

[Prismshine Productions]

Haven’t had any here all summer. Just gentle lantern flies 

Spotted lantern flies?

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[Prismshine Productions]

He’s coming to a backyard near you starting today . More boredom 

Rivers up here near Townshend are bone fucking dry... Damn

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[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Spotted lantern flies?

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Yes he was hanging out with me last night while I was cooking on the Blackstone 

[weatherwiz]

55 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

I don’t think I’ve seen or heard one flying around this year.

Fruit flies on the other hand, goddamn!

This area (well backyard at least) absolutely blows for mosquitos. I am not sure why because there isn't any areas of water around. But once it starts getting dark out it seems they magically come out of nowhere. It really sucks because I like to sit outside during the evening but can't, they're too ruthless. Bug spray doesn't evening work...hell I am convinced those suckers have evolved to the point that it doesn't even bother them. 

[powderfreak]

Cold pool orographic showers led to rainbows as they moved through.

[vortex95]

On 9/3/2026 at 4:47 PM, JACKASS said:

Damn, you need Pantera too?!

So be it!

 

 

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

SVR season is in February.

Recall that overnight in Feb 2016 (I think it was that year)? @CoastalWx was thoroughly impressed w/ the LTG.  Probably the most CGs in SNE for a single tstm event in Feb on record!

Then he could not believe the two spinners in wrn MA on 2/25/2017!
 

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Only chance of an interesting fall is home brew a stuff off SE coast. 

What about something like this?  G103mph at DE-lux-BURY MA (that's your nickname for the location, not mine!) 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2021_nor'easter|

G113 mph Truro MA.  That's among the highest gusts ev-A recorded at sea level in a nor'easter in New England.  Probably the 2/2/1976 one had gusts this high on the ME coast (the one that flooded downtown BGR).  And of course, @CoastalWx fav -- Dec 9, 2005 ("what's that roar noise outside?" -- said by Scott waking up in the aftn in GHG!).

Even if we got something like this again, he'd be like, "MEH!  NIMBY!"

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Not being a negative Nancy, but I’m not sure leaning on the positive side is a good thing. 

What, as if Jan-Feb 2026 never occurred?  Come on!  I'll say it again, how often does Weymouth get two 20"+ snowstorms in a single winter?

This downer stuff is coming from someone as a kid in the 80s who used to wake up to full sun so ticked b/c he did not get his 4-8" "backlash" snow! 

Take more cues from @ineedsnow and get pumped every upcoming event/winter!

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well it’s also based on previous types of ninos. I did say I’m not opposed to near normal snowfall, but I’m not optimistic on AN snow. That’s different than Kevin claiming how every winter will suck. I’m not going by emotion. 

"I’m not going by emotion."

Whoa, scroll back a few posts, you said:

"At least summer gives some interesting weather usually. It’s been like San Diego here and I’m not holding out hopes for anything this winter that will move the weenie. I acknowledge we could get near normal snow in spots, but I’m not getting my hopes up after years of depression. Positivity is a waste."

Is this not emotion (the bold)?  An another post you were saying you were being objective.  So which is it?  Just looking for a little consistency here. 

 

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

If you could tell me that the GOA low will be just west enough or perhaps not as strong as some are anticipating so that if we do get a negative NAO, there’s a little bit of a cold source in Canada, I would definitely have a change in attitude.

 

We obviously do not need Canada to be an icebox, I think we all agree on that. But what I worry about  is that we have this split flow totally void of any money in the bank in Canada and raging STJ that basically combines up with any negative NAO ridging. 
 

if I would make a call, I would have BN snowfall, but I’m not anticipating a massive skunk in terms of snowfall. Especially the interior.

Here is food for thought...

We see this El Nino is in record territory.  The thing to keep in mind that things do not work linearly necessarily just b/c you have "stronger" or "strongest ever."  Case in point, the very strong El Nino in 2015-16.  Up until that point, it was an expected given that Cali gets big rains in very strong El  Nino, and the Pac NW is dry.  Well, that did not happen.  In fact, the exact opposite happened, and the MSM was all over that acting, "that's it, Cali is done...PERMANENT DROUGHT!"  And then the very next year, weak La Nina, and it was one of the wettest on record for Cali.  No insight or restraint, just knee-jerk, here-and-now nonsense.

The point all being we are too fixated on making analogs and forecasting *exact* sensible wx for any/all regions.  Well, that's not really the best fcst science.  Non-linear system the Earth system is and works.

So who is to say there will not be a couple of blockbuster E Coast snowstorms 2026-27, and snowiest than any other very strong El Nino winter DCA-BOS?  We only have 4 other very strong El Ninos to compare since 1950, so no way we have seen the full gamut of what is possible or the variance, esp. region to region.

I can give another example.  Recall the fcsts for the 2024 Atlantic hU season?  They were off the charts, going to be an all-time record, and yes, the indicators were there.  And it started fast and early w/ Beryl, but then what happened?  The climo peak of the season got ripped out Aug-Sep.  Yes, it still was an above avg season, (161 ACE) but a far cry from the hyperactive season that was fcst (220+ ACE).  It was not 1933, 2004, or 2005, not even close, and a significant fcst bust by all.  Things got messed up b/c we had an ITCZ that was too far N and this squashed many of the Cabo Verde waves, so we could not even get TCs to form in the MDR peak season.  A wildcard factor that shows there are still unknowns out there and we have a lot to learn, despite all our advances.

And no, that does not mean I am saying it is going to be a big E Coast snow winter, just saying that surprises and unexpected still do happen, in spite of analogs/past seasons.

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I know some people will say well it will just supercharge whatever we had for a strong or super Niño. I’m not sure you can apply that linear logic.

"Linear logic" -- solid term, esp. as it applies to wx/climate!  Linear logic does not work well for a coupled, chaotic, non-linear system as the Earth's atmos/cryo/hydrosphere.

"Supercharge" is largely a media term for hype.

But if you want to go that route, what about El Nino "supercharging" the wind shear over the Atlantic MDR?  It is at an all-time record level by far (at least since 1979) per CSU.  Where is the mention of that in the mainstream?  Even when it is, it will be spun in a way still negative for society or made a into "problem."  Cherry-picking at its finest.

When the Atlantic was very active 2020-2025, want to know what was going on the NW Pacific for TCs for the same period?  It was the lowest 6-year total ACE on record since 1950 for this basin (66% of avg).  And the NW Pacific supplies the most ACE for any tropical basin in the world (double any other basin). 

"Supercharge" is subjective term and often gets used selectivity, so not a good term to use, esp. for complex systems.

Also, more or stronger/higher does not all mean "worse" or "bad" when it comes to sensible wx and the cycles/patterns they are connected to/influenced by.
 

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Adding on to my reply to Scott in your winter thread about the ridiculous graphic from the annoying guy and how some of the stuff he says doesn't seem to make sense. He is favoring increased winter threats in the deep South because the jet will be shifted south. I don't think that is totally true but I do know alot of generic stuff out there on EL Nino mentions this. I think there seems to be confusion out there on the different branches of the jet stream.

The cooler/wetter patterns which plague the southern states during EL Nino I think is related a a stronger jet (which we all know) but its a stronger sub-tropical jet stream which can have the tendency to be displaced a bit further NORTH and its the cooler/more active track which plays a bigger role in the temperature anomalies. But its the stronger jet which is more critical versus the displacement. The polar jet also tends to be displaced further north, hence the lack of Arctic cold outbreaks penetrating south. 

 

"from the annoying guy and how some of the stuff he says doesn't seem to make sense." 

"favoring increased winter threats in the deep South because the jet will be shifted south."

These are the kind of things one needs to monitor in discussions/posts. Put on your critical thinking hat!

It all can sound great, then you catch one item that does not make sense that is biggie.  Yes, it could be typo or honest mistake, but not always.  Proof/authority by obfuscation or pontificating is a common tactic on some social media posts.  And then we have AI-queries that are cut/pasted that can make it even harder to spot!

[Damage In Tolland]

Man… Vort95 gone wild overnight .. scolding after scolding of Scoots 

[CoastalWx]

5 hours ago, vortex95 said:

What, as if Jan-Feb 2026 never occurred?  Come on!  I'll say it again, how often does Weymouth get two 20"+ snowstorms in a single winter?

This downer stuff is coming from someone as a kid in the 80s who used to wake up to full sun so ticked b/c he did not get his 4-8" "backlash" snow! 

Take more cues from @ineedsnow and get pumped every upcoming event/winter!

I mean in SNE. Better chance down by DC where it doesn’t take much. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man… Vort95 gone wild overnight .. scolding after scolding of Scoots 

Just pillaging my reputation. Hate to see it.

[jlauderdal]

9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Cold pool orographic showers led to rainbows as they moved through.

Coldest air temp I ever experienced was in Stowe -29F.  

[tamarack]

7 hours ago, vortex95 said:

What about something like this?  G103mph at DE-lux-BURY MA (that's your nickname for the location, not mine!) 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2021_nor'easter|

G113 mph Truro MA.  That's among the highest gusts ev-A recorded at sea level in a nor'easter in New England.  Probably the 2/2/1976 one had gusts this high on the ME coast (the one that flooded downtown BGR).  And of course, @CoastalWx fav -- Dec 9, 2005 ("what's that roar noise outside?" -- said by Scott waking up in the aftn in GHG!).
 

Southwest Harbor (Penobscot Bay) recorded a gust of 115 mph in that storm.  The 957 mb reading at CAR that day is a contender for lowest pressure in New England from a non-tropical storm.  At Fort Kent we had 1.5" of rain plus 0.5" flurries with wind gusting to 50 and temp 46/-11.  At 1 PM it was 44, 4 PM 14, 6 PM -6.  By the next day the ice holes on most roads were awesome.

[Lava Rock]

So much for prtly sunny. Clouds, cool, breezy. Can't get rain when its supposed to rn and can't get sun either. Piss off

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[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes he was hanging out with me last night while I was cooking on the Blackstone 

Invasive and hostile to stone fruit trees. Squash them. 

[Snowedin]

13 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

This area (well backyard at least) absolutely blows for mosquitos. I am not sure why because there isn't any areas of water around. But once it starts getting dark out it seems they magically come out of nowhere. It really sucks because I like to sit outside during the evening but can't, they're too ruthless. Bug spray doesn't evening work...hell I am convinced those suckers have evolved to the point that it doesn't even bother them. 

I live in a very swampy area myself so once dusk hits, I know 9 times out of 10 there will be skeeters just randomly buzzing around and a few minutes later, packs of voracious bats pursuing them. At least they’re slowing down a bit now but I’ve had a few bad bites on my shoulders and leg in just the last week alone.

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Invasive and hostile to stone fruit trees. Squash them. 

He and they live and hopefully multiply. Need some damage in the region. Hopefully they can team up in the same year with the gypsies 

[WxWatcher007]

My God, the GFS.  

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

7 hours ago, vortex95 said:

"from the annoying guy and how some of the stuff he says doesn't seem to make sense." 

"favoring increased winter threats in the deep South because the jet will be shifted south."

These are the kind of things one needs to monitor in discussions/posts. Put on your critical thinking hat!

It all can sound great, then you catch one item that does not make sense that is biggie.  Yes, it could be typo or honest mistake, but not always.  Proof/authority by obfuscation or pontificating is a common tactic on some social media posts.  And then we have AI-queries that are cut/pasted that can make it even harder to spot!

For this site getting you is like Red selecting Bird with the 6th pick in the 1978 draft!!

You future enshrinment into the AMWX Hall of Fame is a lock!!

 

 

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Just pillaging my reputation. Hate to see it.