August Discobs 2026

[CAPE]

Picked up 0.55" here overnight. Woke up and it was raining hard. Wasn't supposed to get much of anything until today. I guess it came early.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

Wow, forecasting is in a sad state of affair nowadays.  Chimps would be better at predicting precip.  And they can't even use the usual "this is an extremely complicated setup" trope that we hear every time during the winter.  

We've gutted operational and research meteorology in this country over the past two years. Not surprising this is occurring. This isn't political, this is a fact. Even the normies are noticing this.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2026/08/17/the-cost-of-doge-americas-environmental-intelligence-is-going-stale/

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We've gutted operational and research meteorology in this country over the past two years. Not surprising this is occurring.

Bigly

[87storms]

Sun is popping out here. Looks like a gorgeous day on tap.

[87storms]

We’re really good at August nor’easters.

[Interstate]

46 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We've gutted operational and research meteorology in this country over the past two years. Not surprising this is occurring.

Please. This has been going on for years. There is a reason why people say “The weatherman is the only job where you can be wrong and still keep your job”. Everyone looks at weather models too much and think they are the absolute outcome. 
 

how many hurricanes were predicted this year in the Atlantic. You going to blame that on government cuts too?

[EastCoast NPZ]

17 minutes ago, 87storms said:

We’re really good at August nor’easters.

Some of us fail in every scenario.

[frd]

Maybe we get some sun later based on the visible in the Eastern areas,  after that multiple nice days with low dew points. 

 

 

[BlizzardNole]

This is all sliding NE just a few miles north of me.  So frustrating

[CAPE]

46 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Please. This has been going on for years. There is a reason why people say “The weatherman is the only job where you can be wrong and still keep your job”. Everyone looks at weather models too much and think they are the absolute outcome. 
 

how many hurricanes were predicted this year in the Atlantic. You going to blame that on government cuts too?

Everyone here maybe. Pro forecasters know the models are an imperfect tool- thus they are used as forecast guidance. If less data is available in certain regions at initialization, it will have some impact on modeled outcomes.

 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

This is all sliding NE just a few miles north of me.  So frustrating

That's training too. Probably a couple inches in some places if it holds together.

[Interstate]

17 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

This is all sliding NE just a few miles north of me.  So frustrating

I believe that is were the NAM having the line set yesterday or close to it. 

[SnowtoRain]

What's everyone complaining about, pouring 0.82"

[Interstate]

The drought has really eased for most people expect for @EastCoast NPZ.  He sent me a pick of his back yard yesterday

[stormy]

Our last shot at any rain is 3 - 11 pm as the front approaches.  

After that, my 66% of normal August rainfall shrinks. 

[snowfan]

HRRR has us getting a robust line of storms after sunset. Mostly dry until then for west of bay. 

[IronTy]

Looks like my hissyfit had its intended purpose, appears to be dumping pretty hard back home.  If we're gonna cut funding to meteorology then they might as well just go all the way and decommission the satellites too.  Then we can go back to the old days of weather forecasting based on things like joint pain and caterpillar fur.  

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, snowfan said:

HRRR has us getting a robust line of storms after sunset. Mostly dry until then for west of bay. 

Euros been on that too

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

Please. This has been going on for years. There is a reason why people say “The weatherman is the only job where you can be wrong and still keep your job”. Everyone looks at weather models too much and think they are the absolute outcome. 
 

The models have always been inaccurate. They always will be too. In order to have a perfect forecast you need two things: 1. A perfect simulation of every thermodynamic/kinematic process down to the air molecule and 2. Input data of every air molecule and its relevant properties. 
 

Now, obviously we will never hit that lofty goal. However, the same principles apply to figuring out why models have improved or stalled/declined in skill. Considering that, and this is a hard fact of reality not up for debate, here is list of soundings ended due to both budget cuts and personal loss at NOAA post doge. Below is quoted from a brookings article. 

• Weather balloon launches were suspendedin Albany, New York, and Gray, Maine.
• Weather balloon launches were ended in Kotzebue, Alaska.
• Balloon launches were suspended in Omaha, Nebraska, and Rapid City, South Dakota.
• Balloon launches were cut from twice daily to once daily in Aberdeen, South Dakota; Grand Junction, Colorado; Green Bay, Wisconsin; Gaylord, Michigan; North Platte, Nebraska; and Riverton, Wyoming.
• Nearly half of all weather offices are currently missing 20% of their staff.
• The New York Times reports that some of the weather service’s departments will no longer have weather forecasters working overnight

If you cut input data you cut model accuracy. To reiterate, this is not up for debate but the reality we live in. Ask yourself if those actions were done by the “other” political party what would your reaction be? It’s alright to admit that these cuts are a price you paid due to aligning with the admin on its other policies, but it’s not alright to deny the truth of the matter.

Final point here. For the 2027 fiscal budget the admin wants to cut NOAA spending another 17-25%. Imagine that. Our forecasters are already overworked, our data collection crumbling, and our main flagship models falling behind peer nations; and the solution is to cut funding.  Own up to your politics. 
 

Sources:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-politics-is-weakening-americas-weather-service/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/18/trump-cuts-ai-weather-prediction-forecasts

https://silencingscience.org/actions/noaa-budget-cuts-proposed-for-fy2027/

[BlizzardNole]

16 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Looks like my hissyfit had its intended purpose, appears to be dumping pretty hard back home.  If we're gonna cut funding to meteorology then they might as well just go all the way and decommission the satellites too.  Then we can go back to the old days of weather forecasting based on things like joint pain and caterpillar fur.  

Yeah, your area has been getting trained for a couple hours with lots of 2-3 inch amounts on the RainDrop app.  That app runs high so cut 25% but still a lot of rain.  My hissyfit above worked too as I'm finally under some good stuff!  0.4 so far 

[IronTy]

33 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Yeah, your area has been getting trained for a couple hours with lots of 2-3 inch amounts on the RainDrop app.  That app runs high so cut 25% but still a lot of rain.  My hissyfit above worked too as I'm finally under some good stuff!  0.4 so far 

Stack up those hissyfits for this winter, we're gonna need them!

[CAPE]

2.45" for the week. Not bad.

[BlizzardNole]

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

 Stack up those hissyfits for this winter, we're gonna need them!

I'm expecting a mild, rainy winter like 1998 so no pressure.

Heavy rain moving out with 1.6 inches, with 1.2 of that coming in about 45 minutes

[aldie 22]

3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Some of us fail in every scenario.

 

[SnowtoRain]

1.04", 4.42" month

[87storms]

Frederick might be the new 270 split precip magnet.

[CAPE]

Getting another line of showers after some peaks of sun. This should be it until the front moves through later.

[BlizzardNole]

1.9 total and now mostly sunny - wasn't expecting that today.  A tropical feeling 74/70

[Wxtrix]

overnight low of 59--the house is still nice and cool.

[SnowtoRain]

1.11", sun coming out now