Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[Brewbeer]

9 hours ago, kdxken said:

How many you got? 

over 340K

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looks about 1/4” fell here 

[Brewbeer]

45 minutes ago, klw said:

A bit less snow than when I was last at those Gorton lean-tos.

 

 

 

are those the ones on Kettle Pond?  As we were exploring the area, we noticed that Kettle Pond had a bunch of lean-tos that you could only access by paddling or hiking in.

[dendrite]

43 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Looks about 1/4” fell here 

That’s impressive for August

[HoarfrostHubb]

This has been a pretty meh August.  I guess we just hit 90.0F on the 7th.   But boring for the most part here.  I had thought we would get some good thunderstorm activity this month but so far that has been a dud. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Over 3” of rain at least

[Masswx]

more gfs la la canes

[klw]

1 hour ago, Brewbeer said:

are those the ones on Kettle Pond?  As we were exploring the area, we noticed that Kettle Pond had a bunch of lean-tos that you could only access by paddling or hiking in.

Yes, we snowshoed in.  Pond was frozen solid.

[CoastalWx]

11 hours ago, FXWX said:

How do you find WeatherFront compared to the host of other apps / sites?

I actually have not used it, but I’m thinking about getting it because it looks really nice. I know someone who uses it and they love it.

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I actually have not used it, but I’m thinking about getting it because it looks really nice. I know someone who uses it and they love it.

I am really thinking about it as well. 

TornadoTitans also released something today https://titantrack.tornadotitans.com/ 

Not sure if there is an app but this seems pretty freaking cool too. I did anything that has easily viewable satellite 

 

[weatherwiz]

Speaking of satellite, I just noticed too Steve's site has satellite. Sick 

[FXWX]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I actually have not used it, but I’m thinking about getting it because it looks really nice. I know someone who uses it and they love it.

Thanks... The promos for it are inticing.  I'm at the point that if I add another app,  I should probably drop one...

[dendrite]

Looks like Pivotal recently changed up their RRFS products. They only had RRFS-A for awhile, but now there’s RRFS and GSL-MPAS-RRFSA. I’ll admit I haven’t been keeping up with the documentation on this. 

[kdxken]

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like Pivotal recently changed up their RRFS products. They only had RRFS-A for awhile, but now there’s RRFS and GSL-MPAS-RRFSA. I’ll admit I haven’t been keeping up with the documentation on this. 

And you call yourself a meteorologist. 

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, kdxken said:

And you call yourself a meteorologist. 

Actually I’m a meaty urologist, but this was the closest tag we had.

[dendrite]

I think the MPAS is the v2 Scott referred to. The other has the broken FV3 core. Someone else more in the know can correct me if I’m wrong.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Speaking of satellite, I just noticed too Steve's site has satellite. Sick 

Does he have an archive of vis captures from great coastal misses over the North Atlantic?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Does he have an archive of vis captures from great coastal misses over the North Atlantic?

This would probably be the resolution 

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, dendrite said:

I actually thought the 3k did a good job most of the time…especially if the synoptics were being handled relatively well by most models. I had little to no use for the 12k.

But at least we had a lot of experience with the nam and when to use it as guidance. I’m not a fan of trying to learn a new model with a (pun intended) rotten core.

The 3km NAM is all over the place for convection, both in areal coverage and location, so I do not use it for that.  Also consistent high bias for QPF, esp. orographics, so it goes really nuts w/ snowfall.  And any NAM is useless for TC situations, as it never was designed for them.

The model initialization is "quick and dirty" for a "first look."  That's why it often does odd things beyond about 36 hr.  Model initialization is key, and that why the ECMWF is often better and why it is available later b/c they take care for the model initialization.

The value goes beyond the weenies that understand the above.  For those hype-masters that are always looking for the model that shows "the worst," having something like the NAM just ends up promoting bad/misinformation b/c of it multiple shortcomings.  Yes, all models have shortcomings, but let me put it this way, all those memes about the NAM? (the most classic meme attached).  They exist for a reason!

Yes, we are "used to it" for bias, but we will get used to the RRFS biases as well and its MPAS model core will be implemented in 2028.

@CoastalWx needs to move on and realize you can't have it the same forever.  By that logic, he would still want the LFM and NGM! 

 

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like I know how to analyze the NAM (both 3km and 12km). The RRFS just seems unstable run to run. Version 2.0 is better and it’s on platforms like Weatherfront for example. 

WHAN-bulence time! 

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Looks like Pivotal recently changed up their RRFS products. They only had RRFS-A for awhile, but now there’s RRFS and GSL-MPAS-RRFSA. I’ll admit I haven’t been keeping up with the documentation on this. 

Ahh, one w/ MPAS!  So @CoastalWx need to stop complaining!  We have a version of the RRFS to compare and we know it is better.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

The 3km NAM is all over the place for convection, both in areal coverage and location, so I do not use it for that.  Also consistent high bias for QPF, esp. orographics, so it goes really nuts w/ snowfall.  And any NAM is useless for TC situations, as it never was designed for them.

The model initialization is "quick and dirty" for a "first look."  That's why it often does odd things beyond about 36 hr.  Model initialization is key, and that why the ECMWF is often better and why it is available later b/c they take care for the model initialization.

The value goes beyond the weenies that understand the above.  For those hype-masters that are always looking for the model that shows "the worst," having something like the NAM just ends up promoting bad/misinformation b/c of it multiple shortcomings.  Yes, all models have shortcomings, but let me put it this way, all those memes about the NAM? (the most classic meme attached).  They exist for a reason!

Yes, we are "used to it" for bias, but we will get used to the RRFS biases as well and its MPAS model core will be implemented in 2028.

@CoastalWx needs to move on and realize you can't have it the same forever.  By that logic, he would still want the LFM and NGM! 

 

Sure. We always laughed at the 3k orographics and knew it was overdoing it in the mtns…it was more of a signal rather than taking the QPF verbatim. The 12k always seemed more zonked in coastals to me even near go-time. The running joke here in the winter is we’re always waiting for that run the day before a SNE biggie that jackpots here to northern VT. But the 3k was really good with CAD and (imo) ptype in those overrunning situations. Convection is hit or miss, but I never saw it as any worse than the other hires models. I just feel like it had its purpose and times where it was useful.

We still seem reluctant to dive into full 4dvar like ecmwf. I haven’t talked to Alicia B. in years so I should pick her brain more, but maybe you can explain to me while we’re still messing with 3.5dvar or other hybrids. I remember a study many years ago that showed the gfs error scores were similar to the ec when using their data assimilation. So it seems like there’s value there.

[CT Valley Snowman]

2 years ago today, August 18, 2024, a day Oxford CT and surrounding areas will never forget.  I remember looking at the radar in amazement but with the realization that this was going to be a flooding disaster in the hardest hit areas.  

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Ahh, one w/ MPAS!  So @CoastalWx need to stop complaining!  We have a version of the RRFS to compare and we know it is better.

You need your own YouTube or Twitch Channel !!!

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

2 years ago today, August 18, 2024, a day Oxford CT and surrounding areas will never forget.  I remember looking at the radar in amazement but with the realization that this was going to be a flooding disaster in the hardest hit areas.  

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Sure. We always laughed at the 3k orographics and knew it was overdoing it in the mtns…it was more of a signal rather than taking the QPF verbatim. The 12k always seemed more zonked in coastals to me even near go-time. The running joke here in the winter is we’re always waiting for that run the day before a SNE biggie that jackpots here to northern VT. But the 3k was really good with CAD and (imo) ptype in those overrunning situations. Convection is hit or miss, but I never saw it as any worse than the other hires models. I just feel like it had its purpose and times where it was useful.

We still seem reluctant to dive into full 4dvar like ecmwf. I haven’t talked to Alicia B. in years so I should pick her brain more, but maybe you can explain to me while we’re still messing with 3.5dvar or other hybrids. I remember a study many years ago that showed the gfs error scores were similar to the ec when using their data assimilation. So it seems like there’s value there.

I bet there is another meso model out there that has strengths of the NAM.  Just we have been so used to the NAM, we have not being forced otherwise to look!  So now we will be looking.

@CoastalWx misses having access to the IBM GRAF!  LOL.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

2 years ago today, August 18, 2024, a day Oxford CT and surrounding areas will never forget.  I remember looking at the radar in amazement but with the realization that this was going to be a flooding disaster in the hardest hit areas.  

Is this the one where runaway iceberg got smoked?

[dendrite]

21 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I bet there is another meso model out there that has strengths of the NAM.  Just we have been so used to the NAM, we have not being forced otherwise to look!  So now we will be looking.

@CoastalWx misses having access to the IBM GRAF!  LOL.

He used to post the “Steffi” here from time to time. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

48 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Is this the one where runaway iceberg got smoked?

Yeah pretty sure he did.  Maybe not the absolute worst but bad enough.