Significant Severe Weather Event Possible for NNE on July 14 into July 15, 2026

[Winter Wizard]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I just can't get over the environment. 50-60 knots of bulk shear per mesoanalysis with >40 knots of effective shear. Forecast is for ~200 m2/s2 of of effective helicity with MLCAPE approaching and exceeding 2000-2500 J/KG. Forecast hodos. Based on what CAMS are spitting out its very difficult to believe we will come out of today without any significant severe. Hopefully anyone camping or out in those areas is aware and has shelter plans.

 

Hopefully the moose are aware.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I just can't get over the environment. 50-60 knots of bulk shear per mesoanalysis with >40 knots of effective shear. Forecast is for ~200 m2/s2 of of effective helicity with MLCAPE approaching and exceeding 2000-2500 J/KG. Forecast hodos. Based on what CAMS are spitting out its very difficult to believe we will come out of today without any significant severe. Hopefully anyone camping or out in those areas is aware and has shelter plans.

 

The thing about this event is that even if we blow the surface based opportunity, you could still rip some elevated hailers through with golf balls or greater.

[tamarack]

50 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

About as useless as today’s event then. An EF3 will probably rip up a few million trees and no one will know. 

I don't know if Maine has ever had a confirmed EF3 (or stronger).

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I don't know if Maine has ever had a confirmed EF3 (or stronger).

They have not. But it is also exceedingly difficult to rate up to EF3 with tree damage alone.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The thing about this event is that even if we blow the surface based opportunity, you could still rip some elevated hailers through with golf balls or greater.

For sure. Tons of CAPE up in the hail zone 

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Looking at the sat pics this morning there are lots of fires burning in Southern Ontario.  The thick smoke plume is moving into our area.  How much is this going to affect the severe storms later for NNE?   Also the MCS is creating a lot of cloud cover especially this morning.  So we are not getting much insolation.  Maybe this will reduce convection later?

When the dynamics/forcing are strong and an EML present, diurnal heating is less important.  Not that it does not matter at all, it does, esp. for sig tor, but I will tell you, on July 10, 1989, after the AM tstms w/ the warm front in region, it remained mostly cloudy (thick high OVC) over much of the region, and this did not impede things at all w/ 3 discrete supercells -- SE NH, central MA (CoastalWx got it in Brockton eventually!), and the monster HP that tracked from W of ALB to LI (WxWiz's dream storm!!!).

BDL was something 68/66 when the warm front passed July 10, 1989, and a few hours later 86/74, this was w/ lots of clouds present.  Strong WA and moisture advection overcame the lack of insolation.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Yeah tons of clouds and smoke here in Maine.  Temps are underperforming.

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

12z HRRR keeping severe weather going in the GYX CWA until 08-09z tomorrow

Incredible LTG show incoming tonight!  EML FTW!

7/1 was good in that you have CONS flickering LTGIC esp. in the mid and upper part of the CBs, but CG and CC LTG overall was about avg.  This situation is more potent, so the LTG should be high-end for all types!

The tornadic HP monster that tracked from W of ALB to LI on July 10, 1989 had 12,500 CGs in it first 5 hr of existence.  Here is a CG plot from that day (WxWiz - "I will treasure this image FOREVER!:).

 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

They have not. But it is also exceedingly difficult to rate up to EF3 with tree damage alone.

And the biggest windthrow events since we moved to Maine in 1973 were straight line winds.  In November of 1974, about 12" of wet snow followed by strong NW gales flattened about 3,000 acres on the SW corner of Baxter Park.  Because Governor Baxter's deeds of trust, the only salvage permitted was along the park roads for safety reasons.  In 1977 all that well-seasoned wood was consumed by a wildfire.  The other 3,000-acre blowdown was only 10-15 miles northwest from the Baxter damage - a powerful southeast storm (we had gusts to 50 at Fort Kent) in late October 1980 tipped the spruce-fir stands on T4R11 (mostly); I saw that area from the air in June of 1981 and it looked like a giant version of oats lodged by an August downpour.  Essentially all that wood was salvaged by Great Northern.

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Has there been any other occasion with a 10% hatched for tornadoes in New England?

I do not think so, at least for ME, but 10% tor as an area SPC uses did not exist prior to the mid 2010s (correction, saw the other post for the 2010 10% in SNE, so when SPC started using probs? - 2000?), just like ENH and MRGL did not.  I think the tor probs used to go 2, 5, 15, etc.  Yet you get these hype-masters going, "first time ev-A 10% tor prob in ME!" (same for ENH).  Well, yes, but you are leaving out the short history here. Omitting key details that would otherwise deflate their hype.

That being said, I do not recall any svr day w/ such a high risk for supercell/tors for NW ME.  In fact, I do not think there has been a F3/EF3+ tor in ME/NH/VT, at least using the SPC database that goes back to 1950.  Using the Tornado Project, only F3/EF3+ for NNE is the Sep 1821 cntrl NH tor.

However, given the sparse population of NNE, esp. NW ME, sig tors, along w/ many weak tors, have unquestionably been missed.

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

We've had 10% hatched before but this is the first time with the CIG additions which only became operational some months ago 

Not 10% in ME though, right?

[Chrisrotary12]

Storms dying as they approach the border. 

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That was a pike SUP that nailed BOS and Revere. I don't think there was much anywhere else.

Was this the storm that had a crazy narrow solid line of CGs that spanned almost all of MA WSW to ENE?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Not 10% in ME though, right?

No, this is the first time its happened since SPC introduced that. 

[Cyclone-68]

I wonder how this would look on top of Mt Washington as it rolls thru tonight lol 

[Winter Wizard]

6 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Not 10% in ME though, right?

10% snuck into southern Maine on 6/6/10 and western Maine 6/23/24. But this is the first 10% risk in that area and by far the most widespread in the state.

Also, there hasn't been a tornado in 6 years there.

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

This kind of event has so much potential in New England for main reason that you rotate the entire flow pattern and create something more akin to what happens in the Midwest.

Around here you typically have much more stable air to the southeast, the complete opposite of central CONUS severe weather. Northwest flow allows stable air to be in the right top quadrant relative to the storms. Check out the line of cumulus marking the surface based instability. Also the forecast for theta-e later today. That marks the warm front, and storm motion is parallel to this. So this is the exact orientation you need for long tracked supercellular storms.

Odd mesoscale feature that cloud line.  Something you more typically see in the Plains where anything is possible convective-wise!

WPC shows no warm front anywhere but there has to be something there looking at the thickness packing alone across srn Quebec to ern ME.
 

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

The same can be said anywhere really when it comes to lapse rates. There was a setup in the midwest a few months back which was flagged with higher tornado probabilities and potential for strong and long-tracked tornadoes but that never materialized...and it was a setup in which they had relatively weak lapse rates. It truly is hard to get a full fledged higher end severe weather outbreak without the present of steep lapse rates. 

The lapse rates here that day were horrible...but I recall they weren't modeled to be as bad as what actually transpired. 

WxWiz, I used to have a nickname for CoastalWx - EML MAN!  I think I will give the name to you now! 

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

The thing about this event is that even if we blow the surface based opportunity, you could still rip some elevated hailers through with golf balls or greater.

For reference, the biggest hail in New England is 4"  in SW ME on 6/1/1986.  Here is the Storm Data entry.
 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

10% snuck into southern Maine on 6/6/10 and western Maine 6/23/24. But this is the first 10% risk in that area and by far the most widespread in the state.

Also, there hasn't been a tornado in 6 years there.

I wouldn't be surprised if that areas gets more tornadoes than what's realized. Dual-pol will make this easier but I bet if we had the data there would be a secondary max (if not overall max) of severe weather instances across that part of Maine, its just it does unreported because of population density. They probably end up with an overlap of favorable ingredients more times than the remainder of the region. Far enough north to be influenced by the stronger jet dynamics/shortwaves and far enough south to tap into warmer/humid air.

[weatherwiz]

MCD out...60% chance for a watch 

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

They have not. But it is also exceedingly difficult to rate up to EF3 with tree damage alone.

Neither has VT.  NH only one is the Sep 1821 event.

[Cyclone-68]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

MCD out...60% chance for a watch 

I wonder if they go with a tornado watch?

[Winter Wizard]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wouldn't be surprised if that areas gets more tornadoes than what's realized. Dual-pol will make this easier but I bet if we had the data there would be a secondary max (if not overall max) of severe weather instances across that part of Maine, its just it does unreported because of population density. They probably end up with an overlap of favorable ingredients more times than the remainder of the region. Far enough north to be influenced by the stronger jet dynamics/shortwaves and far enough south to tap into warmer/humid air.

Certainly possible, it is one of the most desolate regions in the entire country and it's rare to get any kind of chaser traffic. Still, that's an impressive streak and more than double the previous. I guess you could say Maine is overdue. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

I wonder if they go with a tornado watch?

Not sure what the brown shading implies but I'm sure a tornado watch would be most likely. Kind of shocked though only 60% chance of issuance...but that is covering any potential for stuff to pop later afternoon. I think the real concern is more evening and early overnight so may be too early for a watch on that stuff. So we may see a watch soon and then more later 

[vortex95]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

No, this is the first time its happened since SPC introduced that. 

Wait, no or yes?  This is the first time for a ME 10% tor risk you mean?

[weatherwiz]

@CoastalWx post earlier about watching southwest of where SPC has is looking good. Hourly runs of the HRRR are beginning to get a bit more aggressive with activity back across upstate NY, northern VT, and norther NH. Stuff may even get closer to central VT/NH. May see a southward expansion of the enhanced at 20z

[vortex95]

16 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I wonder how this would look on top of Mt Washington as it rolls thru tonight lol 

Stranger things have happened!  How about this from July 1987?  I think I will be a 2.5 mi wide F4 and cross the Continental Divide!
https://www.tornadotalk.com/teton-wilderness-wy-tornado-july-21-1987/

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Wait, no or yes?  This is the first time for a ME 10% tor risk you mean?

whoops...

Not the first time a part of Maine has been in 10% tor, first time for 10% hatched. But this is the farthest north for 10%. 

@Winter Wizard I think posted a map a page or two back showing the data from Iowa St

[vortex95]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wouldn't be surprised if that areas gets more tornadoes than what's realized. Dual-pol will make this easier but I bet if we had the data there would be a secondary max (if not overall max) of severe weather instances across that part of Maine, its just it does unreported because of population density. They probably end up with an overlap of favorable ingredients more times than the remainder of the region. Far enough north to be influenced by the stronger jet dynamics/shortwaves and far enough south to tap into warmer/humid air.

Dual pol makes it easier w/ the TDS.  It really narrows things down and gives confidence, so the NWS may be more inclined to send a survey to the area(s) despite the remote location,  And now we have drones to scout out areas that are not accessible by road/foot.

And I think at times if a strong TDS is present in a very remote area, the NWS will count that as a tor even if no survey or ground reports.