Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7

[Damage In Tolland]

Soaking rains in and around Taunton 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Creepy stalkers 

Anyway I hope you get this man
Hit me back, just to chat
Truly yours, your biggest fan
This is Stein
 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Huh, look at that.  Some knew, some didn’t.

Incredible 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been dumping that heavy , soaking small droplet rain all day. Has not stopped. . I ran in it this morning and it just keeps building overhead. The stuff adds up. No one could have seen or forecast that . It’s probably similar to the soaking upslope rains you get all the time. I’m not exactly sure, but I’d bet there’s some small scale upslope component to this stuff today 

Analog 850 inflow is very wet for you. Some knew

[Torch Tiger]

It did rain here. W

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Kev over an inch today me .22 he didn't knew 

 

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

 

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

You earn it salesman 

 

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

 

 

Some knew.. you will have 3 by the time this is done.. congrats

All of you were forecasting regional flooding and a few had 4-6” of rain for the area . None of those things happened. So sure there was more rain than I thought, but nothing like what you called for at various points the last  few days . Let’s look in the mirror and own up.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Falmouth is officially over 5 inches. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Congrats on nearly 3”… everyone wins.

We tried to tell him yesterday afternoon…he refused the good advice. Ya hate to see it. CT was always positioned to do well in this. Still raining here as we speak. 

[WinterWolf]

Stein dead and buried, and cremated here. When all is said and done..we’ll be upper 3’s to near 4” from this.  Yes, no flooding, which was good, but a soaking soaker for sure. 

[SouthCoastMA]

1.1"

[weatherwiz]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 

 

All of you were forecasting regional flooding and a few had 4-6” of rain for the area . None of those things happened. So sure there was more rain than I thought, but nothing like what you called for at various points the last  few days . Let’s look in the mirror and own up.

The amount of hype going around on this was insane. This was going to be nothing more but a much needed soaking rain for many...that is it. All these posts about models showing widespread 4-8" of rain, which by the way were showing jackpots across northwest CT and north when the axis of highest rains which much farther south which was mentioned of likely occurring. All this talk everywhere about flooding rains and blah blah. Steady soaking rain with a widespread 1-3" and of course some 3-6" amounts south where the axis ended up being....and of course spread out over a long duration. I mean were there even any flash flood warnings lol (maybe 1?).

One of the most overhyped rain events ever. Nothing more than a soaking rain but I guess since how everyone thinks we're a desert now 3-4" is alarming 

[CoastalWx]

Finally, getting good rains.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The amount of hype going around on this was insane. This was going to be nothing more but a much needed soaking rain for many...that is it. All these posts about models showing widespread 4-8" of rain, which by the way were showing jackpots across northwest CT and north when the axis of highest rains which much farther south which was mentioned of likely occurring. All this talk everywhere about flooding rains and blah blah. Steady soaking rain with a widespread 1-3" and of course some 3-6" amounts south where the axis ended up being....and of course spread out over a long duration. I mean were there even any flash flood warnings lol (maybe 1?).

One of the most overhyped rain events ever. Nothing more than a soaking rain but I guess since how everyone thinks we're a desert now 3-4" is alarming 

Ryan was concerned that some areas were in for flooding too…so what can you do? Modeling was throwing those ideas around. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Mm... to be fair, not sure how much of a "bust" this is...

It rained spot 8" totals ivo of slow moving convection around the mid and upper M/A - which by nature of what that is, yeah, it's very localized ... granted.  But doing so in a general 2-4" coverage from Delware to SE NH is reasonable.    

What busts in my mind is the amplitude in the models - to some degree, that was the case this time, just like we've seen so many times in the past since these models got updated, circa 2015, and have been consistently biased about ever since.   96 to 200+ hour range tends to "end the world" far more frequently than the pedestrian aspect that actually takes place.  Some normalization is all but dependable.

Again.. a filtration that still ... fails to modulate impressions of guidance by humans.   This is what leads to the 2nd form of bust...   (these are two concurrent busts moving past one another).   Humans than exaggerating... exaggeration is not ever likely to end well for verification.

Removing the wanton human goober factor, and accounting for the known model amp bias... it rained within reason. 

Someone else mentioned something that I liked the other day... Maybe it was Scott or Vortex95 ?  but raining 6" is impressive no matter what, but it's different animal entirely when that occurs in 2 hours rather than 2 days.

Basically ...it rained a decent amount over a large multi-regional aspect.  Perspectives will never land on objective reality.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ryan was concerned that some areas were in for flooding too…so what can you do? Modeling was throwing those ideas around. 

Concern for some localized flash flooding, sure. But some of what was going around made it seem like flooding was going to be a large or widespread issue. But this is becoming a big problem in forecasting when it comes to some of these products. Folks see ensembles going crazy and all of a sudden alarm bells are sounded without fully divulging into all the data and then you have these products like extreme forecast index which further adds to the alarm bells. Yes, sure when you have these products showing something extreme there definitely should be concern, but they can't just be taken at face value nor should they be. Same goes with severe weather and winter weather...even in the west, a ton of events will get all hyped up with talk of tornado outbreaks and strong tornadoes because supercell composite parameter/significant tornado parameter forecasts are "through the roof" then the event comes and there are barely any tornadoes, let alone strong ones. And of course winter...D12 snowmaps show widespread 20-30" storms and here goes the social media hype for a massive blizzard. 

While sure there were guidance throwing around widespread 4-8" rain amounts and isolated higher totals, it was pretty clear that was not going to be the case and any amounts that excessive would most likely be extremely isolated or confined closer to where the warm front would be and it was also clear these totals would be spread out over a longer duration. Overall flood risk appeared low. 

Like I said earlier, watch in a few weeks we will get a setup with produces flooding and there will be little talk of the potential. For whatever reason it seems anytime talk of flooding is possible it never pans out, then we get setups where there is little mention of flooding possibility and you have problems all over. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Tomorrow and Thursday may be sneaky hot... 

American MOS is 87 to 89 -ish, but after all this soil modulation from N VA all the way up .. and not much actual air mass change, the HI's will be 90+

[WxWatcher007]

40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ryan was concerned that some areas were in for flooding too…so what can you do? Modeling was throwing those ideas around. 

I don't think any reasonable forecaster was too far out there? I mean my forecast was a general 2-4" in CT with high end localized flash flooding potential, mitigated by the duration of rain and relatively dry conditions beforehand. Also said the axis of heaviest if it set up over CT could produce 6+ somewhere. All the numbers pretty much verified but there was very little flash flooding. 

I didn't see others saying 1954 was walking through the door but then again I don't really follow what others say. It's totally possible to write and communicate a good forecast without ripping and reading model output verbatim. Everyone serious knew the big rain signal over the region was going to end up focused in much smaller areas. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, I think earlier on the worry was about those situations I talk about, you get the mesolow with a rotating 50+ DBZ, tropical air over an area and you’re gonna get 3 to 4 inches of rain per hour or more causing flash flooding. Some of the models were hinting at that. That seemed to be a little bit more to the south as we got to game time but couple days out that was a potential.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The amount of hype going around on this was insane. This was going to be nothing more but a much needed soaking rain for many...that is it. All these posts about models showing widespread 4-8" of rain, which by the way were showing jackpots across northwest CT and north when the axis of highest rains which much farther south which was mentioned of likely occurring. All this talk everywhere about flooding rains and blah blah. Steady soaking rain with a widespread 1-3" and of course some 3-6" amounts south where the axis ended up being....and of course spread out over a long duration. I mean were there even any flash flood warnings lol (maybe 1?).

One of the most overhyped rain events ever. Nothing more than a soaking rain but I guess since how everyone thinks we're a desert now 3-4" is alarming 

Better than the dimwits who called it over yesterday because the radar lightened up.

[Damage In Tolland]

Why are the rainfall echoes on radar moving ENE over MA and NW in CT?

Is it just low level flow ? Or is there some type of mid level circulation over CT?

[SouthCoastMA]

It's been a steady rain from here up to the south shore in the past hour..starting to catch up a bit with earlier expectations 

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are the rainfall echoes on radar moving ENE over MA and NW in CT?

Is it just low level flow ? Or is there some type of mid level circulation over CT?

That is mid level stuff. Lots going on. 

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 

 

All of you were forecasting regional flooding and a few had 4-6” of rain for the area . None of those things happened. So sure there was more rain than I thought, but nothing like what you called for at various points the last  few days . Let’s look in the mirror and own up.

Spin spin.. you were wrong.. own it 

[CoastalWx]

Man we needed this. Nothing crazy just good soaking rains. Windy too.

[Torch Tiger]

Good July noreaster. Yeah winds are ripping ha

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man we needed this. Nothing crazy just good soaking rains. Windy too.

Yes sir, I mentioned that yesterday, it was steady moderate all day here, and some heavy too, but a real soaker.  Good stuff. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

I'm very happy.  Not a drop here in Maine for vacation.  Maximizing lake activities and keeping tents and outdoor things dry while at the same time knowing we got a good drink back home to alleviate the burnt dry vegetation.