Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7

[powderfreak]

It’s like one big thunderstorm.  Lightning across three states.

 

[WxWatcher007]

Definitely juicy with those reports out west. BDR put .69” in the gauge in about an hour. 

[OrangeCTWX]

Already some 4-6 radar estimated rain totals out in the western Hudson valley area.

[Torch Tiger]

Let's gooooo!!!! 

[Torch Tiger]

Love the overlapping bands, and hopefully that sets up right over north-central CT.  We all want at least 6 to 12" in a good swath HFD-PVD

[vortex95]

BDR 1.23" so far as of 4am.   Radar has the look CoastalWx *hates* in the winter b/c he knows there will be a sharp line between S+ and "diamond dust!"  And the 06z HRRR squishes things S more.  00Z RRFS was more N, but lacks the crazy QPF.

HRRR shows some mesoscale thingee forming in ern LI Sound and tracking E.  That has the big QPF but largely stays offshore except for MVY/ACK.  Also, half-decent backlash comma head pcpn at the end.

Sfc only low goes from 1015 to 1009 mb, but is tight/coherent and sets up a small solid gradient along the S Coast and CC.  Wind pretty good for July.  Sustained max 25G40KT shown front end and 30G45KT max in the rear GON-CQX-PYM.  Li'l July Nor'easter!

06z 3/12km NAMs way N.  So fcst uncertainty quite high still, esp. given the event is already underway.
 

[weatherwiz]

Damn it, I forgot to cover the grill before bed last night after making burgers  

[kdxken]

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I still think .50-.75 is the best forecast around here . An inch of things break right 

Nailed it! 

 

[BrianW]

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Let's keep South

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Going to be in the have nots here 

[weatherwiz]

Looking like the max totals will def be towards the coast but probably nothing obscene. Probably some totals up around 4-5"...maybe someone gets 6"

[Damage In Tolland]

.45 so far . That HP really nosing far into SNE. 

[kdxken]

Skirting the edge. Dry so far. 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

.45 so far . That HP really nosing far into SNE. Shocking the most boring scenario wins again 

Western CT will do well. Then it will taper off SE so most of RI and SE Mass get very little. Looked like that for days 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Western CT will do well. Then it will taper off SE so most of RI and SE Mass get very little. Looked like that for days 

Your heavy rains come tonight along with another wife 

[Brian5671]

1.03 here so far-nice soaker and it's a Monday so who cares

[NoCORH4L]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Damn it, I forgot to cover the grill before bed last night after making burgers  

It'll be fine, sometimes I wonder if covers are more a hassle than they are worth.  They also become a bee haven.

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

It'll be fine, sometimes I wonder if covers are more a hassle than they are worth.  They also become a bee haven.

Good point. Towards the end of last summer when I would take the cover off before using it I would have bees flying out from it

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

It'll be fine, sometimes I wonder if covers are more a hassle than they are worth.  They also become a bee haven.

I only use ours in the winter time.

[ineedsnow]

Think later this afternoon and tonight will be wild for some

[weatherwiz]

19 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Think later this afternoon and tonight will be wild for some

IDK This really doesn't seem all that impressive nor does it look like it is going to evolve to be so. Just a good ole fashion steady, soaking rain. Highest totals probably end up coastal CT/Long Island. Congrats to the Fish in the Sound

[Ginx snewx]

[Ginx snewx]

16 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All I know is the 4 CT northern counties especially northern halves,  are dry to very dry . There’s been less than 3” of rain since June 1 in most places . With wagons mainly south on guidance today , I still think coastal CT down to Philly are going to be where any issues might be with coastal CT being less at risk than NYC to Philly/ SE PA.

I don't know about you but last 2 days 1.61 .

Also See Legro post 

[moneypitmike]

7 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Love the overlapping bands, and hopefully that sets up right over north-central CT.  We all want at least 6 to 12" in a good swath HFD-PVD

 

At least it will be easy to shovel.

[Chrisrotary12]

Easy forecast for my location: 0-3”

[CoastalWx]

12z hrrr went drunk. wtf is that lol. 

[ineedsnow]

53 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IDK This really doesn't seem all that impressive nor does it look like it is going to evolve to be so. Just a good ole fashion steady, soaking rain. Highest totals probably end up coastal CT/Long Island. Congrats to the Fish in the Sound

12z HRRR going wild in some spots

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

12z hrrr went drunk. wtf is that lol. 

 

Just now, ineedsnow said:

12z HRRR going wild in some spots

didn't even see your post.. either its drunk or someone floods 

[weatherwiz]

Goes very wild with the llvl jet