Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Damage In Tolland]

Since you’re tracking other states than where you live for daily and monthly temps..could you check Boise, Idaho and Santa Fe , NM and post please ?

[Brewbeer]

43 minutes ago, kdxken said:

53° / 51° another cool start to what it looks like a beautiful day. Mild up beginning the second week of August?  Hartford now stands at 0.4 above average for the month. What happened to the hottest month ever?

thank you, I appreciate you keeping us posted about MBY

delightfully refreshing sub 60 morning out there for a run, or just drinking coffee

[kdxken]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Since you’re tracking other states than where you live for daily and monthly temps..could you check Boise, Idaho and Santa Fe , NM and post please ?

Nah, I will stay local. Worcester - eight straight days of below normal temperatures and temperatures in the '70s. Remarkable considering peak summer. The hot crowd can't win for losing.

[kdxken]

 Taunton's rental unit for next week? He doesn't have much luck with vacations.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like might be congrats Dendy with the heaviest rain Tuesday 

[ineedsnow]

59 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Nah, I will stay local. Worcester - eight straight days of below normal temperatures and temperatures in the '70s. Remarkable considering peak summer. The hot crowd can't win for losing.

many sites now below normal for high temps... the lows are what is keep this month above average so far.. but hottest Summer ever 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

many sites now below normal for high temps... the lows are what is keep this month above average so far.. but hottest Summer ever 

...yeah BUT the parade of Cat 5 hurricanes will soon be upon us...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like might be congrats Dendy with the heaviest rain Tuesday 

Huge model differences. Euro washes bridges away in NNE on Wednesday/Thursday while the Canadian and gfs are pretty much dry next week 

[Layman]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...yeah BUT the parade of Cat 5 hurricanes will soon be upon us...

 

Been out of town for the past week and haven't paid any attention to weather at all.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Huge model differences. Euro washes bridges away in NNE on Wednesday/Thursday while the Canadian and gfs are pretty much dry next week 

It’s possible it’s just humid with afternoon/ evening showers and storms next week. Doesn’t look like all day washouts . But there are signals of heaviest qpf in NNE

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Layman said:

 

Been out of town for the past week and haven't paid any attention to weather at all.

 

There has been nothing to pay attention to for the vast majority of the area...lol

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

53° / 51° another cool start to what it looks like a beautiful day. Mild up beginning the second week of August?  Hartford now stands at 0.4 above average for the month. What happened to the hottest month ever?

enjoy your warm rainy winter

[dendrite]

Hopefully the euro/icon have the right idea for midweek. Otherwise we’re facing a July with under 1” of rain. 0.89” so far. 00z AI GFS was really wet too, but it backed way off at 6z. 

[forkyfork]

59 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

many sites now below normal for high temps... the lows are what is keep this month above average so far.. but hottest Summer ever 

who expected that with a nino this strong? it's pretty nuts that we got any of these heat waves in the first place

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

53° / 51° another cool start to what it looks like a beautiful day. Mild up beginning the second week of August?  Hartford now stands at 0.4 above average for the month. What happened to the hottest month ever?

Heat/humidity lasted 4 days, 5th and following has been slightly BN.  78/46 here yesterday.

[Damage In Tolland]

Warm up really begins on the 31st. But that whole first two week period of Augdewst looks deep deep summer 

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Heat/humidity lasted 4 days, 5th and following has been slightly BN.  78/46 here yesterday.

if this nino happened 50 years ago this month would be -4

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

if this nino happened 50 years ago this month would be -4

Agreed ... but aren't they almost mutually exclusive?

50 years ago ( personal conjecture)  this on-setting NINO and it's weird 'ominous' portends that seems almost metaphysically prescient ... whatever it is and all of it probably can't happen.  

Why?

Because this has a non-linear force  - not readily observable - coming from 'unrealized' climate change.  An aspect that is quite plausibly constructively interfering.  The oceans have absorbed 90% of the warming that "should have" been atmospherically kinetic and or stored in WV, since the Industrial Revolution. How much absorption can happen before something is forcibly given back..? Realization forcibly occurring, incrementally.

Like what happen in the 2023. That global pan-systemic temperature burst that spring is give back. 

As an aside... maybe that synergy is sensible, like collectively in a subconscious awareness, which is why-for ( probably ) the prescient portends. It doesn't hurt that the models are actually jacking the historical this and that, either.  But it's like watching a comeback in sports.  The team may still be down 10 points with time a factor, but you know somehow some way they're winning that game.    

In this case tho, we're the losing side... It seems this NINO is catapulting off a background that is "elastically" under tension.  It trying to restore to equilibrium at all times.  That restorative force is in the upward ( climate change ) direction ... 2023, this NINO, they become like leaks in the damn, and that tension is squeezing through. 

Seriously though, I speculate that the this NINO is in a sort of synergistic/constructive feedback with the background state. A state that could not have been the case 50 years ago, because obviously the background was significantly enough different.  Less donuts in the doughnut stuffing machine's cartridge that Homer Simpson experienced in Hell.    

[tamarack]

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

if this nino happened 50 years ago this month would be -4

Maybe, but the 30-year norms of 50 years ago were about 2F lower than the 1991-2020s.

[forkyfork]

56 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Maybe, but the 30-year norms of 50 years ago were about 2F lower than the 1991-2020s.

and why is that

[Damage In Tolland]

Some wildfire smoke up there today from the PAC NW fires.