Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[JACKASS]

For those hoping for damage;

May a tree in your yard get uprooted into your house, rain pour in the busted roof, and black mold make it unlivable.

There, ya all happy now?

LOL

[kdxken]

16 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

This place is something.

It’s either wish casting for unbearable cold and snow in the winter or unbearable heat and humidity in the summer.

Everything in between is something to bitch about.

SMFH!

Are you new here?

[JACKASS]

Just now, kdxken said:

Are you new here?

Same shit, year in and year out.

Sad.

[JACKASS]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Are you new here?

Makes me wonder if people even go outside anymore.

It’s almost like they look out the window and are disappointed a catastrophe isn’t happening.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Conquistadors win.

What a day. Beautiful all around.

Was emotional seeing Messi take in the praise for him after the match.

End of an era for him at the helm of the Argentinians.

While the rest of his team decided to start a brawl with Spain. 

[Torch Tiger]

16 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

Makes me wonder if people even go outside anymore.

It’s almost like they look out the window and are disappointed a catastrophe isn’t happening.

Not everyone likes what you like 

[JACKASS]

14 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Not everyone likes what you like 

The general public loves what I like.

Boring weather is what makes the masses happy!

Joe Nobody is is having the time of his life grilling tonight, knowing his life is about to suck ass in the morning, but the weather in begging him to fire up that grill.

Even his kids are happy to be eating outside tonight.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Conquistadors win.

What a day. Beautiful all around.

Was emotional seeing Messi take in the praise for him after the match.

End of an era for him at the helm of the Argentinians.

It was good to see Spain win but I would not count him out for 2030 just yet. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Got down to 48°.  

[Chrisrotary12]

9 hours ago, JACKASS said:

Same shit, year in and year out.

Sad.

It would be different in here if something exciting happened occasionally but it just doesn’t anymore. Straight up boredom around these parts for the last decade.

I agree with you that the vast majority of people want yesterday’s weather, but the people in here at least want excitement. It’s been so boring that we have been left to post about rain and smoke. 
Occasionally a blizzard impacts southeast Mass but that’s about it.  

[Modfan2]

51F for the low in E CT, CoC day on tap! 

[kdxken]

"In terms of rainfall, it looks like areas along the southern CT, south coast and the Cape and Islands stand to see the most rain, at the expense of interior Southern New England. Ensemble 24-hr QPFprobs paint moderately high (40-70%) probs of rain totals AOA 1 inch along the southern/southeast coast, and lower (< 40%) to the north and west. These areas have been getting quite a bit of rain lately, especially out over Cape Cod. "

 

Rinse and repeat.

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

51F for the low in E CT, CoC day on tap! 

Looks like a banner week excluding Tuesday and Wednesday.

[moneypitmike]

Woke up to 53* here in Mattapoisett.

Progged hights for Pit2 this week:

Today 80

Tues  76

Wed  79 with showers. 

Thurs  80

Fri       71

Sat     72

Sun    73

 

All in all, I'd call that that COC.

[jbenedet]

20 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's been top 5 hottest June 1 through July 15 period with mostly ridging in the east. Only now are troughs being introduced. 

Is this for Jersey or New England?

 

[jbenedet]

47 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Looks like a banner week excluding Tuesday and Wednesday.

Nah. Tuesday/wed is part of the banner. Wall to wall sun is too much of a good thing. Need the rain to keep the landscape happy and the water bills in check.

[SnoSki14]

26 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Is this for Jersey or New England?

 

Both but people have the weather memory of a goldfish. A couple cooler days and suddenly they think summer hasn't been record hot. 

[jbenedet]

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Both but people have the weather memory of a goldfish. A couple cooler days and suddenly they think summer hasn't been record hot. 

 

 

 

 

[moneypitmike]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Both but people have the weather memory of a goldfish. A couple cooler days and suddenly they think summer hasn't been record hot. 

The season is not record hot/cold until it's over.  Let's' see how the remainder plays out.

[jbenedet]

If you want to make a cogent background warming argument it’s that we have BN persistence in the northeast but N to AN tendency.

 

[jbenedet]

Gardeners and farmers don’t forget the year ago pattern. It’s imprinted on us like a scar. 
 

A few of us here fit that mold.

[dendrite]

39 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

If you want to make a cogent background warming argument it’s that we have BN persistence in the northeast but N to AN tendency.

 

Yeah unless we’re getting 10” of rain in a month and a bunch of 60-70° ratters it’s tough to pull off BN summer months now…even with 1991-2020 normals.

CON had 14 mins in the 40s or colder in July 1965 and an extreme of 35°. That’s hard enough for SLK to pull off today. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

If you want to make a cogent background warming argument it’s that we have BN persistence in the northeast but N to AN tendency.

 

Nice condensed way to put that ... 

...I've also been impressing upon this phenomenon myself since last October...

7 or so of the last 9 months have have been cooler relative to the planetary seemingly fixed hot spots, yet still warmer than normal relative to our own climate means.  

Relativity is baking people's perception, perhaps.  We base our impressions on a combination of sensible experiences over the time... mixed up with "group theory"- haha.  But, here's an example of May and June per NASA's GIS tool - granularity and so forth, notwithstanding.

Clearly there is a preferential/bias to result cooler over eastern mid latitude N America, than it has ( again ... relative to climate) N-S-E-W and abroad.  But combining sensible experience with headlines that rarely include our region when it comes to warmth ... it's a bit obfuscating/false impression making - maybe.  Anyway, we're above normal, just not as much. 

There are a few other cooler nodes as one can clearly see ... I haven't been paying as close attention to those in all honesty - preoccupied by how warm enthusiasts are being tormented locally ( haha).  I wouldn't be shocked however if these are "geological resonant feedback" regions. In other words, wholesale planetary factorization 'sort of' fixing those cool vs warm regions.   Some of that's got to be true.  I mean, the perennial N/A pattern ( PNAP ) has a flat ridge west, nadir-ing flow east, as the westerlies impinge on the western N/A cordillera ... forced up and over, and then Coriolis bends the flow into NVA... etc.. But, that does probably contribute to why our "heat domes" are too transient to be part of the cool kids. Something like that could be normal elsewhere.

[HoarfrostHubb]

46.6F this morning.   Yeesh.  
 

bring me some 90s please. 

[weatherwiz]

This Gulf system is absolutely crap

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This Gulf system is absolutely crap

It almost looks like a TUTT with a sputtering TD underneath.  TUTTs are not providing an anticyclonic geometric outflow when they are over top - opposite in fact.  

What's interesting about that is that TUTT's are often a part of TC evolution.  But, they are near-by ...   not directly overhead. 

The near-by model:  The mechanism/relationship there is that their circulation proximity pulls an outflow channel which improves the mass-restoring inflow potential and the TCs gets a boost.   It's like a pulsar and star and the pulsar siphoning material off the star, and it flows into an accretion disk.  But in this case the TUTT is over top.  No channel.  

I'm not sure that's what is happening here but the general CB exhaust motion doesn't inspire anticyclonic U/A has been established very well, and in fact, the deeper object motion is slowly cyclonic about a broader defined axis with that small surface feature ESE of LA.   Also some NEly shear too

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It almost looks like a TUTT with a sputtering TD underneath.  TUTT are not and anticyclonic outflow over top - opposite.  

What's interesting about that is that TUTT's are often a part of TC evolution.  But, they are near-by ...   not directly overhead. 

The near-by model:  The mechanism/relationship there is that their circulation proximity pulls an outflow channel which improves the mass-restoring inflow potential and the TCs gets a boost.   It's like a pulsar and star and the pulsar siphoning material off the star, and it flows into an accretion disk.  But in this case the TUTT is over top.  No channel.  

I'm not sure that's what is happening here but the general CB exhaust motion doesn't inspire anticyclonic U/A has been established very well, and in fact, the deeper object motion is slowly cyclonic about a broader defined axis with that small surface feature SSE of LA.   Also some NEly shear too

Good stuff on TUTT's. It was essentially a TUTT that lead to this potential, but TUTTs are interesting in the sense that they can help with the initial phases but also can be very bad for TC genesis/strengthening in general. 

This system is certainly fighting stronger shear to the north and also ingesting some dry air. Despite the water temperatures, its really difficult seeing this take off or really becoming anything organized. I was pretty shocked to see TS watches fly but I guess I can sort of understand it because that allows certain protocols from local govt's to be activated. But this looks more like just some areas of heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms, and gusty winds...a.ka. a typical summer afternoon along the Gulf Coast. Seems like any greater storm impacts are going to be confined to the open waters. 

[kdxken]

56 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah unless we’re getting 10” of rain in a month and a bunch of 60-70° ratters it’s tough to pull off BN summer months now…even with 1991-2020 normals.

CON had 14 mins in the 40s or colder in July 1965 and an extreme of 35°. That’s hard enough for SLK to pull off today. 

Absolutely. Today actually feels like summer yore. At least how I remember it.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Good stuff on TUTT's. It was essentially a TUTT that lead to this potential, but TUTTs are interesting in the sense that they can help with the initial phases but also can be very bad for TC genesis/strengthening in general. 

This system is certainly fighting stronger shear to the north and also ingesting some dry air. Despite the water temperatures, its really difficult seeing this take off or really becoming anything organized. I was pretty shocked to see TS watches fly but I guess I can sort of understand it because that allows certain protocols from local govt's to be activated. But this looks more like just some areas of heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms, and gusty winds...a.ka. a typical summer afternoon along the Gulf Coast. Seems like any greater storm impacts are going to be confined to the open waters. 

Heh... that's probably PR.   Being where it is, i.e. not being able to escape that region without hitting land, they can't afford to take chance.   Sometimes these things'll fester for 4 days, while models keep prematurely spinning them up.  Attention wanes... yeah yeah.  Then, all at once on that 5th day, people 'had no idea' it was happening or was going to happen, but the inhibition that was poorly assessed all along, suddenly goes away, and it then m'fugger goes nuts. 

The PR in a situation like that is strategic.  Keep 'em apprised with the headline (watch).   What they can't do is be responsible for any statement that will invariably be interpreted by the Idiocracy as 'okay we don't have to worry' charter boats and tourism and no worries.   For one, the Idiocracy wants to interpret that way ...  To mention also, we live in a litigation-happy society that seems to excuse if not reward people for being Idiots.  But I'm digressing

Meanwhile, if nothing comes of it... Watch is no harm no foul.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... that's probably PR.   Being where it is, i.e. not being able to escape that region without hitting land, they can't afford to take chance.   Sometimes these things'll fester for 4 days, while models keep prematurely spinning them up. Then, all at once on that 5th day, inhibition was poorly assessed, goes away, and it then m'fugger goes nuts. 

The PR in a situation like that is strategic.  Keep 'em apprised with the headline (watch).   What they can't do is be responsible for any statement that will invariably be interpreted by the Idiocracy as 'okay we don't have to worry' charter boats and tourism and no worries.   For one, the Idiocracy wants to interpret that way ...  To mention also, we live in a litigation-happy society that seems to excuse if not reward people for being Idiots.  But I'm digressing

Certainly can't disagree with that. As we've seen the past decade really is you can't trust a storm in the Gulf, especially with the OHC that builds going into the season.