July 2026

[2112wxgrl]

Just lost power in Wantage. We didn’t even get a storm yet. We didn’t even lose power on July 3rd. We’re throwing a grad today. We already have it set up to be inside. But, no power already? Getting windy, though.

[Rmine1]

Looks like things are dying as they march east, which comes as no surprise for most of LI. Especially, along the south shore in western Suffolk. 

[Maureen]

Had a heavy downpour with thunder in Carteret.  In a lull now, just dark.

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1645.html
 
Mesoscale Discussion 1645
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1001 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

   Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181501Z - 181630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible with strong to marginally
   severe storms late this morning. A watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A small linear cluster of storms has recently organized
   in northern New Jersey and adjacent northeast Pennsylvania. Storm
   cores have shown modest deepening on 7 km MRMS CAPPI over the last
   30 minutes. The observed OKX sounding had poor mid-level lapse rates
   (5.3 C/km) but 45 kt of effective shear. Downstream of this current
   activity, cloud cover and smoke have hindered surface heating.
   Low-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep. While
   isolated wind damage is possible late this morning, the severe
   threat should remain marginal on account of very limited buoyancy. A
   watch is not expected.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/18/2026

This is only regarding the morning threat. 

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

This is only regarding the morning threat. 

You don’t say

[NJwx85]

The steady rain in NE PA is drying up. All these things are great signs. Full steam ahead for mid to late afternoon.

[NJwx85]

Just now, IrishRob17 said:

You don’t say

Just wanted to clarify since some would assume it covered the entire days activities.

[hooralph]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This is only regarding the morning threat. 

But why no watch for later yet?

[IrishRob17]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Just wanted to clarify since some would assume it covered the entire days activities.

That’s fair, I like to think most of us here understand how these discussions work but weenies may not. The clouds and smoke as mentioned will obviously help tell the story of what may or may not happen later. 

[RockawayRowdies]

If this is the appetizer, can't wait for the entree

[bluewave]

Flash flood threat NYC metro with this warm frontal training first round of convection. Some hail also beginning to show up. Tropical PWATS with this. 

 

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0766
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1128 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181528Z - 182128Z

Summary...A couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall are expected into late this afternoon.  Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding
in urban areas.

Discussion...A thermal boundary extends through portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States.  Near the boundary, showers and thunderstorms
are showing some slight backbuilding character while moving
northeast into New York City.  Precipitable water values are
1.4-2".  MU CAPE is 500-5000 J/kg across the region, with the
maximum on the Eastern Shore.  Effective bulk shear is ~40 kts.

One bout of heavy rainfall in the very near term is expected
across southeast NY and portions of CT, while later development is
expected to the southwest which should ride up the boundary back
into the Tri-State area.  Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible
either from backbuilding, cell training, or mesocyclone formation.
 This would be most problematic in urban areas. 

[NEG NAO]

the wild card throughout the day is how the smoke will affect the daytime heating and instability - this is an odd setup

[BoulderWX]

Picked up a little over an inch already and looks like another batch of moderate rain should be moving in from PA over the next couple of hours 

[steve392]

Light rain but crazy amounts of thunder and lightning.  

[NEG NAO]

now we are having fast developing pop up storms one right over 287 and 78 junction in nj

[Stormlover74]

Another storm coming

[redsox91]

23 minutes ago, 2112wxgrl said:

Just lost power in Wantage. We didn’t even get a storm yet. We didn’t even lose power on July 3rd. We’re throwing a grad today. We already have it set up to be inside. But, no power already? Getting windy, though.

Lost power in Sparta

[SnoSki14]

I see the flood threat but I don't see a severe threat. Think we get downgraded to slight. It's already almost noon with zero clearing to speak of. 

[Evie3]

Just got an emergency message (nixle) from my local municipal PD here in northern Somerset County about a tornado watch through tomorrow morning.  Nothing from the NWS...I see the flash flood watch but I don't know where the reference to the tornado watch comes from...

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Another storm coming

thats the fast developing pop up storm i just mentioned

[hooralph]

The way this thing is setting up it's gonna drop a lot of rain on the city to kick us off. Window-rattling thunder already on the UWS.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Evie3 said:

Just got an emergency message (nixle) from my local municipal PD here in northern Somerset County about a tornado watch through tomorrow morning.  Nothing from the NWS...I see the flash flood watch but I don't know where the reference to the tornado watch comes from...

Yeah no tornado watch yet

[Stormlover74]

Wow wicked lightning 

[rclab]

Downpour with thunder in progress. As always ….

 

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Another storm coming

Yeah another downpour here now with some lightning.

[Stormlover74]

Getting strike after strike. This storm is blowing up

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Getting strike after strike. This storm is blowing up

These storms have been nice -- not the very strong wind that would cause damage, but lots of lightning. 

[TJW014]

South wind starting to crank up. 

[dmillz25]

Oh shit that was loud!

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I see the flood threat but I don't see a severe threat. Think we get downgraded to slight. It's already almost noon with zero clearing to speak of. 

Don’t you ever get tired of downplaying every event before it starts? All of this is following the forecast thus far.