6/16-6/18 Severe Weather

[sbnwx85]

From 10 percent double-hatched to two percent.

[King James]

Kind of a bummer how this played out locally after much of the forecasting had IKK pretty comfortably in the warm sector.

[luckyweather]

92 stl 60 pia is just so wild to stare at in late June. 

[IWXwx]

IWX obviously isn't bailing due to the south trend, mainly because of their thought that we are still in the game south of 30 with the warm front, as you alluded to earlier. From discussions, I got the idea that they aren't very happy with SPC's demoting us to slight, but of course they won't come out and say it, hence their post.

[Chicago Storm]

3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

IWX obviously isn't bailing due to the south trend, mainly because of their thought that we are still in the game south of 30 with the warm front, as you alluded to earlier. From discussions, I got the idea that they aren't very happy with SPC's demoting us to slight, but of course they won't come out and say it, hence their post.

they might want to do another check on observations (radar, satellite, surface obs), because it is definitely over north of us24.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Need a t warning on that Macon county cell

[Chicago Storm]

4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Need a t warning on that Macon county cell

they got duped.

most, if not all of that, is contamination.

[SchaumburgStormer]

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

they got duped.

most, if not all of that, is contamination.

Def had me fooled for a frame or two as well.

[mob1]

Aside from the cells near Springfield (which might be outflow dominant for now, though it seems to be becoming more surfaced based now) the area to watch are there cells here to see if they can remain discrete or semi-discrete as it moves eastward into a loaded environment. 

If it congeals into a line quickly, it obviously greatly diminishes the strong tornado threat. 

[Malacka11]

The low-level clouds turboing by is just absolutely crazy

[CheeselandSkies]

5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

The low-level clouds turboing by is just absolutely crazy

Sign of very strong LL shear. I've seen it when arriving to the target area on nearly every chase day I've had when I've either seen tornadoes, or there were tornadoes in the vicinity but I missed them due to being dumb. Shame it will likely go to waste for anyone north of I-72 today.

[SchaumburgStormer]

ILX just slapping warning on every outflow dominate sup 

[Jackstraw]

Just drove home from a Dr visit and despite all the pessimism I'm seeing a carbon copy of yesterday only stronger. The cloud deck was lowering quickly on my way home and the LLJ was just starting to pick up. Dews are slowly rising. I mean yesterday we had evaporative "steam" like you would have after a quick downpour on a 90 degree day as the sun comes back out. No sun and it was 63 degrees. Same thing right now. No sun and "steam" rising off the road and crops and its 66. Temp on my way home across 30 miles moving North went from 71 to 64 when I got home so the WF is coming N, just not as much as many would like. The stratoform clouds with the rain from the earlier wind bag were starting to break and streak, something I've seen many times before as a windbag gets mixed out. Could it still bust? Sure. But there's a train of Hook and Ladder cells from near LAF back to Kansas City racing East. Any of those gets rooted they're gonna spin up, just like yesterday but theres a lot more shear and energy through the column today and tonight. Still ain't callin it, at least through Central IN yet. There's way too much kinetic volatility out there IMHO.

[mob1]

Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

ILX just slapping warning on every outflow dominate sup 

To be fair, one of them ended up being a confirmed tornado (as it law enforcement confirmed, not radar). 

In the beginning it was definitely outflow dominant though.

[Eskimo Joe]

Got an emergency management confirmed tornado on the Logan County, IL cell. Also an LSR for a funnel cloud captured on a sky cam.

[Jackstraw]

70/60 Tor Watch just issued for Central Indiana.

 

[pen_artist]

Likely strong tornado ongoing in IA heading toward southwest/west wisconsin 

[SchaumburgStormer]

None of the rotation on the Illinois cells looks like much, but Decatur is about to get rocked with a huge hail core 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, pen_artist said:

Likely strong tornado ongoing in IA heading toward southwest/west wisconsin 

Wasn't there someone in this thread earlier that was lamenting Wisconsin getting shafted again?

[CheeselandSkies]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wasn't there someone in this thread earlier that was lamenting Wisconsin getting shafted again?

That would be me.

[Eskimo Joe]

Local law enforcement reports the Audrain County storm in MO may be producing a funnel cloud near state road 15.

[Chinook]

possible tornado and 2.5" hail by Decatur IL

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

That would be me.

Watch that be the biggest tornado of the day.