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Severe threat 6/10-6/12

mjwise

By mjwise,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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sbnwx85

sbnwx85

Posted
Posted

Yesterday's line of storm was officially a derecho. Congrats to all who participated:

NWS - Northern Indiana

Good afternoon partners... Just as an FYI, we just received word from SPC that they confirmed yesterday's system was classified as a Derecho as it moved from Eastern Iowa through Lower Michigan. The wind swath had a track length over 400 miles, with a footprint just under 100,000 square miles. The strongest known gust was measured at 94 mph.

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Chicago Storm
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The forum will compress this picture to hell, but here was the view out of ORD as the line approached…

SchaumburgStormer
SchaumburgStormer

Ok gents, keep me up to date with what’s happening locally, and I’ll keep you guys up to date on what’s happening in St Thomas. 

luckyweather
luckyweather

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Harry Perry

Harry Perry

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MazooWeather said:

The rain is decaying pretty fast

I just came to say, I may be eating crow on the rain.

Currently on the lake and was watching some towering cumulus/stratus as depicted on radar to my SW. It appears to be hitting a brick wall. Haven’t even lost the sun over here yet. Just as quick as they were building they’ve dissipated to mid level haze.
 

We shall see. 

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outflow

outflow

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, frostfern said:

For you, yea.  I’m 100% out of the game now.  Reverse jinxing doesn’t work here.  I was never buying the fantasy CAM hype.

Your still going to get plenty of rain and thunder out of this.

 

 

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frostfern

frostfern

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

I just came to say, I may be eating crow on the rain.

Currently on the lake and was watching some towering cumulus/stratus as depicted on radar to my SW. It appears to be hitting a brick wall. Haven’t even lost the sun over here yet. Just as quick as they were building they’ve dissipated to mid level haze.
 

We shall see. 

Just thin translucent cirrus up here.  There is some downdraft CAPE on this side of the lake as opposed to Wisconsin, so there could still be an evening squall with the strong low level jet mixing down in spots.  It’s just the convection itself looks to be elevated and unorganized.

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nwohweather

nwohweather

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, pen_artist said:

Lots of chasers reporting VERY strong winds leading to quick recovery. Will see how much that affects Chicagoland area but do think we recover some compared to previous crapvection days

If I’m not mistaken the forecast models were showing ample LLJ strengthening this evening

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Harry Perry

Harry Perry

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Just thin translucent cirrus up here.  There is some downdraft CAPE on this side of the lake as opposed to Wisconsin, so there could still be an evening squall with the strong low level jet mixing down in spots.  It’s just the convection itself looks to be elevated and unorganized.

Do you work for GRR? 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

But its not declared a TORE? 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
507 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

ILC123-112245-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0087.000000T0000Z-260611T2245Z/
Marshall-
507 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
MARSHALL COUNTY...

At 507 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Washburn, or near Lacon, moving northeast at 40 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Washburn around 510 PM CDT.
  Toluca and Varna around 515 PM CDT.
  Wenona around 525 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Lake
Wildwood, Marshall County Airport, and La Rose.

This includes Interstate 39 between mile markers 31 and 40.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take
immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation.
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frostfern

frostfern

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Just curious, saw the GRR tag on your location and you bring lots of knowledge here. 
 

 

I just live here.  I do have a met degree and used to storm chase a bit.  I don’t pay for model data as much as others here, so I’m mostly in the same boat as you.  I just have good weather intuition, usually.  The mesoscale charts on the SPC page I find the most useful during severe weather. I know Michigan well because I grew up here.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

TORE 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
511 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LA ROSE...TOLUCA...WENONA...

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Eastern Marshall County in central Illinois...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 510 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was
  observed over Washburn, or 8 miles southeast of Lacon, moving
  northeast at 40 mph.

  TORNADO EMERGENCY for LA ROSE...TOLUCA...WENONA. This is a
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

  SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Toluca, Wenona, Varna, and La Rose.

This includes Interstate 39 between mile markers 29 and 40.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take
immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation.
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Harry Perry

Harry Perry

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I just live here.  I do have a met degree and used to storm chase a bit.  I don’t pay for model data as much as others here, so I’m mostly in the same boat as you.  I just have good weather intuition, usually.  The mesoscale charts on the SPC page I find the most useful during severe weather. I know Michigan well because I grew up here.

That’s cool.

 

You, @MazooWeather and I should all get together for a chase.. Or lunch. Something. Would be a good time. Always appreciate both of your .02. We don’t have many on the west side of the mitten any more. @WestMichigan too. @sbnwx85is close enough to count too lol. 
 

Also… 21z HRRR completely tapped out. Hopefully we get upscale growth and enough LLJ to vent something over here later. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1097.html 

Mesoscale Discussion 1097
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0513 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central into northeast Illinois

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 313...

   Valid 112213Z - 112315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 313 continues.

   SUMMARY...A strong tornado is likely ongoing across Woodford County,
   Illinois. The strong tornado threat from this storm is expected to
   continue for several more hours as it moves northeast.

   DISCUSSION...A debris ball has developed within a low-reflectivity
   hook west of Washburn, Illinois at 2205Z. This supercell is in a
   very favorable environment near the modifying outflow boundary
   across north-central Illinois. The KILX 21Z RAOB showed a very
   favorable environment with 0-500m SRH of 151 m2/s2. Recent VWP
   trends from ILX suggest this las likely increased within the past
   hour also. Given the continued northward movement of the outflow
   boundary and the discrete nature of this storm, expect an EF3+
   tornado threat to continue for several more hours this evening as it
   moves east/northeast.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40968956 41468879 41548810 41438778 41228773 40968813
               40858889 40828939 40968956 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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frostfern

frostfern

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, pen_artist said:

So clearly defined. Haven't seen a clear, detached debris ball like that in a while. Nothing much else impeding it either in the near term outside of the two small cells to its southeast

I wonder if the cell merger well help steer it right at Kankakee, yet again.  The track is so similar to the one in March.  It’s isolated enough to produce multiple times.  

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