Severe threat 6/10-6/12

[King James]

Nothing but sunny skies here in IKK since daybreak, thought it might be an overcast start to the day

[frostfern]

42 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Pretty “meh” feeling over this way. 
 

Lake Michigan and an overturned atmosphere  (downstream) along with debris clouds vs an unusually strong June system. Lots of bust potential here. If things hold out or redevelop over this side of the pond then could be a big evening but timing is getting later and later and models looking messier/disorganized. 
 

I feel pretty confident in the Chicago area for some heavy weather after 7-8PM. 12z HRRR looks ugly. 

Overnight crapvection shunted the real instability south as usual.  Maybe 1-94 but I’m hosed up here.  Michigan.

[homedis]

30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I believe we will see some changes regarding expectations for today.

Let the HRRR catch up to reality over the next few runs, and we’ll likely see a clearer and different picture painted.

If this initial MCS stays further south, you think the warm front may be closer to I-80 corridor or even further south for the next round? LOT AFD sort of alludes to this.

[Chicago Storm]

If this initial MCS stays further south, you think the warm front may be closer to I-80 corridor or even further south for the next round? LOT AFD sort of alludes to this.

Quite possibly.

The latest HRRR already has a better handle, and never gets the WF back to even I-80.

[King James]

IKK is the spot

[yoda]

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1086
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0953 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Iowa into northwest Illiniois and northeast
   Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 311...

   Valid 111453Z - 111630Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 311 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts remain likely across eastern Iowa,
   northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri. A tornado risk may
   develop from northeast Missouri into west-central Illinois.

   DISCUSSION...An MCS with a history of producing measured severe wind
   gusts continues to quickly move  across eastern IA. Two main surges
   are evident within this north-south line, with the southeast IA
   portion currently stronger than the section moving into northeast
   IA. Meanwhile, a trailing portion of the MCS extends southwestward
   into northern MO, where backbuilding is occurring.

   It appears the environment farther east across IL and southern WI
   will need to undergo significant destabilization for this existing
   MCS to remain severe into the afternoon. 12Z soundings from DVN and
   ILX show a stabilized air mass from the overnight MCS, with GPS PWAT
   sensors indicating a deeper moisture gradient across central IL.
   However, visible satellite shows strong heating occurring ahead of
   the MCS, and modest southwest winds will allow for moisture to
   gradually return northward across IL and vicinity.

   Some tornado risk exists as well, especially along the
   southern/southeastern fringe of the MCS. Here, 0-1 km SRH will
   remain strongest, and the environment should become more favorable
   later in the day as the air mass become more volatile.

   ..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

[hawkeye_wx]

No severe here, but we did get torrential rain.  I got a very quick 1.25".  At its peak it was close to 4"/hr, the heaviest rain I've seen in a while.

[Tim from Springfield, IL]

39 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1086
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0953 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Iowa into northwest Illiniois and northeast
   Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 311...

   Valid 111453Z - 111630Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 311 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts remain likely across eastern Iowa,
   northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri. A tornado risk may
   develop from northeast Missouri into west-central Illinois.

   DISCUSSION...An MCS with a history of producing measured severe wind
   gusts continues to quickly move  across eastern IA. Two main surges
   are evident within this north-south line, with the southeast IA
   portion currently stronger than the section moving into northeast
   IA. Meanwhile, a trailing portion of the MCS extends southwestward
   into northern MO, where backbuilding is occurring.

   It appears the environment farther east across IL and southern WI
   will need to undergo significant destabilization for this existing
   MCS to remain severe into the afternoon. 12Z soundings from DVN and
   ILX show a stabilized air mass from the overnight MCS, with GPS PWAT
   sensors indicating a deeper moisture gradient across central IL.
   However, visible satellite shows strong heating occurring ahead of
   the MCS, and modest southwest winds will allow for moisture to
   gradually return northward across IL and vicinity.

   Some tornado risk exists as well, especially along the
   southern/southeastern fringe of the MCS. Here, 0-1 km SRH will
   remain strongest, and the environment should become more favorable
   later in the day as the air mass become more volatile.

   ..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

ILX might as well locally extend Tornado Watch 311 to everything west of I-55.  Including Bloomington, Jacksonville and yes Springfield--in addition to the rest of the Peoria metro.

[Sciascia]

The currently running 15z HRRR is showing much less intensity for the IL/WI border area regarding the first round of storms at Noon/1pm. Lots of yellow, but no reds & purples.

[Harry Perry]

GRR AFD:
The question is does the convection survive all morning and push
across Lake Michigan during the mid afternoon hours. We will follow
the HREF for guidance on this. The HREF weakens the initial
convection as it moves towards or out over Lake Michigan this
afternoon. This will allow the main surge to move in this evening
out ahead of the main upper wave. If the first round of
convection survives and spreads into Lower Michigan this afternoon
that could modulate our event for the evening. We do not think
that is going to happen.

 

 

[Chicago Storm]

There's not a single 12z CAM that has a handle on evolution of the initial MCS.

[King James]

Moderate nudged south some?

Riding the Bloomington/Pontiac/Kankakee corridor

[ILSNOW]

Chicago NWS Izzi

CAM guidance remains very aggressive with a strongly unstable and
rather large warm/unstable sector ahead of the cold front, though
most CAMs do not seem to be handling the current size/magnitude
of the MCS and associated cold pool well. Recent observational
trends raise significant questions about how realistic the CAM
depictions are. Certainly, given the magnitude of the forcing, we
feel that at least some moderate destabilization will occur and
likely support a strongly forced QLCS developing along the cold
front this afternoon and spreading into northern IL this evening.
Magnitude of the recovery and subsequent destabilization across
northern IL is somewhat unclear ahead of this QLCS, but given the
strong forcing and unseasonably strong deep and low level shear,
there could a damaging wind and QLCS tornado threat even with
somewhat modest instability. Should recovery and instability be
more significant, like many CAMS show, then potential would
increase for a derecho/QLCS tornado threat this evening. We will
be closely monitoring observational trends this afternoon.

[homedis]

Looking to be more of a flash flood event for Chicago versus severe at this point. Not feeling confident for sig severe later.

[cyclone77]

First round quickly converted over to anvil rain on approach.

Let's see what round 2 does.

[Powerball]

What a messy setup.

Funny how the setup yesterday was quietly a lot cleaner, despite shear/dynamics being not as impressive...

[frostfern]

So that elevated blob over Iowa now is what was supposed to be developing into a line of supercells and eventual deracho this evening on yesterdays fantasy CAMs?

The lead MCV does seem to be slowing down and running out of steam.  Temperatures are decent on this side of the lake.  Dewpoints are just meh compared to yeasterday though.

I just want some good beneficial rain.  Hope I don’t get screwed out of that somehow.

[yoda]

New Tornado Watches coming soon per MCD 

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1089
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0108 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

   Areas affected...northeast Missouri...southern into eastern
   Iowa...far western Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 311...

   Valid 111808Z - 112045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The environment is becoming more favorable for severe
   storms with potential for tornadoes, and new/updated tornado watches
   are likely over parts of Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite and surface observations indicate a
   modifying/retreating outflow boundary into south-central IA where
   winds are now out of the south and with low 70s F dewpoints.
   Meanwhile, the synoptic cold front continues to push rapidly east,
   along with the shortwave trough. This front is located from central
   IA into northwest MO as of 18Z with gusty southwest winds ahead of
   it. GPS PWAT is over 1.80" now into southern IA. Low-level shear is
   quite favorable for rotating storms near the retreating outflow,
   with 0-1 SRH over 200 m2/s2. 

   Over the next few hours, storms are likely to develop near the cold
   front, and perhaps within the warm advection zone near the modifying
   outflow boundary. Supercells are expected initially with deep-layer
   shear near 55 kt and ample low-level SRH to support rightward cell
   propagation relative to the cold front orientation. A few strong
   tornadoes will be possible. Damaging winds also are likely as
   high-PWAT air mass supports ample downdraft material with any larger
   storm clusters or linear modes near the cold front.

   ..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40359360 40869338 41379301 41469282 41699196 41769157
               41699111 41429084 41019079 40589079 40169089 39919133
               39899157 39739279 39759326 40119358 40359360 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

[Harry Perry]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

What a messy setup.

Funny how the setup yesterday was quietly a lot cleaner, despite shear/dynamics being not as impressive...

 

41 minutes ago, frostfern said:

So that elevated blob over Iowa now is what was supposed to be developing into a line of supercells and eventual deracho this evening on yesterdays fantasy CAMs?

The lead MCV does seem to be slowing down and running out of steam.  Temperatures are decent on this side of the lake.  Dewpoints are just meh compared to yeasterday though.

I just want some good beneficial rain.  Hope I don’t get screwed out of that somehow.

I was just thinking this as well. Both points. 
 

What got me is the amount of hype locally. Then last night most of the city lost power… not due to the “storms” but ironically a transformer failure at the main city substation at the same time the wind driven sprinkles and shelf cloud moved in. Now everyone here is expecting the sky to fall this evening “because how bad it was last night and it’s supposed to be worse tonight” lol. I’ve seen countless posts on Facebook, YouTube.. etc of it and it’s pretty ridiculous. 

[Chicago Storm]

Rapid recovery occurring across the southern half of the DVN CWA.

[King James]

Relax boys, it’s going to be fun. Round 2 will deliver

[yoda]

 

[yoda]

80/60 tor probs 

 

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 313
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   155 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern and Eastern Iowa
     Northern and Central Illinois
     Northwest Indiana
     Northern Missouri
     Southern Wisconsin
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
     900 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A complex scenario remains apparent this afternoon across
   the Midwest. Any supercells which can become surface based will pose
   a threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail given a
   rather favorable environment. The threat for widespread
   severe/damaging winds will increase through the afternoon/evening as
   thunderstorms likely grow upscale into an intense bowing cluster.
   Peak gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Kirksville
   MO to 80 miles east northeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado
   watch number 311. Watch number 311 will not be in effect after
   155 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 312...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
   storm motion vector 26035.

   ...Gleason

[pen_artist]

Lots of chasers reporting VERY strong winds leading to quick recovery. Will see how much that affects Chicagoland area but do think we recover some compared to previous crapvection days

[Tim from Springfield, IL]

20 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

Good call on including Springfield in the watch even though none of Sangamon County falls within the watch box.  (Same with Morgan and Scott counties as well).  Especially after what happened on the north side of the city and in eastern Sangamon County last night.  It was probably going to eventually get locally extended here too so might as well get it out of the way.

But interesting how the rest of the counties where I-72 goes through--all containing big population centers--were omitted for now barring a later local extension--even though the south edges of the watch box were closer to those counties than Sangamon?  (Macon--Decatur; Piatt--Monticello; and Champaign--C/U--plus although 72 ends at C/U you have Danville and Vermilion county excluded from the watch at this time.  Unless SPC in cooperation with ILX is seeing something that I'm not?

[Chicago Storm]

13 minutes ago, Tim from Springfield, IL said:

Good call on including Springfield in the watch even though none of Sangamon County falls within the watch box.  (Same with Morgan and Scott counties as well). 

sangamon county is in the watch. springfield can't be in the watch if sangamon county isn't.