King James Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Nothing but sunny skies here in IKK since daybreak, thought it might be an overcast start to the day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 42 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Pretty “meh” feeling over this way. Lake Michigan and an overturned atmosphere (downstream) along with debris clouds vs an unusually strong June system. Lots of bust potential here. If things hold out or redevelop over this side of the pond then could be a big evening but timing is getting later and later and models looking messier/disorganized. I feel pretty confident in the Chicago area for some heavy weather after 7-8PM. 12z HRRR looks ugly. Overnight crapvection shunted the real instability south as usual. Maybe 1-94 but I’m hosed up here. Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I believe we will see some changes regarding expectations for today. Let the HRRR catch up to reality over the next few runs, and we’ll likely see a clearer and different picture painted. If this initial MCS stays further south, you think the warm front may be closer to I-80 corridor or even further south for the next round? LOT AFD sort of alludes to this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago If this initial MCS stays further south, you think the warm front may be closer to I-80 corridor or even further south for the next round? LOT AFD sort of alludes to this.Quite possibly.The latest HRRR already has a better handle, and never gets the WF back to even I-80. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago IKK is the spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Mesoscale Discussion 1086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...eastern Iowa into northwest Illiniois and northeast Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 311... Valid 111453Z - 111630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 311 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts remain likely across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri. A tornado risk may develop from northeast Missouri into west-central Illinois. DISCUSSION...An MCS with a history of producing measured severe wind gusts continues to quickly move across eastern IA. Two main surges are evident within this north-south line, with the southeast IA portion currently stronger than the section moving into northeast IA. Meanwhile, a trailing portion of the MCS extends southwestward into northern MO, where backbuilding is occurring. It appears the environment farther east across IL and southern WI will need to undergo significant destabilization for this existing MCS to remain severe into the afternoon. 12Z soundings from DVN and ILX show a stabilized air mass from the overnight MCS, with GPS PWAT sensors indicating a deeper moisture gradient across central IL. However, visible satellite shows strong heating occurring ahead of the MCS, and modest southwest winds will allow for moisture to gradually return northward across IL and vicinity. Some tornado risk exists as well, especially along the southern/southeastern fringe of the MCS. Here, 0-1 km SRH will remain strongest, and the environment should become more favorable later in the day as the air mass become more volatile. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago No severe here, but we did get torrential rain. I got a very quick 1.25". At its peak it was close to 4"/hr, the heaviest rain I've seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield, IL Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 39 minutes ago, yoda said: Mesoscale Discussion 1086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...eastern Iowa into northwest Illiniois and northeast Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 311... Valid 111453Z - 111630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 311 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts remain likely across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri. A tornado risk may develop from northeast Missouri into west-central Illinois. DISCUSSION...An MCS with a history of producing measured severe wind gusts continues to quickly move across eastern IA. Two main surges are evident within this north-south line, with the southeast IA portion currently stronger than the section moving into northeast IA. Meanwhile, a trailing portion of the MCS extends southwestward into northern MO, where backbuilding is occurring. It appears the environment farther east across IL and southern WI will need to undergo significant destabilization for this existing MCS to remain severe into the afternoon. 12Z soundings from DVN and ILX show a stabilized air mass from the overnight MCS, with GPS PWAT sensors indicating a deeper moisture gradient across central IL. However, visible satellite shows strong heating occurring ahead of the MCS, and modest southwest winds will allow for moisture to gradually return northward across IL and vicinity. Some tornado risk exists as well, especially along the southern/southeastern fringe of the MCS. Here, 0-1 km SRH will remain strongest, and the environment should become more favorable later in the day as the air mass become more volatile. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... ILX might as well locally extend Tornado Watch 311 to everything west of I-55. Including Bloomington, Jacksonville and yes Springfield--in addition to the rest of the Peoria metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The currently running 15z HRRR is showing much less intensity for the IL/WI border area regarding the first round of storms at Noon/1pm. Lots of yellow, but no reds & purples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GRR AFD: The question is does the convection survive all morning and push across Lake Michigan during the mid afternoon hours. We will follow the HREF for guidance on this. The HREF weakens the initial convection as it moves towards or out over Lake Michigan this afternoon. This will allow the main surge to move in this evening out ahead of the main upper wave. If the first round of convection survives and spreads into Lower Michigan this afternoon that could modulate our event for the evening. We do not think that is going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago There's not a single 12z CAM that has a handle on evolution of the initial MCS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Moderate nudged south some? Riding the Bloomington/Pontiac/Kankakee corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Chicago NWS Izzi CAM guidance remains very aggressive with a strongly unstable and rather large warm/unstable sector ahead of the cold front, though most CAMs do not seem to be handling the current size/magnitude of the MCS and associated cold pool well. Recent observational trends raise significant questions about how realistic the CAM depictions are. Certainly, given the magnitude of the forcing, we feel that at least some moderate destabilization will occur and likely support a strongly forced QLCS developing along the cold front this afternoon and spreading into northern IL this evening. Magnitude of the recovery and subsequent destabilization across northern IL is somewhat unclear ahead of this QLCS, but given the strong forcing and unseasonably strong deep and low level shear, there could a damaging wind and QLCS tornado threat even with somewhat modest instability. Should recovery and instability be more significant, like many CAMS show, then potential would increase for a derecho/QLCS tornado threat this evening. We will be closely monitoring observational trends this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looking to be more of a flash flood event for Chicago versus severe at this point. Not feeling confident for sig severe later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago First round quickly converted over to anvil rain on approach. Let's see what round 2 does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago What a messy setup. Funny how the setup yesterday was quietly a lot cleaner, despite shear/dynamics being not as impressive... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted 40 minutes ago Share Posted 40 minutes ago So that elevated blob over Iowa now is what was supposed to be developing into a line of supercells and eventual deracho this evening on yesterdays fantasy CAMs? The lead MCV does seem to be slowing down and running out of steam. Temperatures are decent on this side of the lake. Dewpoints are just meh compared to yeasterday though. I just want some good beneficial rain. Hope I don’t get screwed out of that somehow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago New Tornado Watches coming soon per MCD Mesoscale Discussion 1089 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...northeast Missouri...southern into eastern Iowa...far western Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 311... Valid 111808Z - 112045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The environment is becoming more favorable for severe storms with potential for tornadoes, and new/updated tornado watches are likely over parts of Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite and surface observations indicate a modifying/retreating outflow boundary into south-central IA where winds are now out of the south and with low 70s F dewpoints. Meanwhile, the synoptic cold front continues to push rapidly east, along with the shortwave trough. This front is located from central IA into northwest MO as of 18Z with gusty southwest winds ahead of it. GPS PWAT is over 1.80" now into southern IA. Low-level shear is quite favorable for rotating storms near the retreating outflow, with 0-1 SRH over 200 m2/s2. Over the next few hours, storms are likely to develop near the cold front, and perhaps within the warm advection zone near the modifying outflow boundary. Supercells are expected initially with deep-layer shear near 55 kt and ample low-level SRH to support rightward cell propagation relative to the cold front orientation. A few strong tornadoes will be possible. Damaging winds also are likely as high-PWAT air mass supports ample downdraft material with any larger storm clusters or linear modes near the cold front. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40359360 40869338 41379301 41469282 41699196 41769157 41699111 41429084 41019079 40589079 40169089 39919133 39899157 39739279 39759326 40119358 40359360 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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