Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Well that does seem like the 2 options. Probably no middle ground, so weird that he sorta averaged them together lol

Yea that was my thought also. Sometimes an average when there are two distinct sub sets within the analogs is the least likely outcome!  I get it that some feel pressured to make a definitive forecast but the truth is a good forecast would be to say “we have an elevated risk of a historic snowstorm this winter, it’s going to be wet, but it might end up too warm and in that case a snowless winter and it’s about 50/50 odds”. If people aren’t smart enough to digest some nuance and ambiguity oh well. Fake certainty does no one any good. 

[Jersey Andrew]

59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Well that does seem like the 2 options. Probably no middle ground, so weird that he sorta averaged them together lol

Can you explain why a 2009-2010 type winter is on the table or unlikely again?

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Can you explain why a 2009-2010 type winter is on the table or unlikely again?

I think it’s unlikely we’ll have that long of a period with below normal temps that allowed us to have that incredible run. I think a 2015-16 scenario would be on the table, but also 97-98. Very boom or bust winter seems likely. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

This year’s contest is going to have an epic spread.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

This year’s contest is going to have an epic spread.

I mean you can say 1.2" or 35" and have equal chances of being right or wrong, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think it’s unlikely we’ll have that long of a period with below normal temps that allowed us to have that incredible run. I think a 2015-16 scenario would be on the table, but also 97-98. Very boom or bust winter seems likely. 

Super ninos in order from 65-66: Boom, bust, boom, bust, boom....I'm a bit concered we're due for bust again based on that random pattern 

[Steve25]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Super ninos in order from 65-66: Boom, bust, boom, bust, boom....I'm a bit concered we're due for bust again based on that random pattern 

The WDI clears this. 

Going on 11 years without even a pure 6-8+ inch snowfall. I don’t think it gets talked about enough how dreadful of a stretch that is. I feel like it gets talked about that we haven’t had an HECS or MECS in a decade, but honestly a good portion of the region hasn’t even had a SECS in that time

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

The WDI clears this. 

Going on 11 years without even a pure 6-8+ inch snowfall. I don’t think it gets talked about enough how dreadful of a stretch that is. I feel like it gets talked about that we haven’t had an HECS or MECS in a decade, but honestly a good portion of the region hasn’t even had a SECS in that time

WDI hasn't worked for awhile, man...used to be 3-4 years for a foot, 6-7 years for 2 feet...this is the longest stretch without a SECS in my brief lifetime. But not getting any out of two niños (23-24 & the upcoming one) would be an unusual level of futility, though. Let's hope this one delivers.