Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Ji]

Let’s just use pure math for now to set expectations.  
 
If we use Ninos that reached > +1.5 during winter 5/9 or 56% had a HECS. 
 
If we use years that reached > +2 during winter 2/3 or 66% had a HECS. 
 
Clearly we have a significantly elevated probability of a HECS this winter. 
 
But yes for the DEBs the caution is the years in that analog set that didn’t have an HECS were really really really awful winters for the most part. 

Might be a one snowstorm winter lol. Better make it good!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s just use pure math for now to set expectations.  
 

If we use Ninos that reached > +1.5 during winter 5/9 or 56% had a HECS. 
 

If we use years that reached > +2 during winter 2/3 or 66% had a HECS. 
 

Clearly we have a significantly elevated probability of a HECS this winter. 
 

But yes for the DEBs the caution is the years in that analog set that didn’t have an HECS were really really really awful winters for the most part. 

PDO is still around -3. 23-24 and 72-73 are the only analogs for both unless it starts rising fast. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 8/1/2026 at 5:08 PM, CAPE said:

It looks pretty damn close to current reality at initialization, and then evolves to more of basin wide event as winter progresses. Who's to say it doesn't have the right idea?

And yes, Chuck-

-PNA

-PNA may seem out of context in an El Nino thread, but I'm just describing what's happening now - this is the highest El Nino on record for the date, and right now it's not acting like previous Nino's. Will that change for the Winter? perhaps, but I wouldn't expect a monster -150dm N. pacific low in the DJFM mean. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Near record low arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept. Since 2012, it has flipped for the Winter almost every time. 

Would you guys take a repeat of 24-25 and 25-26 with a Super Nino STJ? I would. Should be interesting. 

[frd]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Near record low arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept. Since 2012, it has flipped for the Winter almost every time. 

Would you guys take a repeat of 24-25 and 25-26 with a Super Nino STJ? I would. Should be interesting. 

What do you make of this?  Notice a tight range for multiple months. Also of note is a deep - NAO now and a rapidly climbing PNA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

PDO is still around -3. 23-24 and 72-73 are the only analogs for both unless it starts rising fast. 

This is troubling but a sample size of 2 is hard to draw strong conclusions 

[Eskimo Joe]

Interesting temp/snowfall website tool. If you're a snow lover, the odds are not in your favor in these parts for big ENSO events:

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Interesting temp/snowfall website tool. If you're a snow lover, the odds are not in your favor in these parts for big ENSO events:

 

 

Interesting how strong El Niño has the highest snowfall on average, but it’s the moderate El Niño which is the coldest on average. The snow plot for super El Niño events is what we all know which is we gotta get hit or we get nothing. The most concrete thing it showed was that this winter will be warm as the super El Niño is by far the highest temp anomaly. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Interesting how strong El Niño has the highest snowfall on average, but it’s the moderate El Niño which is the coldest on average. The snow plot for super El Niño events is what we all know which is we gotta get hit or we get nothing. The most concrete thing it showed was that this winter will be warm as the super El Niño is by far the highest temp anomaly. 

I truly hope this El Nino comes in weaker, but that seems unlikely.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, frd said:

What do you make of this?  Notice a tight range for multiple months. Also of note is a deep - NAO now and a rapidly climbing PNA

I've just been looking at 500mb daily maps and we've had 4 good low peaks in the arctic this Summer. I think the actual AO index is not as positive as the -H5. 

PNA is recovering finally after a negative start to August. Let's see if it continues! 

[Weather Will]

WB CFS 30 Days of Run average Dec. thru March temp. & precip. Anomalies...hope this verifies. Added 500MB anomalies for Dec-Feb. and Jan. Thru March

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^I wish. We're in a nasty 7-year trend in March

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This is troubling but a sample size of 2 is hard to draw strong conclusions 

Expand it to all PDO analogs.. +PDO is perferred

Although we had record low -PDO in the Summer/Fall the last 2 years, and ended up having a cold Winter both times. 

[bncho]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Expand it to all PDO analogs.. +PDO is perferred

Although we had record low -PDO in the Summer/Fall the last 2 years, and ended up having a cold Winter both times. 

Thoughts on a PDO flip to positive with the Super Nino?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, bncho said:

Thoughts on a PDO flip to positive with the Super Nino?

You would expect it, but the decadal -PDO is near a peak right now.. it's holding surprisingly strong. Nino 3.4 is +2.1c right now and the previous ONI record for JJA is +1.6c, and JAS +1.9c. So this is the Strongest El Nino on record at the moment.. yet we are starting off Aug with the 7th month of -PNA values in a row. That's what's keeping the PDO so low. In the cold season the North Pacific High starts reacting to ENSO more, so there is a good chance it will start trending more positive then, say like October, but the pattern right now otherwise is really strong in the N. Pacific. I think it's tied to warm season +AO, and this year is another -H5 over the Arctic.. which we've had so much of since 2017. Amazing that the Arctic ice melt record from 2012 has now held for 14 consecutive years in exponential global warming.