Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Jebman]

On 7/7/2026 at 6:49 PM, frd said:

 

We will be tired of the blizzards.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I might have to stop by for a few days and watch all that snow pile up.

[Weather Will]

Early winter analog ideas from WB's D'Aleo:  surprised by both maps actually...temps are cold and precip. is just normal.

[CAPE]

Latest CFS runs still going Giga for late winter. Typically when we have the highest probability of a major east coast winter storm during a Nino.

[frd]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Early winter analog ideas from WB's D'Aleo:  surprised by both maps actually...temps are cold and precip. is just normal.

The East based Nino folks are not going to agree. 

[GaWx]

CFSv2 latest 10 day mean of JFM 2m anomalies is beautiful fwiw:

 

Same for precip:

 Whereas this looks great and I’d love for it to verify closely, it’s important to keep in mind the following for the NE US regarding 15 years of mid-July CFSv2 JFM prog verifications (2012-26):

-Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12

-Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14

-Close 5 yrs/33%: ‘25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13

 Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) were too cold…so not a strong cold bias and thus there’s still a reasonable level of hope that it could verify well.

——————————
 The cold bias in the SE is even stronger:

-Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12

-Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14

-Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13

—————————

 Interestingly, this cold JFM 2027 CFSv2 forecast isn’t a whole lot colder than the following one also made in mid-July for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold):

 This is what verified: so, CFSv2 was close in NE but too cold in the S 1/2 of US:

[Benjamn3]

13 hours ago, CAPE said:

Latest CFS runs still going Giga for late winter. Typically when we have the highest probability of a major east coast winter storm during a Nino.

Us in S.W V.A looking at that like 

 

[Terpeast]

14 hours ago, CAPE said:

Latest CFS runs still going Giga for late winter. Typically when we have the highest probability of a major east coast winter storm during a Nino.

Not to toss a wet blanket on this - I love this look, and while it points to a relatively stormy winter for is - I think the ridges will verify stronger and troughs weaker.

The more important interpretation of this map is the placement of the troughs and ridges. The trough placement for us is perfect (TN), western ridge axis over Idaho. The E Canada ridge may verify in the same place, but would be more extreme - double digit warm anomalies with blocking that may give us some interesting storm tracks. 

Please, please just have it cold enough for us. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not to toss a wet blanket on this - I love this look, and while it points to a relatively stormy winter for is - I think the ridges will verify stronger and troughs weaker.

The more important interpretation of this map is the placement of the troughs and ridges. The trough placement for us is perfect (TN), western ridge axis over Idaho. The E Canada ridge may verify in the same place, but would be more extreme - double digit warm anomalies with blocking that may give us some interesting storm tracks. 

Please, please just have it cold enough for us. 

The CanSIPS advertised h5 pattern for latter part of winter certainly implies cold enough at times.

Love the look out west with the Aleutian low placement and the amped EPO ridge. Has the TPV in a favorable spot and suggests a -NAO.

[yoda]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not to toss a wet blanket on this - I love this look, and while it points to a relatively stormy winter for is - I think the ridges will verify stronger and troughs weaker.

The more important interpretation of this map is the placement of the troughs and ridges. The trough placement for us is perfect (TN), western ridge axis over Idaho. The E Canada ridge may verify in the same place, but would be more extreme - double digit warm anomalies with blocking that may give us some interesting storm tracks. 

Please, please just have it cold enough for us. 

I agree.  I think we will be also having a lot more "mixed" or snow to rain events east of the i81 corridor/mountain regions this winter.  I'd like to think if we can time it right with the cold air - as I believe we will see numerous moisture laden SLPs - we could luck our way into a decent winter.

[Benjamn3]

[Eskimo Joe]

On 7/17/2026 at 9:40 AM, Terpeast said:

Not to toss a wet blanket on this - I love this look, and while it points to a relatively stormy winter for is - I think the ridges will verify stronger and troughs weaker.

The more important interpretation of this map is the placement of the troughs and ridges. The trough placement for us is perfect (TN), western ridge axis over Idaho. The E Canada ridge may verify in the same place, but would be more extreme - double digit warm anomalies with blocking that may give us some interesting storm tracks. 

Please, please just have it cold enough for us. 

Hopefully Canada isn't torched by Pacific puke for most of the winter.

[MN Transplant]

30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hopefully Canada isn't torched by Pacific puke for most of the winter.

2009-2010 was the warmest Canadian winter on record (to that point).

[dailylurker]

Just checking in. A month ago it looked like a possible west based Nino. Now east base? I thought 2009-10 was a east base? 

[WxUSAF]

22 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Just checking in. A month ago it looked like a possible west based Nino. Now east base? I thought 2009-10 was an east base? 

09-10 was modiki (west based). Best we can hope for this year is probably basin wide.