Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

COC!!

It's flawless imho today.   

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully cold, rainy, and foggy for the 4th. I don’t want any 250th anni fireworks BS going on around me.

Shut’em down 

They're loaning me to BOX for that week. Time to do some damage.

 

[OceanStWx]

We sweated that one, but in the end all the damage was parallel to slightly divergent and just too wide a path for a tornado. You're not really likely to pull a half mile wide QLCS tornado around these parts.

https://x.com/NWSGray/status/2069904757599134055

[ineedsnow]

terrible 

[ineedsnow]

https://x.com/FEscrutinio/status/2069927854846988376/video/1

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

We sweated that one, but in the end all the damage was parallel to slightly divergent and just too wide a path for a tornado. You're not really likely to pull a half mile wide QLCS tornado around these parts.

https://x.com/NWSGray/status/2069904757599134055

That town every two years has something. 

[Dan76]

56 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

https://x.com/FEscrutinio/status/2069927854846988376/video/1

Comments under say its fake?

[ineedsnow]

27 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Comments under say its fake?

heres another one from the area.. that other one is questionable

https://x.com/TheOfficialMrA1/status/2069938311238459808/video/1

[weathafella]

Finally getting a whole new central AC for the house just in time.  Starts tomorrow and done hopefully by the end of Friday.  Just in the nick of time for next weeks heater.

[kdxken]

Oh noes! The dreaded double heat domes. 

 

[BrianW]

Looks like a nice hot and dewy stretch heading into the 4th. 

 

 

[dendrite]

One way to get big heat up here is over the top. The gfs op has a couple of good plumes advecting in from James Bay.

The euro still has some flies in the ointment trying to limit the heat potential.

Either way the ridge retros to the west after the 4th on most guidance.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, BrianW said:

Looks like a nice hot and dewy stretch heading into the 4th. 

 

 

 

Tuesday (with a high of 88) is described as "nice" while Thursday (with a high of 86) is described as hot (granted it says humid) but still lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

One way to get big heat up here is over the top. The gfs op has a couple of good plumes advecting in from James Bay.

The euro still has some flies in the ointment trying to limit the heat potential.

Either way the ridge retros to the west after the 4th on most guidance.

The GFS actually hangs the warm front right over us for 2 and half days from what I see.  A time in which IL/IN/OH/MI enjoy 582 to 584 dm hydrostats containing 25+C at 850 mb plasma layer, over 102 F surface blister.  It's related to that stuff we talked about yesterday ..it's stacking the ridge heights uber tall, but keeping the wave lengths pretty short - does seem a little suss but who knows. 

I see what you are saying but the GFS is trying really hard to keep the wave ( holistically...) lengths so curved and steep that it collapses the ridge's giz pulses more S than SE. E NY/PA and NE ends up more just humid and thundery and probably MCS traffic cops.   It's a form of summer weather for sure... But just my take looking at the 00 and 06z blended GFS operational runs.

Having said that... what's interesting is that the GEFs/GEPs means are actually cleaner looking than the operational versions of either cluster.   That in and of itself is likely just smoothing from the member tussle/averaging.. .but, it shows also that this is precarious, because those smoother inclinations actually would send an over top heat crest in a couple of 18 hour separated maxes... (too detailed to make that call, but I have long years of experience at this point).   Interesting.  I'd say the ens means look more more "successful" in the over top method.  

Of course, still D7...   The blend of all looks high confidence for the southern GL region to suffer a short duration very intense heat wave.  No comment on historical this-that comparisons for now.  Regarding that,  those 2-m Ts do not look correct given the holistic, synoptic- parametric constituency that is objectively modeled.   Not unusual though - not sure why 2-m products really exist. It is clear they either stop the adiabats at something higher than the surface sigmas (thus can't be 2 meter anything...) or just suck too bad to even look at them.  

So .. short duration?  I only say that because even though the ensemble spatial synoptic means can't seem to wait to toggle the entire structure dubiously quickly back W...like within 2 days flipping the PNAP on it's ass, I'd caution, the numeral teleconnector ( math provided numbers) are having difficulty getting that nearer in time.  They are collapsing the wave function ... think can kicking, which means it could be rushed.

[dendrite]

Yeah I hear ya. My gut says to lean warmer this time of year at this range…at least until there’s more consistency of Atlantic taint toward d5. 6z gfs had some pretty hot days in there…granted we’re getting past 180hr and it may be doing some of that overmixing again. 98/49 probably verifies as 93/65.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'd actually say 50/50 shot that the westward sudden retrograde idea around the 4th to 7th of July is too aggressive.  As I said to Brain, the purer derived numerical teleconnectors, from all sources, are graphically not really propagating the rising PNA curve closer in time.  Repositioning them toward the right on the graphs means any retrograde is been pushed back.  I think what is more telling about that isn't a pattern flip, it's more a pattern uncertainty.  It's like the modeling tech et al loses the linear more detectable physical forcing in the nearer terms, then that immediately exposes the vestigial perennial non-linearity of the N/A continent favoring higher heights over the Rockies. 

[Typhoon Tip]

haha... Brain... no, Brian

[Typhoon Tip]

has anyone else been receiving occasional report backs with Gate way lag/failures.   It's saying it is at this end, btw.  American's problem if the report is to be believed.  

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

has anyone else been receiving occasional report backs with Gate way lag/failures.   It's saying it is at this end, btw.  American's problem if the report is to be believed.  

I’ve had a few sites giving me issues…but Wow handles the server stuff. Not sure what the cause is yet.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Good to see some 90s showing up for some of the area.   Hoping to get in on some of that.  
 

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I hear ya. My gut says to lean warmer this time of year at this range…at least until there’s more consistency of Atlantic taint toward d5. 6z gfs had some pretty hot days in there…granted we’re getting past 180hr and it may be doing some of that overmixing again. 98/49 probably verifies as 93/65.

Is it even possible to mix to 700mb around these parts? 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

One way to get big heat up here is over the top. The gfs op has a couple of good plumes advecting in from James Bay.

The euro still has some flies in the ointment trying to limit the heat potential.

Either way the ridge retros to the west after the 4th on most guidance.

I wonder if that's why the heat of June and August last year were different.  Both June 24 and August 12 hit 92 in our transpirationally-modified cabin in the woods, only one degree from our hottest.  The June heat came with dews over 70 (I was miserable, having had knee replacement surgery the day before) while August 12 was the middle day of only our 2nd heat wave in 28 summers here and had dews mid-60s. 
Those peaks were also different from some normally hotter MA sites.  On June 24 NYC/PHL/BWI were 98 to 101 and ACY reached 102.  August 12 was only 90-91 at the big cities and a mere 86 on the boardwalk (actually the AP) at ACY.

[weatherwiz]

Should see a few strong storms tomorrow, particularly north of the Pike. Dries out quite a bit aloft which tapers down potential aerial coverage. Too bad because shear is pretty solid for late June

[Brewbeer]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I’ve had a few sites giving me issues…but Wow handles the server stuff. Not sure what the cause is yet.

Wow spill his tea on the server ?

[Typhoon Tip]

New NAM bringing overrunning big rain potential suddenly for Saturday.   We'll see what the other soon -arriving guidance updates show.

could just be a typical NAM too far N-W at 60 hours deal.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

New NAM bringing overrunning big rain potential suddenly for Saturday.   We'll see what the other soon -arriving guidance updates show.

could just be a typical NAM too far N-W at 60 hours deal.

Stalls that cold front just to our south tomorrow evening and then either slowly lifts it back north as a warm front or just remains a stationary front with a wave developing along it. GFS has it too. 

Wonder if alot of this depends on MCS developing and evolution tomorrow within the midwest

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Stalls that cold front just to our south tomorrow evening and then either slowly lifts it back north as a warm front or just remains a stationary front with a wave developing along it. GFS has it too. 

Wonder if alot of this depends on MCS developing and evolution tomorrow within the midwest

watch us get a 5-7" un-forecasted rain bomb out of nowhere by training 55 dbz rain cores in along a linear band of 40

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

watch us get a 5-7" un-forecasted rain bomb out of nowhere by training 55 dbz rain cores in along a linear band of 40

Something to watch for sure. This setup, if verified, could argue for some flooding potential across southern CT. southern CT right on the edge of the stronger llvl jet and more robust elevated CAPE with the boundary just south. Perfect scenario for training 

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Something to watch for sure. This setup, if verified, could argue for some flooding potential across southern CT. southern CT right on the edge of the stronger llvl jet and more robust elevated CAPE with the boundary just south. Perfect scenario for training 

I have an irrational fascination with floods.  Not sure why...as it's morally ambiguous to gawk.  But they're an amazingly powerful force - too much so perhaps to resist. A truly, truly awesome specter to behold, when even a small brook swells to a 1:500 year return rate raging Amazonian rival...  to the point where a Town Hall's annexed church's steeple has a cat clinging to it for life.   When a orbital survey of the land clearly suggests it was always some sort of alluvial plain - like the Mississippi Valley, 1993 say...  Gee, let's construct a civility there!  weee

When the Louisiana Purchase took place ... the parting gift to the purchasers ( in this case, the U.S. Gubberment ... why - ) was a bit of advice by the retreating French:  "Attempt no city there".  

But "Americaaa   FUCK YEAH!" thought otherwise I suppose.

[Typhoon Tip]

55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Something to watch for sure. This setup, if verified, could argue for some flooding potential across southern CT. southern CT right on the edge of the stronger llvl jet and more robust elevated CAPE with the boundary just south. Perfect scenario for training 

heh 12z GFS is no where near the NAM's idea.   Having seen that...I gotta lean on the NAM being the NAM N-W bias at 60 hours.

If this were circa November 20th and we were in the midst of a cool snap anyway whether there's anything on the charts or not ... Ineedelectroshock posters of the forum would be presently representing their razor sharp objective restraint by going hee-haw hee-haw galloot galloot galloot over this NAM's 6-10" warning snow event, having fully considered and judiciously constrained their emotions over the matter ....

Maybe the Euro or some other model supports.