Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

All emotion all the time?

Monday on GFS and Euro looked tailored to you.

Obviously a long way out but how do you arrive at Congrats Dendrite on this guidance except for emotion?

They’ve all trended north all spring . SNE will end up warm sectored in that 

[powderfreak]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They’ve all trended north all spring . SNE will end up warm sectored in that 

Possible, could also go so far under you it stays dry too.  But I get it, you’ll never even give it a chance of happening for the next 5 months regardless of model data.

 

[kdxken]

28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

All emotion all the time?

Monday on GFS and Euro looked tailored to you.

Obviously a long way out but how do you arrive at Congrats Dendrite on this guidance except for emotion?

Wait for it - "it always trends north"

[tamarack]

9 hours ago, vortex95 said:

*Any* wx anomaly or deviation now is news and hyped.  Inane.  As if everything should be exactly normal/avg all the time?  Guess what, normal/avg doesn't exist as many think it does!  And hyping how the planet works normally (that's what it has become now) and acting like something is wrong is pure drivel.

You can make a living on-line now just finding anything going on across the globe to the smallest minutia and hype it as if it is significant.  Basically taking the fact that "something is always going on" and making a big deal out of it no matter what.  Have to have that CONTENT for clicks/likes, engagement bait, drive the algorithms, and monetize!  It has become a sideshow within a sideshow and race to the bottom.

All true, and the newsies seem always focused on the worst-case scenarios.  ("If it bleeds, it leads.")

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Wait for it - "it always trends north"

If NJ was getting soaked on models, I feel like the fear would be it stays south and Stein has a grip, ha.

There’s no spot on a map for moisture that would illicit a “this looks good right now” .

[Cyclone-68]

I wish Thursday trends north but that’s “pie in the sky” 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, vortex95 said:

For Thu...
 

I am impressed w/ the very strong WAA early on Thu in the NEUS.  Atypical for summer.  That looks to produce some sig tstms in itself.  Thu afternoon is tricky b/c CAPE is lacking, but the shear is through the roof, as high as 85 kt 0-6 km and 45 kt 0-1 km.  I can't think of any event in the last several decades w/ warm sector shear so high here this time of year when a strong sfc low passes just to our N.

 

The 00z RRFS show a number of discrete storms Thu aftn w/ CAPE as high as 1150 in spots.  I know the RRFS can get carried away and I don't have a good feel for it yet, but overall given the existing anomalies for the wind fields, I am quite concerned.  I don't like that the sfc low is lifting/weakening as it moves across srn Quebec, but that may not matter in the end?

 

Given such setups as so rare here, using the very limited past analogs we have for sig tor events in the NEUS, we don't really know the full spectrum or what can happen here b/c of that rarity in itself!  I can honestly say I do not have a good forecast "feel" for this upcoming event in the NEUS b/c of the low CAPE, otherwise, it would be easy.

 

It looks really nasty for the Midwest Wed -- off the charts for parameters.  So how will that translate E?  Not just in the NEUS, but in the Mid-Atlantic.  Not every high-end svr event in  the Great Lakes/OH Valley/Midwest this time of year ends up being big the next day to the E.  I say "this time of year" b/c in the cool season, it is rare by default.  In the NEUS, everyone often thinks of the June 8-9, 1953 outbreak sequence, but it doesn't always work like that.

 

SPC DY3 outlook seems to focus on straight-line winds.  That does seems more likely given the very fast storm motions and wind fields.
 

 

 

That's what really popped out of the data for me was the shear... About as high as it can be -

Anytime I have a chance to lose my audience in here, I take it!  so here we go:  whenever you see high arctan angles ... ex,

.... resulting from curvature of the pressure field ( the circle), and you are in the SE quadrant of a total cyclonic envelope like below, you have large +helicity where ...

...is located.

Throw the fact that there's prooobably a warm boundary subtended/cutting straight across the tendency to turn, with it's excessively focused frontal induced curvature sending local tendencies into insane SRH... that becomes a total constructive feedback that sends roof tops on a magic carpet ride.

Now... consider the 570+ thickness advection clear to Brian's latitude, with 576 testy hairs tickling the pike... with QPF smeared around the illustrations?  That means you have very low LCL's to draw any rotating columns down into the boundary layer.  ...as though that's even needed given the former constraints.   my god

I mean ... may as well just put a tornado warning for everywhere now and call it a day

[Typhoon Tip]

Watch Michigan the day before ... tomorrow afternoon and evening.  

There's a little known 24-hour lead/lag Michigan to Massachusetts telecon that exists - and in this case ... the chart progression makes obvious the reason why. 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's what really popped out of the data for me was the shear... About as high as it can be -

Anytime I have a chance to lose my audience in here, I take it!  so here we go:  whenever you see high arctan angles ...

.... resulting from curvature of the pressure field ( the circle), and you are in the SE quadrant of a total cyclonic envelope, you have large +helicity where ...

...is located.

Throw the fact that there's prooobably a warm boundary subtended/cutting straight across the tendency to turn, with it's excessively focused frontal induced curvature sending local tendencies into insane SRH... that becomes a total constructive feedback that sends roof tops on a magic carpet ride.

Now... consider the 570+ thickness advection clear to Brian's latitude, with 576 testy hairs tickling the pike... with QPF smeared around the illustrations?  That means you have very low LCL's to draw any rotating columns down into the boundary layer.  ...as though that's even needed on the former constraints.   my god

I mean ... may as well just put a tornado warning for everywhere now and call it a day

The one drawback in this type of scenario too is you can often get a ton of clouds/precipitation...this is where something along the lines of an advecting EML because it allows for rapid clearing and capping behind the WAA driven precip. 

The other problem with Thursday too is the degree of shear is so strong and the lapse rates are so weak that it will be difficult to develop mature enough updrafts to really utilize the shear and be strong enough to continue growing vertically and not get toppled over. 

[FXWX]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The one drawback in this type of scenario too is you can often get a ton of clouds/precipitation...this is where something along the lines of an advecting EML because it allows for rapid clearing and capping behind the WAA driven precip. 

The other problem with Thursday too is the degree of shear is so strong and the lapse rates are so weak that it will be difficult to develop mature enough updrafts to really utilize the shear and be strong enough to continue growing vertically and not get toppled over. 

We've seen this "too much of a good thing" before?  Crazy shear values shredding updrafts before they can mature and do any damage.   But certainly, an interesting setup with close monitoring needed for fast moving; low-level spin-ups???

[FXWX]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Watch Michigan the day before ... tomorrow afternoon and evening.  

There's a little known 24-hour lead/lag Michigan to Massachusetts telecon that exists - and in this case ... the chart progression makes obvious the reason why. 

Agree

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

We've seen this "too much of a good thing" before?  Crazy shear values shredding updrafts before they can mature and do any damage.   But certainly, an interesting setup with close monitoring needed for fast moving; low-level spin-ups???

Setups with off the charts wind shear tend to not really produce just because sufficient buoyancy tends to be limited. If setups of this magnitude had a tendency to produce, our average tornado numbers would be significantly higher. These very large hodographs with the veered llvls imply a great deal of llvl warm air advection, which is great, but not when its a theme through the entire troposphere. 

With this said, these setups always need to be closely watched and monitored because even one tornado or pocket of wind damage is likely disruptive to life/property. We'll have to see how much buoyancy we can develop but when 500mb temps are only progged to be ~-7C or -8C...big flag you aren't getting much in that department, particularly enough to provide parcels with additional acceleration once past the LFC.

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The one drawback in this type of scenario too is you can often get a ton of clouds/precipitation...this is where something along the lines of an advecting EML because it allows for rapid clearing and capping behind the WAA driven precip. 

The other problem with Thursday too is the degree of shear is so strong and the lapse rates are so weak that it will be difficult to develop mature enough updrafts to really utilize the shear and be strong enough to continue growing vertically and not get toppled over. 

Mm...it sounds sorta like you're idealizing against a Plains profile in the back of your mind.  Not trying to tell you what you're thinking- just seems that way...  If so, no.  We don't do that around here - not very often anyway.  

EOF 1 and 2 swarms. 

In 1954, we set up 4,000 foot tall stove pipe finger of god and sent it drillin' for oil down near Worcester...  In 2010...sort of hybrid of that in Monson.  Otherwise,  that's apples to oranges for low LCL events.  High shear/helicity profiles spin even meager updraft motion, lower in the troposphere.   

Which ... not all the models concur on that profile, admittedly - some have the warm front clearing house (NAM).  However,  I'm also using an a-priori in knowledge/experience.  Warm boundaries don't just waltz on thru like the models are doing Thursday morning. 

So I could be wrong there.  If the warm front, incongruent to our climate as it may be, effortlessly and without resistence ... sails on past by 15z, we'll see the blue tinted hill side under blazing sun-wasted torrid miasma of 76F DPs because of weak sauce lapse rates and insufficient triggers.  

But there is one other option...hm.   You know, I'm not sure this is an analog - probably not at discrete analysis... but it does remind me of June 1987 ..I think it was around the 10th or 15th.. A morning warm front with elevated convection that actually became severe ... sending warned cells through midriff ORH county ... It all passed off by noon with abrupt clearing. The warm front cold front wedge was then in place.  By 1:30...full sun soared T over TD ... 86/73.   An explosion of thunderstorms erupted up the Mohawk Trail  W of ALB, and as it came ESE ... it evolved into a small Derecho ( probably would have been a big one if it didn't move out over the ocean later that evening...).   It came down Rt2 with routine gusts to 70mph, quarter sized hail, and a lot of power outages during the evening.   

 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm...it sounds sorta like you're idealizing against a Plains profile in the back of your mind.  Not trying to tell you what you're thinking- just seems that way...  If so, no.  We don't do that around here - not very often anyway.  

EOF 1 and 2 swarms. 

In 1954, we set up 4,000 foot tall stove pipe finger of god and sent it drillin' for oil down near Worcester...  In 2010...sort of hybrid of that in Monson.  Otherwise,  that's apples to oranges for low LCL events.  High shear/helicity profiles spin even meager updraft motion, lower in the troposphere.   

Which ... not all the models concur on that profile, admittedly - some have the warm front clearing house (NAM).  However,  I'm also using an a-priori in knowledge/experience.  Warm boundaries don't just waltz on thru like the models are doing Thursday morning. 

So I could be wrong there.  If the warm front, incongruent to our climate as it may be, effortlessly and without resistence ... sails on past by 15z, we'll see the blue tinted hill side under blazing sun-wasted torrid miasma of 76F DPs because of weak sauce lapse rates and insufficient triggers.  

But there is one other option...hm.   You know, I'm not sure this is an analog - probably not at discrete analysis... but it does remind me of June 1987 ..I think it was around the 10th or 15th.. A morning warm front with elevated convection actually become severe and send warned cells through midriff ORH county ... and it passed off by noon.  With a warm front.  By 1:30...full sun soar of T/TD ... 86/73.   An explosion of thunderstorms erupted up the Mohawk Trail  W of ALB, and as it came ESE ... it evolved into a small Derecho ( probably would have been a big one if it didn't move out over the ocean later that evening...).   I came down Rt2 with routine gusts to 70mph, quarter sized hail, and a lot of power outages during the evening.   

 

You're correct in that thinking and I am idealizing it that way. Adding perspective to this thinking though, the reason why I am idealizing it that way is because it works. But you're 100% correct, we don't do that around here, or extremely rarely. 

But it isn't proper or really correct to try and compare our environments or setups to those of the Plains. We all know why the Plains get higher-end/widespread outbreaks - EML. As you know, when it comes to getting severe weather or tornadoes - an EML isn't necessarily important (if you want widespread/high-end severe it is). 

So, I guess the jest of the series of posts is to try and put out there that in our discussion of this potential, we aren't calling for widespread severe or higher end severe...so if we only get a handful or svr reports or a tornado some aren't screaming "bust"...a handful of svr reports and even a tornado would fit the mold of what the most logical outcome is from this setup. 

This will be a mesoscale assessment for sure. We get dews 73-75F and bring about some cloud breaks...that would provide enough instability to perhaps fire a few cells and make those cells interesting. 

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

You're correct in that thinking and I am idealizing it that way. Adding perspective to this thinking though, the reason why I am idealizing it that way is because it works. But you're 100% correct, we don't do that around here, or extremely rarely. 

But it isn't proper or really correct to try and compare our environments or setups to those of the Plains. We all know why the Plains get higher-end/widespread outbreaks - EML. As you know, when it comes to getting severe weather or tornadoes - an EML isn't necessarily important (if you want widespread/high-end severe it is). 

So, I guess the jest of the series of posts is to try and put out there that in our discussion of this potential, we aren't calling for widespread severe or higher end severe...so if we only get a handful or svr reports or a tornado some aren't screaming "bust"...a handful of svr reports and even a tornado would fit the mold of what the most logical outcome is from this setup. 

This will be a mesoscale assessment for sure. We get dews 73-75F and bring about some cloud breaks...that would provide enough instability to perhaps fire a few cells and make those cells interesting. 

Yeah, SPC is taking the typical NE approach in stopping short of our lat/lon for slight and period 5s.   But I can imagine that will need to be extended NE.

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Mon-Tue looking like a shades closer

Yeah summer over UFN.

[HoarfrostHubb]

No real heat for at least a week... a bit AN but no torch

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Watch Michigan the day before ... tomorrow afternoon and evening.  

There's a little known 24-hour lead/lag Michigan to Massachusetts telecon that exists - and in this case ... the chart progression makes obvious the reason why. 

Little known?

[Cyclone-68]

History has shown (at least to me living in EMA) that depending on a warm front to break through and clear us out to set us up later is a lot to ask. I can’t even count the times we had solid overcast while I’m desperately wishing the clouds to break and the sun to shine while NYC and the region get pounded..I acknowledge I’m admittedly not exactly in a severe hot bed where I live but that’s been the scenario 8 out of 10 times here. 

[Brian5671]

only 71 here.   nice day 

[weatherwiz]

Screwed up earlier...I think I said uncapped Thursday but in fact, we may end up capped given how warm it is aloft. Best chance for anything during the afternoon may be the northern Hudson Valley actually into NNE where the forcing will be stronger and mlvl temps a bit cooler 

[CoastalWx]

Thursday looks like clouds and limited CAPE. But wind fields are impressive. Lets enjoy wasted kinematics.