Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

All emotion all the time?

Monday on GFS and Euro looked tailored to you.

Obviously a long way out but how do you arrive at Congrats Dendrite on this guidance except for emotion?

They’ve all trended north all spring . SNE will end up warm sectored in that 

[powderfreak]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They’ve all trended north all spring . SNE will end up warm sectored in that 

Possible, could also go so far under you it stays dry too.  But I get it, you’ll never even give it a chance of happening for the next 5 months regardless of model data.

 

[kdxken]

28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

All emotion all the time?

Monday on GFS and Euro looked tailored to you.

Obviously a long way out but how do you arrive at Congrats Dendrite on this guidance except for emotion?

Wait for it - "it always trends north"

[tamarack]

9 hours ago, vortex95 said:

*Any* wx anomaly or deviation now is news and hyped.  Inane.  As if everything should be exactly normal/avg all the time?  Guess what, normal/avg doesn't exist as many think it does!  And hyping how the planet works normally (that's what it has become now) and acting like something is wrong is pure drivel.

You can make a living on-line now just finding anything going on across the globe to the smallest minutia and hype it as if it is significant.  Basically taking the fact that "something is always going on" and making a big deal out of it no matter what.  Have to have that CONTENT for clicks/likes, engagement bait, drive the algorithms, and monetize!  It has become a sideshow within a sideshow and race to the bottom.

All true, and the newsies seem always focused on the worst-case scenarios.  ("If it bleeds, it leads.")

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Wait for it - "it always trends north"

If NJ was getting soaked on models, I feel like the fear would be it stays south and Stein has a grip, ha.

There’s no spot on a map for moisture that would illicit a “this looks good right now” .

[Cyclone-68]

I wish Thursday trends north but that’s “pie in the sky” 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, vortex95 said:

For Thu...
 

I am impressed w/ the very strong WAA early on Thu in the NEUS.  Atypical for summer.  That looks to produce some sig tstms in itself.  Thu afternoon is tricky b/c CAPE is lacking, but the shear is through the roof, as high as 85 kt 0-6 km and 45 kt 0-1 km.  I can't think of any event in the last several decades w/ warm sector shear so high here this time of year when a strong sfc low passes just to our N.

 

The 00z RRFS show a number of discrete storms Thu aftn w/ CAPE as high as 1150 in spots.  I know the RRFS can get carried away and I don't have a good feel for it yet, but overall given the existing anomalies for the wind fields, I am quite concerned.  I don't like that the sfc low is lifting/weakening as it moves across srn Quebec, but that may not matter in the end?

 

Given such setups as so rare here, using the very limited past analogs we have for sig tor events in the NEUS, we don't really know the full spectrum or what can happen here b/c of that rarity in itself!  I can honestly say I do not have a good forecast "feel" for this upcoming event in the NEUS b/c of the low CAPE, otherwise, it would be easy.

 

It looks really nasty for the Midwest Wed -- off the charts for parameters.  So how will that translate E?  Not just in the NEUS, but in the Mid-Atlantic.  Not every high-end svr event in  the Great Lakes/OH Valley/Midwest this time of year ends up being big the next day to the E.  I say "this time of year" b/c in the cool season, it is rare by default.  In the NEUS, everyone often thinks of the June 8-9, 1953 outbreak sequence, but it doesn't always work like that.

 

SPC DY3 outlook seems to focus on straight-line winds.  That does seems more likely given the very fast storm motions and wind fields.
 

 

 

That's what really popped out of the data for me was the shear... About as high as it can be -

Anytime I have a chance to lose my audience in here, I take it!  so here we go:  whenever you see high arctan angles ... ex,

.... resulting from curvature of the pressure field ( the circle), and you are in the SE quadrant of a total cyclonic envelope like below, you have large +helicity where ...

...is located.

Throw the fact that there's prooobably a warm boundary subtended/cutting straight across the tendency to turn, with it's excessively focused frontal induced curvature sending local tendencies into insane SRH... that becomes a total constructive feedback that sends roof tops on a magic carpet ride.

Now... consider the 570+ thickness advection clear to Brian's latitude, with 576 testy hairs tickling the pike... with QPF smeared around the illustrations?  That means you have very low LCL's to draw any rotating columns down into the boundary layer.  ...as though that's even needed given the former constraints.   my god

I mean ... may as well just put a tornado warning for everywhere now and call it a day

[Typhoon Tip]

Watch Michigan the day before ... tomorrow afternoon and evening.  

There's a little known 24-hour lead/lag Michigan to Massachusetts telecon that exists - and in this case ... the chart progression makes obvious the reason why. 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's what really popped out of the data for me was the shear... About as high as it can be -

Anytime I have a chance to lose my audience in here, I take it!  so here we go:  whenever you see high arctan angles ...

.... resulting from curvature of the pressure field ( the circle), and you are in the SE quadrant of a total cyclonic envelope, you have large +helicity where ...

...is located.

Throw the fact that there's prooobably a warm boundary subtended/cutting straight across the tendency to turn, with it's excessively focused frontal induced curvature sending local tendencies into insane SRH... that becomes a total constructive feedback that sends roof tops on a magic carpet ride.

Now... consider the 570+ thickness advection clear to Brian's latitude, with 576 testy hairs tickling the pike... with QPF smeared around the illustrations?  That means you have very low LCL's to draw any rotating columns down into the boundary layer.  ...as though that's even needed on the former constraints.   my god

I mean ... may as well just put a tornado warning for everywhere now and call it a day

The one drawback in this type of scenario too is you can often get a ton of clouds/precipitation...this is where something along the lines of an advecting EML because it allows for rapid clearing and capping behind the WAA driven precip. 

The other problem with Thursday too is the degree of shear is so strong and the lapse rates are so weak that it will be difficult to develop mature enough updrafts to really utilize the shear and be strong enough to continue growing vertically and not get toppled over. 

[FXWX]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The one drawback in this type of scenario too is you can often get a ton of clouds/precipitation...this is where something along the lines of an advecting EML because it allows for rapid clearing and capping behind the WAA driven precip. 

The other problem with Thursday too is the degree of shear is so strong and the lapse rates are so weak that it will be difficult to develop mature enough updrafts to really utilize the shear and be strong enough to continue growing vertically and not get toppled over. 

We've seen this "too much of a good thing" before?  Crazy shear values shredding updrafts before they can mature and do any damage.   But certainly, an interesting setup with close monitoring needed for fast moving; low-level spin-ups???

[FXWX]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Watch Michigan the day before ... tomorrow afternoon and evening.  

There's a little known 24-hour lead/lag Michigan to Massachusetts telecon that exists - and in this case ... the chart progression makes obvious the reason why. 

Agree

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

We've seen this "too much of a good thing" before?  Crazy shear values shredding updrafts before they can mature and do any damage.   But certainly, an interesting setup with close monitoring needed for fast moving; low-level spin-ups???

Setups with off the charts wind shear tend to not really produce just because sufficient buoyancy tends to be limited. If setups of this magnitude had a tendency to produce, our average tornado numbers would be significantly higher. These very large hodographs with the veered llvls imply a great deal of llvl warm air advection, which is great, but not when its a theme through the entire troposphere. 

With this said, these setups always need to be closely watched and monitored because even one tornado or pocket of wind damage is likely disruptive to life/property. We'll have to see how much buoyancy we can develop but when 500mb temps are only progged to be ~-7C or -8C...big flag you aren't getting much in that department, particularly enough to provide parcels with additional acceleration once past the LFC.