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Junorch obs and discussion 2026

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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powderfreak
powderfreak

Another day, another weird looking dog wandering around. Four times in two weeks I’ve run into them.  I think it’s two different bears, twice.  This one is younger, probably first year or two wit

dendrite
dendrite
powderfreak
powderfreak

Ground level.

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

those aren't scalar anomaly ranges ... They're probabilities for being above(below) at all... scaled. 

Yes but based on what?  500 mb heights?  Do they even factor in marine influences? And objectively, given the surface pattern in this case, it looks more like near normal or leaning below.  You have to wonder how much manual adjustment is made, or is it just straight model output averages like the NBM.

The public and even some mets don't see these outlooks as probability.  They often see the warm color, and think temps will be above avg this period.  I've even seen some clueless OCMs state when there is big cold probability bulls-eye present, "the polar vortex will be here!"

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Yes but based on what?  500 mb heights?  Do they even factor in marine influences? And objectively, given the surface pattern in this case, it looks more like near normal or leaning below.  You have to wonder how much manual adjustment is made, or is it just straight model output averages like the NBM.

The public and even some mets don't see these outlooks as probability.  They often see the warm color, and think temps will be above avg this period.  I've even seen some clueless OCMs state when there is big cold probability bulls-eye present, "the polar vortex will be here!"

Not sure ... 

For whatever method, those are probabilities tho. For whatever metrics they're weighting, not the actually anomalies like this sentence intimates:  "One thing I notice a lot is the CPC seems to overdo sfc temp anomalies."  

I blame CPC - most people misconstrue that product.  In fact, I've pointed this out on this site, to the same individuals who continue to do so  LOL ... and it doesn't seem to register.

They probably - or should ... but who knows - provide an explanation/methodology statement somewhere in their web access.   They do have a contact option.

The only thing they have is a confidence/probability by forecaster, but don't delve into what the forecaster is actually looking over. 

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metagraphica

metagraphica

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure ... 

For whatever method, those are probabilities tho. For whatever metrics they're weighting, not the actually anomalies like this sentence intimates:  "One thing I notice a lot is the CPC seems to overdo sfc temp anomalies."  

I blame CPC - most people misconstrue that product.  In fact, I've pointed this out on this site, to the same individuals who continue to do so  LOL ... and it doesn't seem to register.

They probably - or should ... but who knows - provide an explanation/methodology statement somewhere in their web access.   They do have a contact option.

The only thing they have is a confidence/probability by forecaster, but don't delve into what the forecaster is actually looking over. 

Yep, too many people look at that product and think "ooh red, it's gonna be hot" when it doesn't actually show temperatures at all.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Almost looks like smoke coming down from the NE today on visible today . Has the look

Models either missed this 300 mb shit streak or it was just not noticed but it's been completely slam shut ceilings here right during the big warming hours of the day, so ...yet again, 2026 finding the coldest way to weasel bust

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Models either missed this 300 mb shit streak or it was just not noticed but it's been completely slam shut ceilings here right during the big warming hours of the day, so ...yet again, 2026 finding the coldest way to weasel bust

Signs were there for this I think. PVA streaming from the north and still pretty cold at 500

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Yep, too many people look at that product and think "ooh red, it's gonna be hot" when it doesn't actually show temperatures at all.

It so easy to be misled, even for learned mets.  I would think there is better way to convey temps in the long range.

The colors CPC uses are ok, but you go on other sites, and it has been skewed towards warm colors even for cool temps in recent years.  It used to be very hot was dark red, but due to the shift up, you now get brownish-red and white!  At the same, colors used for cooler temps like the 50s and 60s, are no longer yellow or green, they are shades of orange.

This skews perception big time thinking it is "hotter" overall.  It's no different that what you see in some TV markets (OKC is one) where they jack up radar reflectivity levels so tstms look "meaner" than for conventional color tables have been used for decades.

This has real impacts.  I recall during the Iceland volcanic eruption in 2010 that shut down airspace for weeks across the NATL, forecast ash plumes from they HYSPLIT model and others, some would chose these eye-catching bright colors for ash levels/concentration, and you look at it thinking the entire NATL was covered in dense ash! The economic impact here alone can be be understated.

it should be standardized colors across all platforms for color tables used so you are comparing graphics apples to apples.  The avg person has trouble enough w/ interpreting or understanding wx, so don't make it any more complex that it needs to be!

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Signs were there for this I think. PVA streaming from the north and still pretty cold at 500

PVA?  I haven't heard that term used in some time.  Back in the day, it was DA BOMB in wx talk!  Not saying it is not important, but just looking at how the lingo has evolved.  Now it seems we use UVV, frontogenesis, deformation, and WAA/CAA more for the S+ weenie terms!

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

PVA?  I haven't heard that term used in some time.  Back in the day, it was DA BOMB in wx talk!  Not saying it is not important, but just looking at how the lingo has evolved.  Now it seems we use UVV, frontogenesis, deformation, and WAA/CAA more for the S+ weenie terms!

All the snow weenies care about are 10:1 and Kuchera :lol: 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

PVA?  I haven't heard that term used in some time.  Back in the day, it was DA BOMB in wx talk!  Not saying it is not important, but just looking at how the lingo has evolved.  Now it seems we use UVV, frontogenesis, deformation, and WAA/CAA more for the S+ weenie terms!

Lots of PVA/dPVA use in this subforum. A lot of us are just old enough to be in college when the NWS mets had to cram everything into acronyms because of bandwidth.

I have a habit of mixing METAR and SAO coding. I’ll usually use +SN or RA instead of S+ but rarely FZRA or PL…ZR/ZL and IP are my go-to’s. Not a fan of CLR either since that is the “clear below 12kft” nonsense. I always go SKC. I miss seeing BCFG, PRFG, MIFG, DRSN, etc too.

I’ll give myself a :weenie: for that. 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s nothing up here. Perfectly blue skies besides some Ci. MWN has been 80-90sm vis all day too. 

Yeah,  surface vis is excellant.  I can see Sunapee clearly which is 30 miles. There does seems to be a very thin layer of cirrus or something.  The Alto Cu is a bit hazy.  Hey Brian.  How many years ago did we buy those American Chestnut seedlings?  My trees are probably near 15 feet tall.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Yeah,  surface vis is excellant.  I can see Sunapee clearly which is 30 miles. There does seems to be a very thin layer of cirrus or something.  The Alto Cu is a bit hazy.  Hey Brian.  How many years ago did we buy those American Chestnut seedlings?  My trees are probably near 15 feet tall.

Oh man…2018 maybe? One of mine got blight last year. I mudpacked it this spring and it resulted in an ambrosia beetle attack. Unfortunately the beetles attacked the one next to it too. Both are still surviving and putting on new growth for now. But yeah, they’re all 15-20ft. The ones out front that I started from seed are shorter…5-10ft. I have 5 more that I got last spring…they’re in pots. The wild one in the back woods is still kickin. Looks like 35ft tall but it’s tall and relatively skinny looking for light. 

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