Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[kdxken]

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Cold crew is reeling with the shit pattern behind us.  Nothing left to troll 

Wanna to bet?

 

[Torch Tiger]

look

[vortex95]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

those aren't scalar anomaly ranges ... They're probabilities for being above(below) at all... scaled. 

Yes but based on what?  500 mb heights?  Do they even factor in marine influences? And objectively, given the surface pattern in this case, it looks more like near normal or leaning below.  You have to wonder how much manual adjustment is made, or is it just straight model output averages like the NBM.

The public and even some mets don't see these outlooks as probability.  They often see the warm color, and think temps will be above avg this period.  I've even seen some clueless OCMs state when there is big cold probability bulls-eye present, "the polar vortex will be here!"

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Yes but based on what?  500 mb heights?  Do they even factor in marine influences? And objectively, given the surface pattern in this case, it looks more like near normal or leaning below.  You have to wonder how much manual adjustment is made, or is it just straight model output averages like the NBM.

The public and even some mets don't see these outlooks as probability.  They often see the warm color, and think temps will be above avg this period.  I've even seen some clueless OCMs state when there is big cold probability bulls-eye present, "the polar vortex will be here!"

Not sure ... 

For whatever method, those are probabilities tho. For whatever metrics they're weighting, not the actually anomalies like this sentence intimates:  "One thing I notice a lot is the CPC seems to overdo sfc temp anomalies."  

I blame CPC - most people misconstrue that product.  In fact, I've pointed this out on this site, to the same individuals who continue to do so  LOL ... and it doesn't seem to register.

They probably - or should ... but who knows - provide an explanation/methodology statement somewhere in their web access.   They do have a contact option.

The only thing they have is a confidence/probability by forecaster, but don't delve into what the forecaster is actually looking over. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Almost looks like smoke coming down from the NE today on visible today . Has the look

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Saturday looks hot. Hopefully we can stave off the rain 

[metagraphica]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure ... 

For whatever method, those are probabilities tho. For whatever metrics they're weighting, not the actually anomalies like this sentence intimates:  "One thing I notice a lot is the CPC seems to overdo sfc temp anomalies."  

I blame CPC - most people misconstrue that product.  In fact, I've pointed this out on this site, to the same individuals who continue to do so  LOL ... and it doesn't seem to register.

They probably - or should ... but who knows - provide an explanation/methodology statement somewhere in their web access.   They do have a contact option.

The only thing they have is a confidence/probability by forecaster, but don't delve into what the forecaster is actually looking over. 

Yep, too many people look at that product and think "ooh red, it's gonna be hot" when it doesn't actually show temperatures at all.

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Almost looks like smoke coming down from the NE today on visible today . Has the look

Models either missed this 300 mb shit streak or it was just not noticed but it's been completely slam shut ceilings here right during the big warming hours of the day, so ...yet again, 2026 finding the coldest way to weasel bust

[Typhoon Tip]

here it is...300 mb

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Models either missed this 300 mb shit streak or it was just not noticed but it's been completely slam shut ceilings here right during the big warming hours of the day, so ...yet again, 2026 finding the coldest way to weasel bust

Signs were there for this I think. PVA streaming from the north and still pretty cold at 500

[vortex95]

58 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Yep, too many people look at that product and think "ooh red, it's gonna be hot" when it doesn't actually show temperatures at all.

It so easy to be misled, even for learned mets.  I would think there is better way to convey temps in the long range.

The colors CPC uses are ok, but you go on other sites, and it has been skewed towards warm colors even for cool temps in recent years.  It used to be very hot was dark red, but due to the shift up, you now get brownish-red and white!  At the same, colors used for cooler temps like the 50s and 60s, are no longer yellow or green, they are shades of orange.

This skews perception big time thinking it is "hotter" overall.  It's no different that what you see in some TV markets (OKC is one) where they jack up radar reflectivity levels so tstms look "meaner" than for conventional color tables have been used for decades.

This has real impacts.  I recall during the Iceland volcanic eruption in 2010 that shut down airspace for weeks across the NATL, forecast ash plumes from they HYSPLIT model and others, some would chose these eye-catching bright colors for ash levels/concentration, and you look at it thinking the entire NATL was covered in dense ash! The economic impact here alone can be be understated.

it should be standardized colors across all platforms for color tables used so you are comparing graphics apples to apples.  The avg person has trouble enough w/ interpreting or understanding wx, so don't make it any more complex that it needs to be!

[SouthCoastMA]

Pattern looks similar - don't see a consistent big heat signal. You'll get your warm days, hot days, then cooler days mixed in. Rinse wash, repeat.  

[vortex95]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Signs were there for this I think. PVA streaming from the north and still pretty cold at 500

PVA?  I haven't heard that term used in some time.  Back in the day, it was DA BOMB in wx talk!  Not saying it is not important, but just looking at how the lingo has evolved.  Now it seems we use UVV, frontogenesis, deformation, and WAA/CAA more for the S+ weenie terms!

[vortex95]

"A real-time parallel feed of RRFS and REFS will be available on or about July 7, 2026, on NOMADS for both NCEP Web services and NOAAPORT"
 

SCN26-048-Updated_RRFS_and_REFS_Implementation.aaa.pdf

[weatherwiz]

31 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

PVA?  I haven't heard that term used in some time.  Back in the day, it was DA BOMB in wx talk!  Not saying it is not important, but just looking at how the lingo has evolved.  Now it seems we use UVV, frontogenesis, deformation, and WAA/CAA more for the S+ weenie terms!

All the snow weenies care about are 10:1 and Kuchera