Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[kdxken]

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Cold crew is reeling with the shit pattern behind us.  Nothing left to troll 

Wanna to bet?

 

[Torch Tiger]

look

[vortex95]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

those aren't scalar anomaly ranges ... They're probabilities for being above(below) at all... scaled. 

Yes but based on what?  500 mb heights?  Do they even factor in marine influences? And objectively, given the surface pattern in this case, it looks more like near normal or leaning below.  You have to wonder how much manual adjustment is made, or is it just straight model output averages like the NBM.

The public and even some mets don't see these outlooks as probability.  They often see the warm color, and think temps will be above avg this period.  I've even seen some clueless OCMs state when there is big cold probability bulls-eye present, "the polar vortex will be here!"

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Yes but based on what?  500 mb heights?  Do they even factor in marine influences? And objectively, given the surface pattern in this case, it looks more like near normal or leaning below.  You have to wonder how much manual adjustment is made, or is it just straight model output averages like the NBM.

The public and even some mets don't see these outlooks as probability.  They often see the warm color, and think temps will be above avg this period.  I've even seen some clueless OCMs state when there is big cold probability bulls-eye present, "the polar vortex will be here!"

Not sure ... 

For whatever method, those are probabilities tho. For whatever metrics they're weighting, not the actually anomalies like this sentence intimates:  "One thing I notice a lot is the CPC seems to overdo sfc temp anomalies."  

I blame CPC - most people misconstrue that product.  In fact, I've pointed this out on this site, to the same individuals who continue to do so  LOL ... and it doesn't seem to register.

They probably - or should ... but who knows - provide an explanation/methodology statement somewhere in their web access.   They do have a contact option.

The only thing they have is a confidence/probability by forecaster, but don't delve into what the forecaster is actually looking over.