nj2va Posted yesterday at 02:39 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:39 AM 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS for 5pm Saturday. Chilly!!! I’m glad we’re heading south for the Memorial Day weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted yesterday at 03:18 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:18 AM 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS for 5pm Saturday. Chilly!!! My newly planted garden asked me to tell you to stop posting this, but secretly, I’ll take any below normal temps from now until October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted yesterday at 03:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:54 AM Given that we have a realistic shot of a 2.0+ °C El Niño this year, I decided to check how DCA has done snow-wise in those years. I used RONI, which goes back to 1950, and selected winters with ENSO >= 2.0 °C for DJF and JFM. 1972-73: 0.1" season total 1982-83: 27.6" season total, including 16.4" during the February 1983 blizzard 1991-92: 6.6" season total 2015-16: 22.2" season total, including 17.8" during January 2016 blizzard 50/50 odds, I'll take that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted yesterday at 05:05 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:05 AM 13 hours ago, Nomz said: Given that we have a realistic shot of a 2.0+ °C El Niño this year, I decided to check how DCA has done snow-wise in those years. I used RONI, which goes back to 1950, and selected winters with ENSO >= 2.0 °C for DJF and JFM. 1972-73: 0.1" season total 1982-83: 27.6" season total, including 16.4" during the February 1983 blizzard 1991-92: 6.6" season total 2015-16: 22.2" season total, including 17.8" during January 2016 blizzard 50/50 odds, I'll take that 97-98 oughta be on that list too, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted yesterday at 06:08 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:08 AM 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: 96-97 oughta be on that list too, right? Per RONI, JFM for 96-97 was 1.8 so I didn't count it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 11:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:48 AM WB 6Z EURO. Sunday is now showing more rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 11:49 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:49 AM WB 6Z EURO precip. total through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted yesterday at 11:59 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:59 AM I don’t believe the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted yesterday at 11:59 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:59 AM All signs point to a shift towards a wet pattern yet this is the three month drought outlook. What is the CPC smoking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted yesterday at 12:12 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:12 PM One of the WBAL Mets posted yesterday the update from WPC (I think) that it would take 7-14” of rain over the next 3 months just to get our t of severe drought status. Something like 14-21” to clear all drought status. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 04:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:54 PM 11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: 96-97 oughta be on that list too, right? 97-98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted yesterday at 05:25 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:25 PM 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: One of the WBAL Mets posted yesterday the update from WPC (I think) that it would take 7-14” of rain over the next 3 months just to get our t of severe drought status. Something like 14-21” to clear all drought status. Bring on the derecho’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted yesterday at 05:44 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:44 PM 11 hours ago, Nomz said: Per RONI, JFM for 96-97 was 1.8 so I didn't count it Whoops I meant 97-98, lol What was the number that year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted yesterday at 05:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:52 PM 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Whoops I meant 97-98, lol What was the number that year? A couple of dustings and a little freezing drizzle in December, after that absolutely nothing, not even any false alarms, due to continuous warmth (dewpoints above 60 on January 8!!) Edited to add: Dulles' *low* on 1/8/98 was an incredible 62! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 13 hours ago, WxUSAF said: One of the WBAL Mets posted yesterday the update from WPC (I think) that it would take 7-14” of rain over the next 3 months just to get our t of severe drought status. Something like 14-21” to clear all drought status. Interesting.. my grass is greener than it's been in years. Surely the reservoirs are dry with such a bombastic analysis.. oh wait, no.. they aren't even close to being tapped 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Interesting.. my grass is greener than it's been in years. Surely the reservoirs are dry with such a bombastic analysis.. oh wait, no.. they aren't even close to being tapped The hell are you talking about? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The hell are you talking about? Sorry.. its so dry that there is a 23% chance that the potomac basin reservoirs will be tapped within the next 6 months. Seeing how this area feeds the nation that's good news 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 43 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Sorry.. its so dry that there is a 23% chance that the potomac basin reservoirs will be tapped within the next 6 months. Seeing how this area feeds the nation that's good news If your argument is that its not dry this year then I got a bridge to sell you over the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 12 hours ago, Yeoman said: Sorry.. it’s so dry that there is a 23% chance that the potomac basin reservoirs will be tapped within the next 6 months. Seeing how this area feeds the nation that's good news The pattern finally changed, drought will be in the rear view mirror by the end of Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 15 hours ago, WxUSAF said: The hell are you talking about? Not sure why he thinks that is a "bombastic" analysis. I mean average rainfall for JJA in this area adds up to around 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago These are the deficits we're dealing with. For example, Calvert would need over 7 inches on top of the approx. 12 inches of normal rainfall for Jun-Aug just to get to average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago On 5/22/2026 at 8:12 AM, WxUSAF said: One of the WBAL Mets posted yesterday the update from WPC (I think) that it would take 7-14” of rain over the next 3 months just to get our t of severe drought status. Something like 14-21” to clear all drought status. This point will need to be hammered home with the public. We're already fielding questions at work, on a weekend, about why there's water restrictions with "all this rain we've had recently". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This point will need to be hammered home with the public. We're already fielding questions at work, on a weekend, about why there's water restrictions with "all this rain we've had recently". The general public doesn't understand any of this stuff. 'Its raining and my grass is green. Why are you inconveniencing me?'. People are pretty dopey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, CAPE said: The general public doesn't understand any of this stuff. 'Its raining and my grass is green. Why are you inconveniencing me?'. People are pretty dopey. Yeoman and 53 have never believed in droughts...I think they believe there's an unlimited amount of water and talk of drought is a hoax. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, aldie 22 said: Yeoman and 53 have never believed in droughts...I think they believe there's an unlimited amount of water and talk of drought is a hoax. Among other things. Ofc there is a connection.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 10 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Yeoman and 53 have never believed in droughts...I think they believe there's an unlimited amount of water and talk of drought is a hoax. I don't understand...rain guage numbers are right there in your back yard. And we have our yearly averages vs. where we are. I mean stuff even a layman can understand that doesn't need a ton of science. So I don't get how you can say it's not real unless as CAPE said it's connected to the other thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't understand...rain guage numbers are right there in your back yard. And we have our yearly averages vs. where we are. I mean stuff even a layman can understand that doesn't need a ton of science. So I don't get how you can say it's not real unless as CAPE said it's connected to the other thing. They probably think its a deficit to that number but we aren't in danger of running out of water. I guess they take the term drought literally. Im sure one of them will chime in calling me an asshole soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The general public doesn't understand any of this stuff. 'Its raining and my grass is green. Why are you inconveniencing me?'. People are pretty dopey. Unfortunately, in this country, the general public operates on feeling...we see this played out in many different areas, lol You see all the rain we're getting and it doesn't "feel" like a drought and this rain "feels" like it's fixing it. I wish people would just think a little more about these things but...not how we operate apparently, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 49 minutes ago Share Posted 49 minutes ago 55 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Unfortunately, in this country, the general public operates on feeling...we see this played out in many different areas, lol You see all the rain we're getting and it doesn't "feel" like a drought and this rain "feels" like it's fixing it. I wish people would just think a little more about these things but...not how we operate apparently, smh It's called truthiness. Many people prefer it, despite factual evidence to the contrary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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