May 2026 Medium / Long Range

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS for 5pm Saturday.  Chilly!!!

I’m glad we’re heading south for the Memorial Day weekend. 

[nw baltimore wx]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS for 5pm Saturday.  Chilly!!!

My newly planted garden asked me to tell you to stop posting this, but secretly, I’ll take any below normal temps from now until October.

[Nomz]

Given that we have a realistic shot of a 2.0+ °C El Niño this year, I decided to check how DCA has done snow-wise in those years. I used RONI, which goes back to 1950, and selected winters with ENSO >= 2.0 °C for DJF and JFM.

1972-73: 0.1" season total

1982-83: 27.6" season total, including 16.4" during the February 1983 blizzard

1991-92: 6.6" season total

2015-16: 22.2" season total, including 17.8" during January 2016 blizzard

50/50 odds, I'll take that

[Maestrobjwa]

13 hours ago, Nomz said:

Given that we have a realistic shot of a 2.0+ °C El Niño this year, I decided to check how DCA has done snow-wise in those years. I used RONI, which goes back to 1950, and selected winters with ENSO >= 2.0 °C for DJF and JFM.

1972-73: 0.1" season total

1982-83: 27.6" season total, including 16.4" during the February 1983 blizzard

1991-92: 6.6" season total

2015-16: 22.2" season total, including 17.8" during January 2016 blizzard

50/50 odds, I'll take that

97-98 oughta be on that list too, right?

[Nomz]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

96-97 oughta be on that list too, right?

Per RONI, JFM for 96-97 was 1.8 so I didn't count it

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO.  Sunday is now showing more rain as well.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO precip. total through Monday.

[North Balti Zen]

I don’t believe the euro.

[JenkinsJinkies]

All signs point to a shift towards a wet pattern yet this is the three month drought outlook. What is the CPC smoking?

[WxUSAF]

One of the WBAL Mets posted yesterday the update from WPC (I think) that it would take 7-14” of rain over the next 3 months just to get our t of severe drought status. Something like 14-21” to clear all drought status. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

96-97 oughta be on that list too, right?

97-98

[konksw]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

One of the WBAL Mets posted yesterday the update from WPC (I think) that it would take 7-14” of rain over the next 3 months just to get our t of severe drought status. Something like 14-21” to clear all drought status. 

Bring on the derecho’s. 

[Maestrobjwa]

11 hours ago, Nomz said:

Per RONI, JFM for 96-97 was 1.8 so I didn't count it

Whoops I meant 97-98, lol What was the number that year?

[kgottwald]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Whoops I meant 97-98, lol What was the number that year?

A couple of dustings and a little freezing drizzle in December, after that absolutely nothing, not even any false alarms, due to continuous warmth (dewpoints above 60 on January 8!!)

Edited to add: Dulles' *low* on 1/8/98 was an incredible 62!

[Yeoman]

13 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

One of the WBAL Mets posted yesterday the update from WPC (I think) that it would take 7-14” of rain over the next 3 months just to get our t of severe drought status. Something like 14-21” to clear all drought status. 

Interesting.. my grass is greener than it's been in years. Surely the reservoirs are dry with such a bombastic analysis.. oh wait, no.. they aren't even close to being tapped

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Interesting.. my grass is greener than it's been in years. Surely the reservoirs are dry with such a bombastic analysis.. oh wait, no.. they aren't even close to being tapped

The hell are you talking about?

[Yeoman]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The hell are you talking about?

Sorry.. its so dry that there is a 23% chance that the potomac basin reservoirs will be tapped within the next 6 months. Seeing how this area feeds the nation that's good news

[SnowenOutThere]

43 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Sorry.. its so dry that there is a 23% chance that the potomac basin reservoirs will be tapped within the next 6 months. Seeing how this area feeds the nation that's good news

If your argument is that its not dry this year then I got a bridge to sell you over the Potomac.