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28 minutes ago, JLPhill said:

I'm a longtime follower and infrequent poster who grew up on the South Shore but now lives in Huntington Station. I'm a little confused by the complaints about this spring. Maybe it's because I'm used to the relentless sea breezes on the South Shore, but this spring has been well above average in terms of temperature and overall weather.

My ambient station, which is well-sited and typically runs highs somewhere between LGA and FRG, is showing an average high temperature of 57.3 from March 1 through today: 52.6 in March and 63.4 in April. That feels closer to a Central Jersey spring than a Long Island one.

Even the data that @bluewave shared shows JFK/ISP at 55.5/54.3 average spring-to-date, versus normals of 52.7 and 51.9 with precip below normal.

Definitely been warm since 3/1 or so.  With regard to April have to consider the 5 days of +20 to +30 skewing things abit.   But I'm in your camp-so far we've done ok this spring.   Some years it seems like we get days and days of stratus and 45 degrees

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14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Definitely been warm since 3/1 or so.  With regard to April have to consider the 5 days of +20 to +30 skewing things abit.   But I'm in your camp-so far we've done ok this spring.   Some years it seems like we get days and days of stratus and 45 degrees

Spring is just typically a lousy season here. The best weather months here are Sept-Oct when you still have the warmed up ocean waters but the heat waves are over. 

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53 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Spring is just typically a lousy season here. The best weather months here are Sept-Oct when you still have the warmed up ocean waters but the heat waves are over. 

I don't disagree with that. I think my expectations are appropriately low given the climate. We could also live in Boston. 

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19 minutes ago, JLPhill said:

I don't disagree with that. I think my expectations are appropriately low given the climate. We could also live in Boston. 

Boston also regularly gets 40"+ per winter. That's their cost for the good winters. 

GFS looks generally putrid for the remainder of the month into May with blocky wet nastiness. Hope people are enjoying today.

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A cool and wet weekend lies ahead. Highs will reach only the lower 50s tomorrow and the middle and upper 50s on Sunday.

Periods of rain are likely on tomorrow into Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 0.50"-1.50" with a few locally higher amounts are likely across the region.

Beyond the weekend, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal for the remainder of April. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was -10.82 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.231 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.3° (1.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A cool and wet weekend lies ahead. Highs will reach only the lower 50s tomorrow and the middle and upper 50s on Sunday.

Periods of rain are likely on tomorrow into Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 0.50"-1.50" with a few locally higher amounts are likely across the region.

Beyond the weekend, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal for the remainder of April. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was -10.82 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.231 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.3° (1.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

I notice the April likely mean temp departures are going down lately. :(

Tomorrow and Sunday will knock 'em down another notch. Today was gorgeous though, got in a hike on Jayne's Hill and West Hills. 

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7 hours ago, JLPhill said:

I'm a longtime follower and infrequent poster who grew up on the South Shore but now lives in Huntington Station. I'm a little confused by the complaints about this spring. Maybe it's because I'm used to the relentless sea breezes on the South Shore, but this spring has been well above average in terms of temperature and overall weather.

My ambient station, which is well-sited and typically runs highs somewhere between LGA and FRG, is showing an average high temperature of 57.3 from March 1 through today: 52.6 in March and 63.4 in April. That feels closer to a Central Jersey spring than a Long Island one.

Even the data that @bluewave shared shows JFK/ISP at 55.5/54.3 average spring-to-date, versus normals of 52.7 and 51.9 with precip below normal.

I was comparing our weather(I am in Melville)to New Jersey, not the immediate coast. 
You make good point about a normal spring here.  I’ve grown accustomed to warmer springs.  
And last week was such a tease weather wise. 

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53 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I notice the April likely mean temp departures are going down lately. :(

Tomorrow and Sunday will knock 'em down another notch. Today was gorgeous though, got in a hike on Jayne's Hill and West Hills. 

April temps will take a hit.  
 

Jayne’s Hill is an enjoyable hike.  My dogs love it

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40 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Today isnt gonna be as bad as hyped. At least not the first half

It sure as heck isn’t great for outdoor activities.   Currently at an intramural baseball game. Feels like early March in late April.  Hopefully the travel doubleheader is canceled for later due to rain. 

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48 / 41 clouds east flow.  Rain - brunt if it between 2PM and 2AM with more to the north and an overall 0.50 - 1.50 for the area.  Cool overall through the next 10 - 14 days with trough into the east.  Moderation in the May 5-9 timeframe.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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