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6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2009-10 was a west-based el nino, correct? 

2010-11 is probably an exception to the strong la nina/SE ridge correlation because we got a really good winter here as well. Was there any ridge that winter?

Yes

10-11 was pretty cold. It was our last deeply -NAO Winter

3-21-2024.png

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Tomorrow will start off with unseasonably cold temperatures. Lows will fall into the middle or upper 30s in New York City. Areas outside of New York City could experience a late-season freeze. Highs will reach the middle 50s. Wednesday will be somewhat milder. The temperature could approach or reach 70° on Thursday before another cooling trend commences.

No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future. Some showers are possible during the weekend. There remains some risk for a more meaningful rainfall given the lead time involved.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was -0.07 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.178 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.2° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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