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6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2009-10 was a west-based el nino, correct? 

2010-11 is probably an exception to the strong la nina/SE ridge correlation because we got a really good winter here as well. Was there any ridge that winter?

Yes

10-11 was pretty cold. It was our last deeply -NAO Winter

3-21-2024.png

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Tomorrow will start off with unseasonably cold temperatures. Lows will fall into the middle or upper 30s in New York City. Areas outside of New York City could experience a late-season freeze. Highs will reach the middle 50s. Wednesday will be somewhat milder. The temperature could approach or reach 70° on Thursday before another cooling trend commences.

No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future. Some showers are possible during the weekend. There remains some risk for a more meaningful rainfall given the lead time involved.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was -0.07 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.178 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.2° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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Got this from SNE subforum.  Everywhere was warm last night  except the Northeast. Continuation of the pattern in the winter. 

Looks like a wet stretch coming up this weekend and into May.

IMG_8245.jpeg.9e4743efeb0b03b3d83f94f17409e0c6.jpeg

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White Plains saw the temperature fall below 30F (-1.1C) this morning. The last time it got at least as cold this late in the season was April 23, 1982 when the low was 26F (-3.3C). The low of 28F (-2.2C) broke the daily record of 29F (-1.7C) from 1981. 

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4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Of course it does. I am going to the Savannah Bananas on Sunday. We can’t have nice weather for that…

I’m suppose to go Saturday night.  Hope weather improves for the weekend. 

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9 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

This is really impressive after the heat of last week. Not too often do you have highs in the 90s followed so close to freezing temps. 

This was a record breaking April temperature drop spanning around 5 days. These charts are just for hourly reports and miss highs or lows recorded between hours. Spots that radiate well dropped more than 60°.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&v=tmpf&hours=111&month=apr&dir=cool&how=exact&syear=1900&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

IMG_6140.thumb.png.7750838f80610dc90f6ce0c3ca75a94e.png

IMG_6139.thumb.png.b202093a69f72617b56ee2c639705fc8.png

 

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Thanks Colonel Kurtz from a philly board for these stats, impressive! Both obviously record lows.

27 degrees at TTN is the coldest this late in the season on record, previous latest 27 degrees was 4/20/1926, AVE date of the last 27 degree day is 3/25

24 degrees at ABE is also the coldest this late in the season on record, previous latest 24 degrees was 4/16/1943, AVE date of the last 24 degree day is 3/26

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2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Thanks Colonel Kurtz from a philly board for these stats, impressive! Both obviously record lows.

27 degrees at TTN is the coldest this late in the season on record, previous latest 27 degrees was 4/20/1926, AVE date of the last 27 degree day is 3/25

24 degrees at ABE is also the coldest this late in the season on record, previous latest 24 degrees was 4/16/1943, AVE date of the last 24 degree day is 3/26

Impressive airmass and even more so after a week of 80-90 degrees

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