Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I must be the only human in existence who wishes for stormy weather when he goes away lol 

When I’m on vacation with kids I want good weather. 
 

I was in Orlando for Hurricane Erin in 95. That was cool. 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dewy summer anyone?Why .. yes . yes it shall be.

 

 

Not to be contrarian or argumentative but ... that just looks like background CC ( or expectation thereof ) to me.   

Remember, those products are not trying to equate color with the 'OMG' factor.  Ha.  Seriously, those are probabilities for occurrence.  They don't address magnitude.   

For ex, if those "warm" regions were to verify +.01 for JJA, that is considered a success in claiming there was 50, 60 ...90% chance for above normal.  That's it. Nothing more.

I will add that this has been explained a hundred times...yet people still post those CPC outlook graphics like look out! We're red hot!   These are probabilities... probabilities... probabilities..., for above normal  at all... at all... at all...

[weatherwiz]

That is one heck of an evolution to kick off May. That is a pretty nasty block and a good looking block too...that's the type of blocking we want to see in Jan/Feb lol. 

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

DSD on Thursday and good chance to eke out 60 there as well. 
 

Thurs to Monday 60

Perfect.

This air mass is both colder than normal, but also... rather prone to machine/automation busts.  It's just because the sun is by now seasonally hugely potent, and growing. 

I was just looking at Friday...  that's a general light WNW to NW down slope compression look under an 850mb -2 or -3.  Jeez, I've seen it be almost 60 F over a snow pack in mid February due to full sun under 0C 850s.  So, although-2 or -3 is a bit of a neg anom, the surface results can be offset quite a bit when compression from air down sloping happens under all that solar power dumping into the environment.   Wouldn't shock me to see those MEX numbers verify too cool 

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Down at Sanibel Island FL and the scars from Ian are still evident. Lots of dead trees from the surge and broken palms. Also lots of new palms planted held up by stilts at the condo complex we are staying. The whole first floor of the place was destroyed, but they had no power for 8 months so even on the other floors, the mold build up meant everything had to go. The couple at the pool who owns here joked and said the place was 40 years old and needed to be upgraded anyways…but laughed saying he didn’t expect it to be this way. 

Are the scars as deep as the ones you have from a series of failed winters?

[Typhoon Tip]

You can actually see the thermal processing of the lower levels on the 06z UKMET for Friday rather nicely...  This lobe of modestly warmed 850 mb layout bulbing up over SNE around 21z is definitely because of the sun + compressed d-slope working it over.  This is one of those 60 day dandies Brian was mentioning yesterday.   I also recall mentioning a couple three days ago that the pattern didn't really look crushingly negative to me - more like neutral with an offsetting lean. It's just hard to get us BN frankly, unless we have more direct feeds of perpetual inject into the region - hint hint, which we did this last winter

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Are the scars as deep as the ones you have from a series of failed winters?

Not as deep. Those will forever remain with more expected next winter. 

[metagraphica]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

0.00 as well . Most didn’t get much of anything. 

 

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

We got some rain..not alot but everything soaked, had to use wipers coming into work. 

Nice couple of hours of rain down here. Still a bit of drizzle. Grass/weeds are happy.

[Typhoon Tip]

55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is one heck of an evolution to kick off May. That is a pretty nasty block and a good looking block too...that's the type of blocking we want to see in Jan/Feb lol. 

It looks 'to me' like that's sort of symbolic as a last hurrah, like a winter death gasp before those in the room swear to seeing a glow exiting the body... Might even manifest as a bona fide coastal/Nor'easter ( before gallooting, know that it would swept rains).  And I wouldn't be shocked if a new moon is scheduled then, too.  That's always like that.  Jesus.  I've stopped fighting why and just assume at this point.  The Earth's atmosphere always wants to pick on Block Island during full moon/spring tide.  Just use the modeled atmosphere to tell when the spring tide is there - without even using astro charts ... heh.  If there isn't a spring tide, then the modeled low ends up not happening.   "Seems" is not the same as correlation though so... tfwiw. 

Anyway, after that would-be event ( or just the 30th -2nd period in general), I sense a significant flip may occur - pun unavoidable.  Lately I've seen very very subtle hints in the operational Euro model's extended artistry for blocking breakdowns. As of last night, the control version of both the EPS and the GEFs systems are nose diving the PNA very negative into the first week of the month.  Mind us, this is the 22nd of April so it's not like that's a coon's age away.  We'll see.  I'm wondering if this time next week we're looking at an impressive see-saw warming over the eastern mid latitudes - above season/climo.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It looks 'to me' like that's sort of symbolic as like a last hurrah exit... might even manifest as a bona fide coastal/Nor'easter - though before gallooting, know that it would swept rains.  I wouldn't be shocked if a new moon is scheduled then too.  I've stopped fighting why the Earth's atmosphere always picks on Block Island during full moon/spring tides, and just now use the modeled atmosphere to tell when they are without using astro charts ... heh.

Anyway, after that would-be event ( just just the 30th -2nd period in general), I sense a significant flip may occur.  I could see very very subtle hints of that in the operational Euro model's extended artistry, but now the control version of both its, and the GFS's ensemble systems are nose diving the PNA very negative into the first week of the month.  Mind us, this is the 22nd of April so it's not like it's a coon's age away.  We'll see.  I'm wondering if the this time next week we're looking at an impressive see-saw warming over the eastern mid latitudes - above season/climo.

People would probably hate this but like I mentioned yesterday, a Nor'easter bringing a region wide soaking wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. But lets just hope we start to flip things not too long after. 

I've been intrigued by this idea over the past few days and it got me thinking about what you said last week regarding there being some atmospheric hangover in the modeling from the current NAO we are in. Admittedly, I have not looked at ensembles yet and just going off some OP runs, so not sure what kind of signal the ensembles have, but just looking at the NAO forecast, there seems to be a bit of spread in the NAO forecast moving forward, but the signal is for the NAO becoming less negative over time...but if you play out the OP (GFS) that signal looks just opposite. So I am wondering if perhaps the OP might be a bit out too lunch. Looking at ensembles though would certainly help answer this question  But I don't really care about that far ahead yet so haven't put any heavy detailed thought into it lol

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

People would probably hate this but like I mentioned yesterday, a Nor'easter bringing a region wide soaking wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. But lets just hope we start to flip things not too long after. 

I've been intrigued by this idea over the past few days and it got me thinking about what you said last week regarding there being some atmospheric hangover in the modeling from the current NAO we are in. Admittedly, I have not looked at ensembles yet and just going off some OP runs, so not sure what kind of signal the ensembles have, but just looking at the NAO forecast, there seems to be a bit of spread in the NAO forecast moving forward, but the signal is for the NAO becoming less negative over time...but if you play out the OP (GFS) that signal looks just opposite. So I am wondering if perhaps the OP might be a bit out too lunch. Looking at ensembles though would certainly help answer this question  But I don't really care about that far ahead yet so haven't put any heavy detailed thought into it lol

Oh, completely agreed!   ( full disclosure, I'm hoping for it).   I don't wanna give Kevin any reason at all to start pimping drought fallacies in attempts to set up the dystopian d-drip doses all summer... meanwhile, my lawn stays green until mid august. 

Yeah, as far as the NAO handling... it's ( we know this -) obviously a stochastic index domain... but I sort of ignore the distractions of the individual model runs and just rely on a combination of 3 basics:  the 5 day running mean of the synoptic structure; climatology;  personal experience - as you mentioned, that -NAOs tend to blossom/lag after a period of usual early warmth - particularly when said warmth is over the eastern mid latitude continent. This latter need correlative proof and is personally anecdotal, but it is a late winter and spring phenomenon I have noted over many years.  

Just combining all that gunk... -NAO appears set up and well ?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Another nice weekend incoming.

Friday to Sunday. 

Sunny and 60. 
 

 

40s and 50 down here for my sons baptism

[MJO812]

Weeklies

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh, completely agreed!   ( full disclosure, I'm hoping for it).   I don't wanna give Kevin any reason at all to start pimping utterly fallacies in attempts to set up the dystopian d-drip doses all summer... meanwhile, my lawn stays green until mid august. 

Yeah, as far as the NAO handling... it's ( we know this -) obviously a stochastic index domain... but I just sort of ignore the distractions of the individual model runs and just rely on a combination of 3 basics:  the 5 day running mean of the synoptic structure; climatology;  personal experience - as you mentioned, that -NAOs tend to blossom/lag after a period of usual early warmth - particularly when said warmth is over the eastern mid latitude continent. This latter need correlative proof and is personally anecdotal, but it is a late winter and spring phenomenon I have noted over many years.  

Just combining all that gunk... -NAO appears set up and well ?

I recall coming across something recently too (I forgot who it was) about the PV vortex and how it seemed to be much slower with its seasonal demise through the spring so far. It's like the hemisphere on our side of the globe is dying to get us into an early summer but the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere is still programed to be blocky. Maybe rooting for these early season anomalous warm spells isn't a good idea lol...I mean eventually the ridging in place responsible for that warmth has to get shunted east (unless its a scenario in which the ridge just totally breaks down) and what happens when that ridging shunts east? You are building those positive heights into Greenland and it's hello block. With this we've fed the Arctic domain what it needs to become manifested in what it wants to do and the result is...weeks of hell. 

One thing that makes me really nervous going into May is the signal for some stout ridging to develop across the north Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska. Eventually these teleconnections should begin to break down and their influence subside, but this opens the door to get omega block like moving into May.  

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I recall coming across something recently too (I forgot who it was) about the PV vortex and how it seemed to be much slower with its seasonal demise through the spring so far. It's like the hemisphere on our side of the globe is dying to get us into an early summer but the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere is still programed to be blocky. Maybe rooting for these early season anomalous warm spells isn't a good idea lol...I mean eventually the ridging in place responsible for that warmth has to get shunted east (unless its a scenario in which the ridge just totally breaks down) and what happens when that ridging shunts east? You are building those positive heights into Greenland and it's hello block. With this we've fed the Arctic domain what it needs to become manifested in what it wants to do and the result is...weeks of hell. 

One thing that makes me really nervous going into May is the signal for some stout ridging to develop across the north Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska. Eventually these teleconnections should begin to break down and their influence subside, but this opens the door to get omega block like moving into May.  

We keep in mind also that the ambient thermal gradient between the tropic of Cancer and 50 N is getting weaker and weaker.  By June, it's usually getting to it's perennial nadir - with the exception of any jet meanders which do happen once in a while. 

By and large though that all means the long wave, wave lengths are shortened to the point where any would-be NE Pac positive anomaly doesn't teleconnect that same in late May through late August as it does in  late Novie through Feb/March.  Shorter wave lengths in fact can intuitively signal a SW Canadian negative, over top a Great Basin/SW conus capping ridge, setting up future Sonoran release events...  Quit a different implication from -EPO/January

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Remember back in early April some thought the weeklies were bullshit @Brian5671 @jbenedet and you?

They are not always great beyond week 2.   March was supposed to be cold and stormy instead it was a dry torch. I can think of a bunch of winters where they advertised a switch to cold and stormy and it never happened.   So who knows maybe they'll be right this time.  There is blocking developing so would lean towards cooler/wetter

[Typhoon Tip]

42 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

They are not always great beyond week 2.   March was supposed to be cold and stormy instead it was a dry torch.    So who knows maybe they'll be right this time.  There is blocking developing so would lean towards cooler/wetter

Ha!   didn't y'all just have this exact same conversation two weeks ago? 

I don't think he's inclined to agree with you, much less even read further than 'not great' when it comes to whatever it is he's using to promote the avoidance of inevitable seasonal progression toward summer.   hahaha.  that goes on here a lot. Like no problem admitting summer; but don't admit to signs and process -