Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Gotta love how non representative these ASOS sites are sometimes

My local site showed 29 for the low and there’s definitely ice all over the place. The pine barrens near FOK radiate like crazy on a cold night and there are differences in small areas here where there are state parks, near a bay/ocean or where it’s more urbanized. I thought tonight was supposed to be the cold night since the freeze warning here’s for tonight.  

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Why can’t we get that?

Only 2 months away. In the meantime we rationalize 50s and sun as being nice spring days.

 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Only 2 months away. In the meantime we rationalize 50s and sun as being nice spring days.

We were just hanging out in the neighborhood commenting on how nice it was when I realized we were actually -5 on the high. 

[CoastalWx]

Weren’t we told frosts are done at DAW?

[dendrite]

Let’s get this to verify 

[dendrite]

21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We were just hanging out in the neighborhood commenting on how nice it was when I realized we were actually -5 on the high. 

55° and sun keeps feeling better right into June

[Ginx snewx]

Sping! (Sp)some understand 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

55° and sun keeps feeling better right into June

DGW

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sping! (Sp)some understand 

Got the charts for CON?

[Typhoon Tip]

After today and tomorrow the patterning looks like 10 days ( to start ...) of persistent nondescript neutral Ts...  with 'tendencies' along the way for BN. It's just that typical model regression in mid spring tends to oversell cold looks in the mids and extended ranges.  Then combining that bias with "some kinda" coefficient CC forcing from the background state, together probably helps to suspend closer to neutral.  It's just harder to sustain below normal then it used to be decades ago.

The -NAO is looking pretty weak in the operational runs... tending to limit the physical manifestation of that index state by being both inconsistent with the magnitude of actual ridging up there, but also ranging placement between the western and eastern limb.  Which matters... east would allow warmer hgts to creep farther N over the mid latitude continent. I.e., maybe not as bad for warm enthusiasts here after all.  West variant, however, during a flaccid slackening gradient would probably cut off lows near Cape Cod and really ratchet up the Count Rugen torture. 

That said, there's still something of it there.  Because the behavior of transits; having trouble getting N of our latitude is -NAO suggestive.  Some amount of suppression is modeled nonetheless. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Got the charts for CON?

 

[dendrite]

I like the ens member with a high of 35° on May 1st

[weatherwiz]

Looks like we miss out on at least some isolated thunderstorms tomorrow night...looks to be back over PA. Looks to be associated with the approaching warm front and some decent lapse rates/elevated instability. Nice theta-e ridge too. Maybe some upslope snows though for the southern Greens? 

[dendrite]

36.1° -SN flurries

Happy 420

[Spanks45]

Well, at least the peach tree flowers were beautiful....after last night and tonight, we will not be eating fruit from those trees this year. Temp was 27.3⁰ this morning with heavy frost, can only imagine a few degrees lower tonight finish them off....

[SouthCoastMA]

Mother's Day at this point? looks like a stubborn cool/cold pattern..brutal

[dendrite]

35° SHSN

Getting some heavier bursts in this plume.

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

35° SHSN

Getting some heavier bursts in this plume.

Someone's not happy with you.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Why can’t we get that?

We got that last week. Widespread 80s and 90s in the Northeast US.

[tamarack]

9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

We got that last week. Widespread 80s and 90s in the Northeast US.

Grandkids in Gloucester County enjoyed the heat.  We managed to reach 70 last Tuesday.  Then yesterday brought cold rain (0.66") that ended with a coating of snow, and 24° this morning.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not a bad bounce back here this monring.. 44 sucks, but it was 28 at dawn.   Helluva lot better. I'm sure we're hitting the bounce ceiling soon...   

Suppose we can keep the wind from kissing napes too much, the power of that sun, Aug 20 equiv for shits and gigs ...  101 in window shut parked car, 46 outside the window?     Just imagine asking any given August 20 to be held < 50. 

We may start destructing by diurnal cu, too 

[Typhoon Tip]

Nice to be contending with this while relative to date and history we are presently "enjoying" the 2nd or 3rd warmest Earth since the invention of thermometers ...

[Typhoon Tip]

42 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

We got that last week. Widespread 80s and 90s in the Northeast US.

mm...  N-E of an approximate Albany - Boston line did not register "widespread 80s and 90s" last week.

Along that line did observe a couple of afternoons where it crept in but it would shunt... collapsing back into CT.  By and large it was short of widespread for a large chunk of the Northeast US. 

Heh, I realize there is no world NE of the Tristate to Philli region, but just in deference to envious eyes made to watch warm air from their cold predicament,  widespread 80s and 90s in the Northeast US is a just a wee bit of a spin. 

[weatherwiz]

Very thick overcast making it pretty dark. Kind of reminds me of those gloomy January days when its dark out at 3:30 because of the thick overcast and sun already nearing the horizon

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Very thick overcast making it pretty dark. Kind of reminds me of those gloomy January days when its dark out at 3:30 because of the thick overcast and sun already nearing the horizon

Looks like there's a secondary cold front according to WPC's most recent surface analysis. Some of this might be a response to that pressure perturbation coming thru.  But it is on the move...  looping vis it probably doesn't last the whole daylight.   Along this end of Rt 2 we're holding out with sun for the moment.

Yeah, you'll get 15 minutes before sunset hahaha. 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looks like there's a secondary cold front according to WPC's most recent surface analysis. Some of this might be a response to that pressure perturbation coming thru.  But it is on the move...  looping vis it probably doesn't last the whole daylight.   Along this end of Rt 2 we're holding out with sun for the moment.

Yeah, you'll get 15 minutes before sunset hahaha.  

Yeah looking at mesoanlysis there definitely is a second weak feature about to slide through the region. Satellite does appear hopeful that perhaps we clear some behind that passage but I am worried that a combination of very cold mlvl temps + residual mlvl moisture is going to result a continuing of building cloud over. But maybe we transform from more stratus to more cumulus like