80 Degrees to Ripping Snow: March 12th

[Warm Nose]

"Trash model" goes here ...

[Scraff]

The GFS has been spot on this entire winter! I heard it’s verification scores are off the charts like my IQ. 

[high risk]

Friendly reminder that snow accumulation does not reflect what the model thinks will stick.   It reflects the amount of QPF that the model has falling as snow.   The issue of why the QPF has over 0.50" of liquid falling at the tail end of this event is, however, a fully legit question.

[NorthArlington101]

EURO gonna be on board again. Maps in a sec

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

GFS!

What the actual fuck.

[stormtracker]

Told yall, hang on, I'm about to drive this bus!

 

 

Into a ditch.

[Paleocene]

i'm locked and loaded, zoom in 12z euro.  guaranteed to happen. especially because all of this is forecast for between about 9am and 5pm

[Eskimo Joe]

Are we lumping severe and winter into one thread? If so, Tornado Watch coming for the mountains:

 

 

[stormtracker]

Anafrontal snow with marginal temps are our specialty.  

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Anafrontal snow with marginal temps are our specialty.  

Daytime in mid March! 12-18 hours after temps in the 60-70s!

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Daytime in mid March! 12-18 hours after temps in the 60-70s!

Take pics when you're in that Howard County death band.  Snow is gonna pile up fast when your temp drops to 43. 

[Kay]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

The GFS has been spot on this entire winter! I heard it’s verification scores are off the charts like my IQ. 

Minor quibble but I would've have gone with BAC in this analogy 

I'll be in HoCo as of tomorrow evening. Should be good for an extra inch or 3 of snowmap

Edit: semi-ninjad by Randy. I'm chasing that deathband

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Daytime in mid March! 12-18 hours after temps in the 60-70s!

 

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Take pics when you're in that Howard County death band.  Snow is gonna pile up fast when your temp drops to 43. 

What I’m saying is it’s happening 

[WEATHER53]

We will need a 30 degree temp drop in 3-6 hours for this to work .

[wasnow215]

I just don't understand why people keep saying this is unreasonable. If you're looking at 10:1 maps of course it's unreasonable. But  with the temperatures and when the snow is going to fall, why would you look at those maps?- even Kuchera will be wrong.

 

Snow depth with the GFS and the 12 Z Euro shows a 1/2 to an inch of snow and maybe some lollies a tad higher. All on grass and any colder surfaces bc rates will be heavy according to the models. 

[SnowenOutThere]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

What I’m saying is it’s happening 

In fairness I said “ripping snow” not accumulating snow.