On the Rocks? March 5-6 mess

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No ice there tonight?

No

[CT Valley Snowman]

GFS was a tick warmer in CT with less icing.  I'd feel better in the Northern Hills, especially NW.  

[DomNH]

30 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Man what a tough forecast…. Computer guidance is basically 1-10” here.  

Gut says like 3-5’’ of total cement but there’s definitely an argument for a higher end wet snow event. Might get shotgun blasts with GFS or HRRR solution. 

[MarkO]

Another tough forecast for my area. I don't envy the mets.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Gut says like 3-5’’ of total cement but there’s definitely an argument for a higher end wet snow event. Might get shotgun blasts with GFS or HRRR solution. 

Yea, I said last night I could see like 4-8", but went 3-6" for now because it's safer.

[ineedsnow]

We 15Z RAP here

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No

Any here ?

[Ginx snewx]

Great let's throw another 1.5" precipitation into a ripening snowpack that has 2.5 to 5 inches of water. Then throw some crazy 60s over 40s to melt it all at once. Guaranteed to be flooding 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

We 15Z RAP here

It has actually cut back a bit... but destroys us

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any here ?

Sleet to end ?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sleet to end ?

So no zr ?

[wx2fish]

Definitely got breezy at times here in rockingham co over the last half hour. Still mild, but the leading edge is on the move 

[DomNH]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

We 15Z RAP here

Just brings the whole grid down. Some of these convection allowing mesos are nuts. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So no zr ?

Elevation might not be where the zr is. Low levels advecting cold. Once the cold pool moves over it is either sleet or snow. Just doesn't sit right. But it's probably now cast in CT. RGEM being warm is a flag although Herpes is cold so toss up. Just another rain storm here. 

[dendrite]

47.1° and partly sunny

Was not expecting a day almost on par with yesterday 

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEM finally came south in line with other guidance, but is more tempered like the NAM.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Elevation might not be where the zr is. Low levels advecting cold. Once the cold pool moves over it is either sleet or snow. Just doesn't sit right. But it's probably now cast in CT. RGEM being warm is a flag although Herpes is cold so toss up. Just another rain storm here. 

Pretty nice cold drain down the Champlain Valley… low level sub-freezing air oozing south.

BTV now 28/17 with 15mph NNW wind.

Its 34F Mansfield Summit, 40F base area and 41F MVL.

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Great let's throw another 1.5" precipitation into a ripening snowpack that has 2.5 to 5 inches of water. Then throw some crazy 60s over 40s to melt it all at once. Guaranteed to be flooding 

That’s a typical pack and winter up here. Just means mud season. The bigger problem would be a warm sectored stemwinder. 

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Definitely got breezy at times here in rockingham co over the last half hour. Still mild, but the leading edge is on the move 

Need to see dews dropping well into the 20s I think by mid-late afternoon  to feel more frozen with this one. This feels like one of those events where a ton of QPF is wasted on 33-36F rain. But we’ll see. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That’s a typical pack and winter up here. Just means mud season. The bigger problem would be a warm sectored stemwinder. 

We shall see that is a lot of winter water around here 

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Elevation might not be where the zr is. Low levels advecting cold. Once the cold pool moves over it is either sleet or snow. Just doesn't sit right. But it's probably now cast in CT. RGEM being warm is a flag although Herpes is cold so toss up. Just another rain storm here. 

Valleys won’t be cold enough . This particular set up should it even occur is elevation ice . But like Will said.. it might not be much frozen anywhere if we don’t see cooling . Having Dendy in the 50’s probably not a good sign 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

47.1° and partly sunny

Was not expecting a day almost on par with yesterday 

Yup. 47.5° with the sun poking through here.

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We shall see that is a lot of winter water around here 

I get it…it’s more anomalous for you down there. At least there’s a lot less water in the pack up here so there’s less flowing in it upstream than there otherwise would’ve been. 

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Valleys won’t be cold enough . This particular set up should it even occur is elevation ice . But like Will said.. it might not be much frozen anywhere if we don’t see cooling . Having Dendy in the 50’s probably not a good sign 

OK noted 

[UnitedWx]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

47.1° and partly sunny

Was not expecting a day almost on par with yesterday 

35 and puke worthy in Simsbury at the moment. Fenway park in April... and May

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Valleys won’t be cold enough . This particular set up should it even occur is elevation ice . But like Will said.. it might not be much frozen anywhere if we don’t see cooling . Having Dendy in the 50’s probably not a good sign 

The dew boundary is up around dryslot right now. 3k advects a GOM moderated piece of that WSWrd into SE NH/NE MA later. That motherload isn’t really modeled to drop in. I don’t think partial sun and 48° here necessarily affects it. We shall see.

[tamarack]

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Great let's throw another 1.5" precipitation into a ripening snowpack that has 2.5 to 5 inches of water. Then throw some crazy 60s over 40s to melt it all at once. Guaranteed to be flooding 

May be okay if the melt time isn't accompanied by significant rain.  I've not seen any major (3rd/4th order streams and main stem rivers) NNE watercourses get beyond minor flooding with snowmelt only.  (Of course, much of the modest snow in March 2012 was gone before the 80s arrived.)

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

The dew boundary is up around dryslot right now. 3k advects a GOM moderated piece of that WSWrd into SE NH/NE MA later. That motherload isn’t really modeled to drop in. I don’t think partial sun and 48° here necessarily affects it. We shall see.

When is that modeled to move into this area? After dark ?

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

35 and puke worthy in Simsbury at the moment. Fenway park in April... and May

One of the worst experiences in the world of sports lol....dumpy crappy old ballpark...

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When is that modeled to move into this area? After dark ?

Yeah around sunset…23-00z or so.