Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Saturday at 07:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:45 PM 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: It’s happening. Even if it does happen, I still wouldn't ever vote for Ron Paul or Rand Paul...However, RuPaul may be more entertaining!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:49 PM 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It’s gonna snow and you just gotta get your mind right son. It’s happening. I'm not opposed to it. There are some things to like about the LW pattern on the ens means. I posted about it yesterday. Op run snow maps tho.. I know, its what the kids like. (and Will) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Saturday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:54 PM 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: I'm not opposed to it. There are some things to like about the LW pattern on the ens means. I posted about it yesterday. Op run snow maps tho.. I know, its what the kids like. (and Will) 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 08:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:09 PM 12z EPS precip for the window of interest- Nothing is etched in stone ofc, but this is more useful as a forecast tool at this range than volatile op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 08:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:12 PM 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z EPS precip for the window of interest- Nothing is etched in stone ofc, but this is more useful as a forecast tool at this range than volatile op runs. It'll drift south over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:13 PM Just now, mitchnick said: It'll drift south over the coming days. Is that a weenie rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:25 PM 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Is that a weenie rule? For this year it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:13 PM 59 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It'll drift south over the coming days. 12z AI EPS for the period. The ingredients are there, we just need a specific chance or two to track in the window. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted yesterday at 12:55 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:55 AM back end snow action on the euro for march 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted yesterday at 01:19 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:19 AM 23 minutes ago, bncho said: back end snow action on the euro for march 12 Snow TV per surface temps but wouldn’t complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted yesterday at 01:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:40 AM 44 minutes ago, bncho said: back end snow action on the euro for march 12 The back end always works out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 02:17 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:17 AM I feel like we've been tracking this warmup forever. NWS has DC hitting 83F on Wednesday! While it's still technically Winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted yesterday at 02:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:41 AM 27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I feel like we've been tracking this warmup forever. NWS has DC hitting 83F on Wednesday! While it's still technically Winter! Well, I recall March 2012 was insanely warm (+9 departure at DCA for the month), DCA hit 80+ degrees four times. Only two nighttime lows at or below freezing, the rest were well above. The cherry blossoms were essentially finished blooming by St. Patrick's Day since they came out very early. I believe that was an extremely warm month for much of the eastern third of the country. (ETA: In fact, I remember seeing that some location in upper Michigan had a low temperature one day that was a few degrees warmer than the previous record HIGH for that particular date; it also of course broke a new record high). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 02:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:48 AM 7 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Well, I recall March 2012 was insanely warm (+9 departure at DCA for the month), DCA hit 80+ degrees four times. Only two nighttime lows at or below freezing, the rest were well above. The cherry blossoms were essentially finished blooming by St. Patrick's Day since they came out very early. I believe that was an extremely warm month for much of the eastern third of the country. (ETA: In fact, I remember seeing that some location in upper Michigan had a low temperature one day that was a few degrees warmer than the previous record HIGH for that particular date; it also of course broke a new record high). An interesting thing about March 2012 was actually how cold it was in the N. Hemisphere I recall almost hitting 90F that month 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted yesterday at 03:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:03 AM 10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: An interesting thing about March 2012 was actually how cold it was in the N. Hemisphere I recall almost hitting 90F that month Interesting. Looks like most of the cold was on the other side of the hemisphere, as well as that strip of colder across northern Canada and AK. I would imagine given that distribution, a huge and persistent ridge over the eastern half to 2/3 of North America and another over much of Europe/Scandinavia (though not as warm there). It's kind of reminiscent of how warm December 2015 was here (similar warm departure). I'm just grateful we got those large departures in December and March, and not a +9 in July!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted yesterday at 04:20 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:20 AM 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I feel like we've been tracking this warmup forever. NWS has DC hitting 83F on Wednesday! While it's still technically Winter! Track deez 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted yesterday at 10:26 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:26 AM 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I feel like we've been tracking this warmup forever. NWS has DC hitting 83F on Wednesday! While it's still technically Winter! I feel like you have been tracking a warm-up your entire life 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 11:37 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:37 AM WB 6Z EURO AI for next Tuesday-Wed. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted yesterday at 11:39 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:39 AM lol it’s kinda funny because they all agree on snow either on or near us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted yesterday at 11:52 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:52 AM 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO AI for next Tuesday-Wed. That tracks I'll be in Charlotte on those days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 12:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:54 PM WB 6Z AI EPS for next week: note trough is currently too far east for a nice hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted yesterday at 12:57 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:57 PM 1 hour ago, aldie 22 said: That tracks I'll be in Charlotte on those days LOL, by then you may be in the bullseye there! You can find an Irish Pub in Charlotte to toast the St. Pat's Day storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted yesterday at 01:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:49 PM WB 6Z AI EPS for next week: note trough is currently too far east for a nice hit here.Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted yesterday at 01:57 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:57 PM Ladies and gentlemen, get your affairs in order, we start tracking at dawn Thursday. 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 03:43 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:43 PM On 3/5/2026 at 11:59 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Euro seasonal going crazy for Strong El Nino later this year On 3/6/2026 at 8:50 AM, GaWx said: The Euro ENSO forecasts have a warm bias per looking at 20+ years of forecasts even as late as forecasts issued in early summer. Also, this chart is predicting ONI. RONI has now replaced ONI for official NWS monitoring: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ RONI is currently ~0.5C cooler than ONI meaning that this chart is implicitly predicting only ~+1.6 in Sept rather than +2.1. If one then does a bias correction, they’d come up with only a low +1s RONI for Sept (moderate as of then) although it’s still rising then on the chart implying higher later. @Stormchaserchuck1 More on the Euro warm bias for predicting ENSO ONI: Euro JAS ONI March prog vs actual 2026: ~+1.5/? 2025: +0.26/-0.28 2024: -0.39/-0.07 2023: +1.11/+1.37 2022: +0.04/-0.87 2021: +0.10/-0.45 2020: +0.09/-0.53 2019: +0.94/+0.19 2018: +0.5/+0.3 2017: +1.1/-0.1 2016: -0.4/-0.5 2015: +1.8/+1.9 2014: +1.3/+0.1 2013: +0.4/-0.3 JJA: 2012: +0.6/+0.3 2011: -0.5/-0.6 2010: -0.3/-1.1 2009: +0.4/+0.5 2008: -0.6/-0.4 MJJ: 2007: -0.2/-0.5 2006: +0.3/0 JJA: 2005: +0.4/-0.1 Summary of March 2005-25 Euro ONI progs: -2025’s +1.5 prog is 2nd warmest to 2015’s +1.8, which verified very closely -14 too warm with 6 being 0.7+ too warm -5 within 0.2 (2 of those El Niño) -only 2 too cold, though 1 was El Niño, with both being 0.3 too cold and recent (2023 and 2024) -Avg miss: +8/21 = +0.4 with largest +1.2 (twice) -Avg miss for Nino alone: only +0.2 with misses being -0.3, +0.2, -0.1, +1.2, -0.1, +0.3 -Keep in mind that these progs are for ONI, not RONI 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted yesterday at 04:00 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:00 PM First day on this ol’ bullshit time. Gonna be a struggle later this week when the GFS and EURO smokes us next week. Sigh. Models at 11:30 and 1:30 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted yesterday at 04:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:15 PM 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Ladies and gentlemen, get your affairs in order, we start tracking at dawn Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted yesterday at 04:37 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:37 PM 14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I feel like we've been tracking this warmup forever. NWS has DC hitting 83F on Wednesday! While it's still technically Winter! Promises, promises. We have had multiple forecasts of a warm-up that have not happened this winter, including the 70's-80's with sunshine last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 04:51 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:51 PM Yuck at the 12z CMC at the end of its run... do not want 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted yesterday at 04:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:54 PM 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Yuck at the 12z CMC at the end of its run... do not want Not you too! Bring on one more chance. It ain’t gonna snow for 10 months after that window. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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