2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[WxUSAF]

PG county schools closed due to widespread power outages 

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

PG county schools closed due to widespread power outages 

Forgot that MD is normal and has school today. By state law, VA schools are all out today.  Fortuitously, given the lack of sleep many got last night.

1.46”.  A lot of leaf debris but nothing significant.

[yoda]

So today's final severe weather threat should be more SW of DC metro?

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, yoda said:

So today's final severe weather threat should be more SW of DC metro?

That appears to be so. We really wasted a good setup again.

[yoda]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

That appears to be so. We really wasted a good setup again.

Though morning AFD from LWX suggests otherwise 

DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot temperatures, high humidity, and severe
thunderstorm chances again today into Saturday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, are
anticipated again this afternoon/evening. Timing is a bit uncertain
given the subtle waves aloft, but increasing low-level convergence
paired with another upper impulse may very well result in another
round or two of storms with a damaging wind risk. The latest
guidance has nudged the threat a bit further north due to slower
progression of the cold front, encompassing areas as far north as I-
70 or the Mason-Dixon line . While storms can develop over the
region and congeal before moving southeast, areas in Ohio,
Pennsylvania, and West Virginia will need to be monitored to see if
anything grows upscale in those areas in linear segments and
dives southeast.

Highs today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew
points in the lower to middle 70s resulting in heat indices in the
upper 90s to lower 100s. This will be just shy of heat headline
criteria (except in Charlottesville and surrounding Albemarle/Nelson
Counties). The potential for early day clouds to offset heating
precludes enough confidence to issue any further heat headlines at
this time, though it will be unusually hot and humid for early
September regardless.

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, CAPE said:

Warned for one inch hail and winds to 80 mph.

All south of me. Recorded a quarter inch of rain on the northern edge- mostly just an area of moderate rain with thunder in the distance. I'll take it.

1.5" for the week

[adelphi_sky]

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

PG county schools closed due to widespread power outages 

Yeah. I drove my kid all the way to school to see an empty parking lot. I was confused. I checked the clock twice. Asked my son did he have school today. lol. Took me about five minutes to check my email and saw the message. Weird that the whole county is out. Most of Adelphi/College Park had electricity. Even my son's school. Oh well. Perfect timing. 4 day weekend for them. 

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

All south of me. Recorded a quarter inch of rain on the northern edge- mostly just an area of moderate rain with thunder in the distance. I'll take it.

1.5" for the week

Ferry Cove mesonet site gusted to 53 mph early this morning. Impressive.

[Kmlwx]

One thing in the weenie category is that all the days we've been in slight risks - the best has continually (until last night) been north of our area. Maybe now with the threat by SPC to the SW we will get an areawide shellacking. 

[Herb@MAWS]

A great light show last night but only 0.05” to show for it imby/Columbia. 

[Herb@MAWS]

The next batch of rain coming SE-ward from Southern Michigan and northern Ohio appears to have a slightly better angle of approach toward Central Maryland than the past 2 days. Of course the day is young and I could see it just as easily missing just to the south of Central Maryland. 

[mappy]

2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Forgot that MD is normal and has school today. By state law, VA schools are all out today.  Fortuitously, given the lack of sleep many got last night.

1.46”.  A lot of leaf debris but nothing significant.

Yeah, it’s dumb lol. Friends kids in PA are out today too 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

Yeah, it’s dumb lol. Friends kids in PA are out today too 

 

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

PG county schools closed due to widespread power outages 

Long loss of power means refrigerators and food may not be kept cold. Not every school has UPS/back up generators. It's cautionary to mitigate food borne illness. 

[yoda]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1052 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No wholesale changes to the forecast this morning. Monitoring
convection upstream over Ohio (again) as that is on pace to
affect the region with a damaging/severe wind threat later this
afternoon into this evening.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1052 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No wholesale changes to the forecast this morning. Monitoring
convection upstream over Ohio (again) as that is on pace to
affect the region with a damaging/severe wind threat later this
afternoon into this evening.

12z mesos want to kill it

[csnavywx]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z mesos want to kill it

Day in and day out. Having a really hard time with holding onto elevated convection in setups like this. Decent instability gradient for them to ride down and shear improves this afternoon, so there's at least some chance this stuff makes it.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Storm woke me up, sounded like the end of the world out there.  Lots of debris hitting my roof.  Saw a few big trees down in DC on 14th street on the way to work.

[midatlanticweather]

The stuff in PA does look like it could target the area again. Not sure it will be severe. 

 

[mappy]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Long loss of power means refrigerators and food may not be kept cold. Not every school has UPS/back up generators. It's cautionary to mitigate food borne illness. 

Sorry, I wasn’t talking about why PG closed, it makes sense that they did. I said it’s dumb that VA and PA kids are out today but MD kids are not, bc of the holiday weekend 

[bncho]

Power has been out for 13 hours here. Storm was absolutely crazy for me. Was a crazy cool lightning storm that boomed!

for a moment on video it looked like the afternoon bc of the ltn lol

 

[yoda]

Radarscope had rotation in the Garrett County cell which just got svr warned

[Eskimo Joe]

That Garrett cell has legs. Solid up tick in CG and it's got that look like it's a little vort or something pushing it along.

[aldie 22]

I sort of like the trajectory of that thing more nickles and dimes possibly 

[yoda]

Sounds like severe thunderstorm watch coming soon for areas west of i95 corridor per MCD 

 

[yoda]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2232.html

Mesoscale Discussion 2232
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

   Areas affected...southeast Ohio...much of West Virginia...western
   Maryland and northern and western Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 041731Z - 041930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce areas of damaging gusts and
   marginally severe hail through the afternoon from southeast Ohio
   into Virginia.

   DISCUSSION...Cells have intensified from central into southeast OH,
   south of the synoptic wind shift and within the instability axis.
   Precipitable water is high, with moderate instability developing.
   Midlevel northwesterlies of 30-40 kt are also supporting cellular
   and mixed storm modes including small bows. Given the destabilizing
   air mass downstream of the existing storms, gradual upscale growth
   may occur as outflow production/storm coverage increases.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   38978248 39418172 39698096 39767982 39577793 39077719
               38627744 37967822 37507916 37218080 37368163 37828223
               38138248 38978248 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN