WxUSAF Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 PG county schools closed due to widespread power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: PG county schools closed due to widespread power outages Forgot that MD is normal and has school today. By state law, VA schools are all out today. Fortuitously, given the lack of sleep many got last night. 1.46”. A lot of leaf debris but nothing significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 So today's final severe weather threat should be more SW of DC metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Just now, yoda said: So today's final severe weather threat should be more SW of DC metro? That appears to be so. We really wasted a good setup again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: That appears to be so. We really wasted a good setup again. Though morning AFD from LWX suggests otherwise DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot temperatures, high humidity, and severe thunderstorm chances again today into Saturday. Additional showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, are anticipated again this afternoon/evening. Timing is a bit uncertain given the subtle waves aloft, but increasing low-level convergence paired with another upper impulse may very well result in another round or two of storms with a damaging wind risk. The latest guidance has nudged the threat a bit further north due to slower progression of the cold front, encompassing areas as far north as I- 70 or the Mason-Dixon line . While storms can develop over the region and congeal before moving southeast, areas in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia will need to be monitored to see if anything grows upscale in those areas in linear segments and dives southeast. Highs today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the lower to middle 70s resulting in heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. This will be just shy of heat headline criteria (except in Charlottesville and surrounding Albemarle/Nelson Counties). The potential for early day clouds to offset heating precludes enough confidence to issue any further heat headlines at this time, though it will be unusually hot and humid for early September regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 7 hours ago, CAPE said: Warned for one inch hail and winds to 80 mph. All south of me. Recorded a quarter inch of rain on the northern edge- mostly just an area of moderate rain with thunder in the distance. I'll take it. 1.5" for the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: PG county schools closed due to widespread power outages Yeah. I drove my kid all the way to school to see an empty parking lot. I was confused. I checked the clock twice. Asked my son did he have school today. lol. Took me about five minutes to check my email and saw the message. Weird that the whole county is out. Most of Adelphi/College Park had electricity. Even my son's school. Oh well. Perfect timing. 4 day weekend for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: All south of me. Recorded a quarter inch of rain on the northern edge- mostly just an area of moderate rain with thunder in the distance. I'll take it. 1.5" for the week Ferry Cove mesonet site gusted to 53 mph early this morning. Impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 4 Author Share Posted September 4 One thing in the weenie category is that all the days we've been in slight risks - the best has continually (until last night) been north of our area. Maybe now with the threat by SPC to the SW we will get an areawide shellacking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 A great light show last night but only 0.05” to show for it imby/Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 The next batch of rain coming SE-ward from Southern Michigan and northern Ohio appears to have a slightly better angle of approach toward Central Maryland than the past 2 days. Of course the day is young and I could see it just as easily missing just to the south of Central Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 2 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Forgot that MD is normal and has school today. By state law, VA schools are all out today. Fortuitously, given the lack of sleep many got last night. 1.46”. A lot of leaf debris but nothing significant. Yeah, it’s dumb lol. Friends kids in PA are out today too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 hour ago, mappy said: Yeah, it’s dumb lol. Friends kids in PA are out today too 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: PG county schools closed due to widespread power outages Long loss of power means refrigerators and food may not be kept cold. Not every school has UPS/back up generators. It's cautionary to mitigate food borne illness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1052 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No wholesale changes to the forecast this morning. Monitoring convection upstream over Ohio (again) as that is on pace to affect the region with a damaging/severe wind threat later this afternoon into this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1052 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No wholesale changes to the forecast this morning. Monitoring convection upstream over Ohio (again) as that is on pace to affect the region with a damaging/severe wind threat later this afternoon into this evening. 12z mesos want to kill it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z mesos want to kill it Day in and day out. Having a really hard time with holding onto elevated convection in setups like this. Decent instability gradient for them to ride down and shear improves this afternoon, so there's at least some chance this stuff makes it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Storm woke me up, sounded like the end of the world out there. Lots of debris hitting my roof. Saw a few big trees down in DC on 14th street on the way to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 The stuff in PA does look like it could target the area again. Not sure it will be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Long loss of power means refrigerators and food may not be kept cold. Not every school has UPS/back up generators. It's cautionary to mitigate food borne illness. Sorry, I wasn’t talking about why PG closed, it makes sense that they did. I said it’s dumb that VA and PA kids are out today but MD kids are not, bc of the holiday weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Power has been out for 13 hours here. Storm was absolutely crazy for me. Was a crazy cool lightning storm that boomed! for a moment on video it looked like the afternoon bc of the ltn lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Radarscope had rotation in the Garrett County cell which just got svr warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 That Garrett cell has legs. Solid up tick in CG and it's got that look like it's a little vort or something pushing it along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 I sort of like the trajectory of that thing more nickles and dimes possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Sounds like severe thunderstorm watch coming soon for areas west of i95 corridor per MCD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2232.html Mesoscale Discussion 2232 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026 Areas affected...southeast Ohio...much of West Virginia...western Maryland and northern and western Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041731Z - 041930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce areas of damaging gusts and marginally severe hail through the afternoon from southeast Ohio into Virginia. DISCUSSION...Cells have intensified from central into southeast OH, south of the synoptic wind shift and within the instability axis. Precipitable water is high, with moderate instability developing. Midlevel northwesterlies of 30-40 kt are also supporting cellular and mixed storm modes including small bows. Given the destabilizing air mass downstream of the existing storms, gradual upscale growth may occur as outflow production/storm coverage increases. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38978248 39418172 39698096 39767982 39577793 39077719 38627744 37967822 37507916 37218080 37368163 37828223 38138248 38978248 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until 9pm URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 653 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Eastern Kentucky Western Maryland Southeast Ohio Virginia West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Relatively widespread clusters of storms will continue to become increasingly common this afternoon, with the potential for storms to organize over time as they progress generally southeastward. Wind damage will be the most common hazard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 4 Author Share Posted September 4 Unless more north development occurs - most of us in Maryland are going to get missed. The bowing line segment now W of Romney is on track to go through NoVA - perhaps as far south as like Warrenton/Manassas. Even Loudoun/Fairfax may miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 4 Author Share Posted September 4 Still a good bit of MLCIN over the DC/Baltimore area on mesoanalysis. DCAPE is not good NE of the Potomac essentially but ramps up quickly S/SW of there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 48 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Unless more north development occurs - most of us in Maryland are going to get missed. The bowing line segment now W of Romney is on track to go through NoVA - perhaps as far south as like Warrenton/Manassas. Even Loudoun/Fairfax may miss out. Well said. I agree with layering the Maryland counties adjacent to the Potomac River on the watch in case upscale growth occurs, but it's going to be tough. Our only chance seems to be from those storm just NW of Martinsburg getting their act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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