2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[WxUSAF]

No D3 enhanced for us east of Garrett county. Could be they want the front timing to get a little more precise?

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

No D3 enhanced for us east of Garrett county. Could be they want the front timing to get a little more precise?

The only thing worse than a D2 MOD risk is a D3 ENH.

[ThePhotoGuy]

This was the strongest and most damaging storm that I have ever witnessed in my area in Pasadena. At least 10 times worse than the derecho. Over 2 dozen trees knocked down on homes and cars in my neighborhood and another community. I saw at least 5 homes marked unsafe for entry by county inspections. I haven't ventured further down Fort Smallwood where there is even more destruction. 

[Kmlwx]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

No D3 enhanced for us east of Garrett county. Could be they want the front timing to get a little more precise?

Could end up being too far east for D3 and too far west for D4 lol. 

[yoda]

5 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Could end up being too far east for D3 and too far west for D4 lol. 

Day 2 ENH up

[Kmlwx]

Latest CSU MLP guidance 

[Kmlwx]

https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ

Not posting individual maps since there are many toggles from the NCAR page - but NCAR highlighted areas would argue for continuing to shift the ENH eastward if it is correct. 

[high risk]

17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ

Not posting individual maps since there are many toggles from the NCAR page - but NCAR highlighted areas would argue for continuing to shift the ENH eastward if it is correct. 

There has been a clear trend in the guidance for more favorable timing for our area. 

[Kmlwx]

CIPS is not super-honking (the threat is there - it's just more muted). 

If nothing else - I am hoping for an event where I am working from home for a change (or at least in the area...) 

That said - a confirmed TOR passed near me up in PA Saturday evening (the Houtzdale/Whiteside, PA one confirmed by CTP). Was a few miles away. 

[JakkelWx]

On 7/18/2026 at 5:04 PM, vortex95 said:

Probably +CGs and the thunder was enhanced by the nocturnal inversion!

it happened again the same evening. woo storms!

[wxmeddler]

13 hours ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

This was the strongest and most damaging storm that I have ever witnessed in my area in Pasadena. At least 10 times worse than the derecho. Over 2 dozen trees knocked down on homes and cars in my neighborhood and another community. I saw at least 5 homes marked unsafe for entry by county inspections. I haven't ventured further down Fort Smallwood where there is even more destruction. 

That looks like 65 mph damage, there were pockets of 80 in there from TDWR. Locally more damaging than the '12 derecho. I think the derecho only had 50-65 in the Pasadena / Rivera Beach area.

[WxUSAF]

After 0z and 6z, I thought maybe the NAM broke the 2026 streak of looking like shit before our storm days. Then 12z ran. The streak lives!

[batmanbrad]

Quote

 

11 hours ago, yoda said:

Day 2 ENH up

and in the 1:30PM update the ENH was expanded eastward, now covers all or nearly all of our area.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, batmanbrad said:

and in the 1:30PM update the ENH was expanded eastward, now covers all or nearly all of our area.

 

 

[yoda]

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
   from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.
   All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
   should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the
   nighttime hours.

   ...Synopsis...
   High amplitude ridging will build across the western US with
   continued progressive troughing across the east on Tuesday. Multiple
   short-wave impulses will rotate through the eastern US trough, with
   a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow traversing the Midwest into
   the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will shift south and
   east through the period, with a surface low across southern
   Ontario/Quebec. A pre-frontal surface trough will also be in place
   across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Widely
   scattered thunderstorm activity is expected through the period.

   ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
   Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase along the pre-frontal
   trough from western/central New York into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
   late Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Though there may be
   potential for early morning cloud cover, it does appear that
   sufficient heating/moistening will occur for at least moderate
   instability to develop across the region through the afternoon.
   Mid-level flow will increase through the day along with forcing for
   ascent. It appears widely scattered thunderstorm activity with
   several clusters/embedded supercells will be ongoing by the
   afternoon. Highest confidence in transient embedded supercell modes
   would be closer to the surface low and near the front across western
   NY into eastern PA. Here, there may be potential for both damaging
   wind, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Guidance
   suggests the best signal for damaging wind will be across the
   Mid-Atlantic, where several damaging clusters could occur. As such,
   the Enhanced was expanded eastward into portions of the
   Mid-Atlantic. 

   ...Ohio Valley...
   Evolution of overnight convection will play a large role in
   development/maintenance of thunderstorm activity across the Ohio
   Valley Tuesday. It appears that remnant convection will be ongoing
   at the start of the period near/just ahead of the surface front
   across northern Kentucky/southern Indiana/Ohio. This will likely
   re-intensify and continue to expand south and east during the
   morning as daytime heating begins. Strong daytime heating and moist
   profiles should support moderate to strong instability developing
   though the afternoon. Storm mode appears to be generally linear,
   with the greatest threat being for damaging wind given more linear
   forcing/initially boundary parallel shear along residual southward
   moving outflow. As such, the primary hazard will be damaging wind. 

   Additional thunderstorm development is likely along and ahead of the
   front through the afternoon with increasing forcing for ascent with
   approaching shortwaves. Strong deep layer shear may become more
   boundary perpendicular supporting a supercell or two as the front
   sags south, with potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado.
   Confidence in this scenario is on the lower end and the primary
   hazard is expected to be a secondary wave of damaging wind
   potential. Should storms be able to cluster and establish a more
   organized cold pool, potential for some corridor of significant wind
   may be possible. Overall, no significant wind areas were included
   given low confidence in exact morning storm evolution and concerns
   over generally poor lapse rates.

   ..Thornton.. 07/20/2026

[Eskimo Joe]

12z NAM twins look like complete garbage. Not even MRGL risk worthy. Ooof.

[aldie 22]

NAM Hrrr and gfs pretty uninspiring for back here

[Kmlwx]

Nothing new....we probably will really have no idea how it will play out locally until 10am tomorrow or later  

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Nothing new....we probably will really have no idea how it will play out locally until 10am tomorrow or later  

D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts. 

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts. 

Well I also think exactly what we all thought would happen with the new outlooks this year, has happened. 

It truly is that with forecasting advances, 45%+ is just not going to be super uncommon anymore. Everything has probably shifted upwards a tier. So 60% may be the new 45%. I think we will continue to see a higher incidence of 45% wind days. It does *not* mean that there will be more outbreak days. 

We have to sort of re-train our brains at least on the wind side of the outlooks. We used to get super amped for a 45% wind day....that will be like a 30% in the past. Sure - it's better than 15% but it's not like a derecho is coming through. 

If 2012 evolved in this new outlook scheme - as SPC upgraded that night with the line approaching - we probably would have gotten a 90% prob...

[Kmlwx]

Double post but deal with it  

We all need to just consider the outlook meanings as a whole. a severe report within 25 miles of a point can be VERY high confidence especially in highly populated areas where there are now an abundance of spotters and average joes sending reports in. 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Well I also think exactly what we all thought would happen with the new outlooks this year, has happened. 

It truly is that with forecasting advances, 45%+ is just not going to be super uncommon anymore. Everything has probably shifted upwards a tier. So 60% may be the new 45%. I think we will continue to see a higher incidence of 45% wind days. It does *not* mean that there will be more outbreak days. 

We have to sort of re-train our brains at least on the wind side of the outlooks. We used to get super amped for a 45% wind day....that will be like a 30% in the past. Sure - it's better than 15% but it's not like a derecho is coming through. 

If 2012 evolved in this new outlook scheme - as SPC upgraded that night with the line approaching - we probably would have gotten a 90% prob...

Agreed. Unfortunately, my confidence in SPC has really been shaken since they've changed these outlooks. 

[Kmlwx]

Afternoon LWX discussion mentions "significant severe weather episode" and "scattered significant wind damage reports" 

[SolidIcewx]

Unless the “storm cluster” is coming right at me and within 10 miles im not gonna get my hopes up. I understand the frustration when it comes to severe weather in this area since moving here last year 

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

Unless the “storm cluster” is coming right at me and within 10 miles im not gonna get my hopes up. I understand the frustration when it comes to severe weather in this area since moving here last year 

We don't do widespread severe around here. In my 47 years of life in this area I've seen widespread severe once or twice. It's normally very localized like what happened in Pasadena a couple days ago. Even the day La Plata was hit with the EF 5 was pretty lame. That Southern MD super cell was the only game in town that day. I remember thinking it was a bust until I heard about the GOAT tornado. The derechio was the the most widespread severe I've seen. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Afternoon LWX discussion mentions "significant severe weather episode" and "scattered significant wind damage reports" 

18z HRRR largely clouds over the warm sector tomorrow. Hard to see that happening.

[Kmlwx]

39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18z HRRR largely clouds over the warm sector tomorrow. Hard to see that happening.

Then again...clouds are one of our most common failure modes. I do think someone will get walloped tomorrow. But I might have been inclined to keep it at 30% with no CIG hatching. 

The CSU MLP guidance has not painted any 45% contour at all on today's runs. That said, the 30% on that guidance *is* centered over the DC region. 

[vortex95]

On 7/19/2026 at 9:23 AM, wxmeddler said:

Too much moisture in the mixed phase regions for large hail production, the Wet Bulb 0C is up at 4km. Though both Frederick area and BWI impressively reported small hail despite that. The thermodynamics more represents a deep tropical look than anything else. Explains the prolific lightning production.

The bulk shear above 30 kts meant we had supercells right at the start, like near Frederick. Once the wet downbursts started though, the lack of low level shear and curvature meant that any low level mesocyclone was squashed out early. To your point; The lack of any EML or capping also meant that those boundaries went and upscaled, “polluting” the environment. 

One thing w/ the WBZ, if you can get a stout supercell w/ intense mid-level meso, the WBZ means little b/c hailstones get so large and fall so fast, little melting occurs upon their final descent.  Also, such large, cold ice masses actually can continue to grow upon their final descent since drops are freezing upon contact of the mass.

The best is when directional shear is huge.  It really strings out of hodograph and increases the residence time in the HGZ.  You get more "twisty" updraft spirals.  It's one reason why hail is so common in the Front Range, lee troughing promotes backed low-level winds and you have W or NW flow at 500, so at times literally 180 deg turning sfc-500!  Also, don't need very strong winds.  You can have SE winds at 20 kt at the sfc, and 20 kt out o the NW at 500,, that equates to 40 kt deep layer shear, and you have enough for supercells despite winds aloft not standing out.

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Well I also think exactly what we all thought would happen with the new outlooks this year, has happened. 

It truly is that with forecasting advances, 45%+ is just not going to be super uncommon anymore. Everything has probably shifted upwards a tier. So 60% may be the new 45%. I think we will continue to see a higher incidence of 45% wind days. It does *not* mean that there will be more outbreak days. 

We have to sort of re-train our brains at least on the wind side of the outlooks. We used to get super amped for a 45% wind day....that will be like a 30% in the past. Sure - it's better than 15% but it's not like a derecho is coming through. 

If 2012 evolved in this new outlook scheme - as SPC upgraded that night with the line approaching - we probably would have gotten a 90% prob...

I noticed that this year.  45% for wind is being issued more often E of the Mississippi.  It can be misleading, esp. when doing stats over time for trends.  Our standards are practices change, and the fcst science advances.

It reminds me of when MRGL and ENH was added.  You get more of a "bulls-eye effect" now when you have a sig svr wx outbreak fcst, but it does not mean things are more amp'ed or intense for sensible wx, just we can just be more precise w/ outlooks given better modelling and knowledge.

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

We don't do widespread severe around here. In my 47 years of life in this area I've seen widespread severe once or twice. It's normally very localized like what happened in Pasadena a couple days ago. Even the day La Plata was hit with the EF 5 was pretty lame. That Southern MD super cell was the only game in town that day. I remember thinking it was a bust until I heard about the GOAT tornado. The derechio was the the most widespread severe I've seen. 

Or the Ivan tor day in Sep 2004?  What, like 40 tors in VA alone, and many clustered right up to the MD/VA border just W of DC!  I think that day is the only SPC MDT ever issued for a TC tor event.

There were so many tors in VA that day, that if you look at a map for the CONUS showing which month tors are most common for each state, VA says "September" -- all b/c of that Ivan tor day!  It shows how a single outlier event can skew climo big time.