2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[WxUSAF]

No D3 enhanced for us east of Garrett county. Could be they want the front timing to get a little more precise?

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

No D3 enhanced for us east of Garrett county. Could be they want the front timing to get a little more precise?

The only thing worse than a D2 MOD risk is a D3 ENH.

[ThePhotoGuy]

This was the strongest and most damaging storm that I have ever witnessed in my area in Pasadena. At least 10 times worse than the derecho. Over 2 dozen trees knocked down on homes and cars in my neighborhood and another community. I saw at least 5 homes marked unsafe for entry by county inspections. I haven't ventured further down Fort Smallwood where there is even more destruction. 

[Kmlwx]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

No D3 enhanced for us east of Garrett county. Could be they want the front timing to get a little more precise?

Could end up being too far east for D3 and too far west for D4 lol. 

[yoda]

5 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Could end up being too far east for D3 and too far west for D4 lol. 

Day 2 ENH up

[Kmlwx]

Latest CSU MLP guidance 

[Kmlwx]

https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ

Not posting individual maps since there are many toggles from the NCAR page - but NCAR highlighted areas would argue for continuing to shift the ENH eastward if it is correct. 

[high risk]

17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ

Not posting individual maps since there are many toggles from the NCAR page - but NCAR highlighted areas would argue for continuing to shift the ENH eastward if it is correct. 

There has been a clear trend in the guidance for more favorable timing for our area. 

[Kmlwx]

CIPS is not super-honking (the threat is there - it's just more muted). 

If nothing else - I am hoping for an event where I am working from home for a change (or at least in the area...) 

That said - a confirmed TOR passed near me up in PA Saturday evening (the Houtzdale/Whiteside, PA one confirmed by CTP). Was a few miles away. 

[JakkelWx]

On 7/18/2026 at 5:04 PM, vortex95 said:

Probably +CGs and the thunder was enhanced by the nocturnal inversion!

it happened again the same evening. woo storms!

[wxmeddler]

13 hours ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

This was the strongest and most damaging storm that I have ever witnessed in my area in Pasadena. At least 10 times worse than the derecho. Over 2 dozen trees knocked down on homes and cars in my neighborhood and another community. I saw at least 5 homes marked unsafe for entry by county inspections. I haven't ventured further down Fort Smallwood where there is even more destruction. 

That looks like 65 mph damage, there were pockets of 80 in there from TDWR. Locally more damaging than the '12 derecho. I think the derecho only had 50-65 in the Pasadena / Rivera Beach area.

[WxUSAF]

After 0z and 6z, I thought maybe the NAM broke the 2026 streak of looking like shit before our storm days. Then 12z ran. The streak lives!