AmericanWxFreak Posted Thursday at 11:43 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:43 AM So can we start talking about today’s weather now? lol . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Thursday at 11:51 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:51 AM 7 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: So can we start talking about today’s weather now? lol . It’s overcast now, overcast mornings are the kiss of death for severe threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Thursday at 11:56 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:56 AM BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 755 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Garrett County in western Maryland... Northwestern Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... Central Grant County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 830 AM EDT. * At 755 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Bayard to 6 miles southeast of Hendricks to near Elkins, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Streby, Seneca Rocks, Onego, Hopeville, Beechwood, Riverton, and Wilsonia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Thursday at 12:11 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:11 PM BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 806 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Allegany County in western Maryland... Northwestern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Northeastern Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... Grant County in eastern West Virginia... South central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Western Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 830 AM EDT. * At 806 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Keyser to 6 miles east of Davis to 8 miles south of Hendricks, moving east at 65 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Keyser, Moorefield, Petersburg, Romney, Rough Run, Upper Tract, Burlington, Russelldale, Landes, Arthur, Brushy Run, New Creek, Seymourville, Lahmansville, Masonville, Cabins, Dorcas, Fisher, Medley, and Kline Gap. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Thursday at 12:12 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:12 PM BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 809 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Northwestern Augusta County in western Virginia... Highland County in western Virginia... Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 845 AM EDT. * At 809 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 15 miles west of Upper Tract to 9 miles east of Richwood, moving east at 65 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Franklin, Monterey, Brandywine, Upper Tract, Doe Hill, Head Waters, Riverton, Deer Run, Liberty, Circleville, Ruddle, Williamsville, Oak Flat, Vanderpool, Sirons Mill, Hightown, Clover Creek, Cherry Grove, Mill Gap, and New Hampden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Thursday at 12:13 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 12:13 PM Pretty robust stuff for the time of day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Thursday at 12:16 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:16 PM BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 814 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... Western Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... East central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Central Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 900 AM EDT. * At 813 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Romney to 12 miles north of Moorefield to near Petersburg, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Romney, Wardensville, Springfield, Capon Bridge, Green Spring, Bean Settlement, Yellow Spring, Shanks, High View, Bloomery, Perry, Points, Lost City, Lost River, Delray, Cross Junction, Baker, Kirby, Gore, and Wapocomo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted Thursday at 12:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:22 PM 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Pretty robust stuff for the time of day. Surprised myself. We will see if it holds together. At least shear is higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted Thursday at 12:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:38 PM Nothing severe here with that line, but some booming thunder with lightning and pouring rain. Winds gusting to 30. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Thursday at 12:42 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 12:42 PM This likely will reduce/preclude any significant threat later except for areas that see more sun and do not get stabilized early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Thursday at 12:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:52 PM 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: This likely will reduce/preclude any significant threat later except for areas that see more sun and do not get stabilized early. Looks like elevated convection at best. 12 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Nothing severe here with that line, but some booming thunder with lightning and pouring rain. Winds gusting to 30. Yup. We at least need the rain. Would be surprised if we actually get into the mid 90s like previously forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Thursday at 01:35 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:35 PM 51 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: This likely will reduce/preclude any significant threat later except for areas that see more sun and do not get stabilized early. There is some hint of destabilization later today in guidance, and it wouldn't take much with these wind fields, so I don't think we're totally dead. That said, the models have a lousy handle on the ongoing convection, so the idea that we may be too stable is valid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Thursday at 02:05 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:05 PM 30 minutes ago, high risk said: There is some hint of destabilization later today in guidance, and it wouldn't take much with these wind fields, so I don't think we're totally dead. That said, the models have a lousy handle on the ongoing convection, so the idea that we may be too stable is valid. Sun is coming out quickly here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Thursday at 02:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:21 PM 10 hours ago, vortex95 said: This happens *every* time new technology becomes available. It is sold as the best thing since sliced bread w/ lofty claims. I recall in the 80s it was said "in 10-15 year advancement in computer modelling will make human forecasting obsolete!' Right, how did that work out? In fairness, computer modelling advancement has removed a lot of manual work a human used to do, but this is a *good* thing actually. Why?, b/c the shear volume of wx data now is enormous and keeps increasing. We need faster computers and AI to help sort and manage it all (do the grunt heavy lifting) so the human forecast can provide the insight/wisdom/understanding -- which AI does not have -- to give concise and clear messages to all. That's one reason why IDSS is so big in the NWS. Forecasts have become very good, but the real challenge is *communicating* it all effectively in this information overload and social media world. So I would not worry about AI "taking over," so to speak, anytime soon. AI will not remove the forecasters. I can't even get a Comcast AI bot to schedule a service appointment, there's no way an AI person will replace a forecaster at a WFO when I need help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Thursday at 02:22 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 02:22 PM Weenie comment - but I know we've had some events where early showers/precip gave us some REALLY soupy air and if clearing happens it could intensify fuel for later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Thursday at 02:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:23 PM Just now, Kmlwx said: Weenie comment - but I know we've had some events where early showers/precip gave us some REALLY soupy air and if clearing happens it could intensify fuel for later. June 13, 2013 comes to mind. Granted that was a Day 2 MOD, but the morning convection blew through and dropped a surface boundary that fire up the Leesburg to Rockville to College Park tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Thursday at 03:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:01 PM 39 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Weenie comment - but I know we've had some events where early showers/precip gave us some REALLY soupy air and if clearing happens it could intensify fuel for later. Models don’t show anything later but guess we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Thursday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:15 PM Had some thunder earlier. Sun trying to come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Thursday at 03:37 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 03:37 PM 35 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Models don’t show anything later but guess we will see I don't expect anything - more just saying under the right conditions it could lay a boundary down or moisten us better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted Thursday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:01 PM Sunny and soupy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted yesterday at 02:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:14 AM 11 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: AI will not remove the forecasters. I can't even get a Comcast AI bot to schedule a service appointment, there's no way an AI person will replace a forecaster at a WFO when I need help. Yes, we can see the shortcomings in AI in simple daily tasks , so how can we possibly expect it to handle complex problems/issues? There will be a societal/business self-realization soon enough once the hype and novelty of AI wears off. We will eventually figure out what works well and what does not for AI, and I think that will benefit society overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 10:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:38 AM Looks like Monday maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 16 hours ago, yoda said: Looks like Monday maybe? 12z and 18z NAM looked decent but the 00z NAM is dry and boring as burnt toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Day 3 morning SPC OTLK for Monday... ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A moist airmass will move into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic on Monday ahead of an eastward moving cold front. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak which will limit overall instability, but moderate shear and sufficient instability, combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support some damaging wind threat Monday afternoon/evening. In addition, a smaller area of greater low-level shear may exist closer to the surface low across northern Virginia and vicinity, which could have a localized region of greater tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago SLGT risk up for Monday on afternoon Day 3 @high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe ...Mid-Atlantic... Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Monday morning across the lower Great Lakes/upper OH Valley region. Ahead of that convection, a southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to migrate through the Mid-Atlantic, enhancing the poleward transport of an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer. Increasing height falls/forcing for ascent coupled with convergence near and ahead of the surface low, cold front, and any existing outflow boundaries are expected to foster an increase in storm coverage and intensity by afternoon. Strengthening mid-level flow aloft will combine with backed, near-ground winds ahead of the surface low to enhance vertical shear across the DelMarVa region, supporting the potential for supercell storm modes capable of all severe-weather hazards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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