AmericanWxFreak Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago So can we start talking about today’s weather now? lol . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 7 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: So can we start talking about today’s weather now? lol . It’s overcast now, overcast mornings are the kiss of death for severe threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 755 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Garrett County in western Maryland... Northwestern Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... Central Grant County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 830 AM EDT. * At 755 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Bayard to 6 miles southeast of Hendricks to near Elkins, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Streby, Seneca Rocks, Onego, Hopeville, Beechwood, Riverton, and Wilsonia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 806 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Allegany County in western Maryland... Northwestern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Northeastern Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... Grant County in eastern West Virginia... South central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Western Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 830 AM EDT. * At 806 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Keyser to 6 miles east of Davis to 8 miles south of Hendricks, moving east at 65 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Keyser, Moorefield, Petersburg, Romney, Rough Run, Upper Tract, Burlington, Russelldale, Landes, Arthur, Brushy Run, New Creek, Seymourville, Lahmansville, Masonville, Cabins, Dorcas, Fisher, Medley, and Kline Gap. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 809 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Northwestern Augusta County in western Virginia... Highland County in western Virginia... Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 845 AM EDT. * At 809 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 15 miles west of Upper Tract to 9 miles east of Richwood, moving east at 65 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Franklin, Monterey, Brandywine, Upper Tract, Doe Hill, Head Waters, Riverton, Deer Run, Liberty, Circleville, Ruddle, Williamsville, Oak Flat, Vanderpool, Sirons Mill, Hightown, Clover Creek, Cherry Grove, Mill Gap, and New Hampden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Pretty robust stuff for the time of day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 814 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... Western Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... East central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Central Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 900 AM EDT. * At 813 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Romney to 12 miles north of Moorefield to near Petersburg, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Romney, Wardensville, Springfield, Capon Bridge, Green Spring, Bean Settlement, Yellow Spring, Shanks, High View, Bloomery, Perry, Points, Lost City, Lost River, Delray, Cross Junction, Baker, Kirby, Gore, and Wapocomo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Pretty robust stuff for the time of day. Surprised myself. We will see if it holds together. At least shear is higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Nothing severe here with that line, but some booming thunder with lightning and pouring rain. Winds gusting to 30. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago This likely will reduce/preclude any significant threat later except for areas that see more sun and do not get stabilized early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: This likely will reduce/preclude any significant threat later except for areas that see more sun and do not get stabilized early. Looks like elevated convection at best. 12 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Nothing severe here with that line, but some booming thunder with lightning and pouring rain. Winds gusting to 30. Yup. We at least need the rain. Would be surprised if we actually get into the mid 90s like previously forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 51 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: This likely will reduce/preclude any significant threat later except for areas that see more sun and do not get stabilized early. There is some hint of destabilization later today in guidance, and it wouldn't take much with these wind fields, so I don't think we're totally dead. That said, the models have a lousy handle on the ongoing convection, so the idea that we may be too stable is valid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 49 minutes ago Share Posted 49 minutes ago 30 minutes ago, high risk said: There is some hint of destabilization later today in guidance, and it wouldn't take much with these wind fields, so I don't think we're totally dead. That said, the models have a lousy handle on the ongoing convection, so the idea that we may be too stable is valid. Sun is coming out quickly here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 33 minutes ago Share Posted 33 minutes ago 10 hours ago, vortex95 said: This happens *every* time new technology becomes available. It is sold as the best thing since sliced bread w/ lofty claims. I recall in the 80s it was said "in 10-15 year advancement in computer modelling will make human forecasting obsolete!' Right, how did that work out? In fairness, computer modelling advancement has removed a lot of manual work a human used to do, but this is a *good* thing actually. Why?, b/c the shear volume of wx data now is enormous and keeps increasing. We need faster computers and AI to help sort and manage it all (do the grunt heavy lifting) so the human forecast can provide the insight/wisdom/understanding -- which AI does not have -- to give concise and clear messages to all. That's one reason why IDSS is so big in the NWS. Forecasts have become very good, but the real challenge is *communicating* it all effectively in this information overload and social media world. So I would not worry about AI "taking over," so to speak, anytime soon. AI will not remove the forecasters. I can't even get a Comcast AI bot to schedule a service appointment, there's no way an AI person will replace a forecaster at a WFO when I need help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 32 minutes ago Author Share Posted 32 minutes ago Weenie comment - but I know we've had some events where early showers/precip gave us some REALLY soupy air and if clearing happens it could intensify fuel for later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 31 minutes ago Share Posted 31 minutes ago Just now, Kmlwx said: Weenie comment - but I know we've had some events where early showers/precip gave us some REALLY soupy air and if clearing happens it could intensify fuel for later. June 13, 2013 comes to mind. Granted that was a Day 2 MOD, but the morning convection blew through and dropped a surface boundary that fire up the Leesburg to Rockville to College Park tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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