March Madness

[weatherwiz]

I am not sure how I feel about this conditional intensity addition to the SPC outlooks. I understand the premise behind it but I feel like this is going to introduce a great deal of confusion. I do like the changes though which will make high risks order to become issued although that means we will never see a high risk here again  

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We also had a white Xmas west of 128....12/26 wasnt bad here either, about 4-4.5" 

Yeah that too. Am I remembering correctly the cape had a white Christmas as well? 
 

3.5” in that 12/26 deal here. But up until 1/17 it did feel like we were getting shit luck again with the smaller deals. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that too. Am I remembering correctly the cape had a white Christmas as well? 
 

3.5” in that 12/26 deal here. But up until 1/17 it did feel like we were getting shit luck again with the smaller deals. 

The squalls on New Years were crazy too...had like 3" from that event with over 2" from the squalls alone. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Still looks like 55-65 Potential Sunday through early Wednesday for most of SNE even into CNE .  DXR may pull a 70 one day.. 

[CoastalWx]

The problem with this warmer weather coming up is that everything is just gonna be a mess. It’s almost better that we didn’t have any snow on the ground because at least things wouldn’t be a muddy mess.
 

Finally seeing a small patch of grass where it’s sloped, wind scoured, and destroyed by turkeys pecking away at it. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

There is a period late Saturday into first half of Sunday with dew 48-58 across SNE .. That will cause some damage .. Then again late Tuesday 

[rimetree]

Still a fairly robust pack here. It'd be funny to lose it all and then have it reappear by the end of March.

[mreaves]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The problem with this warmer weather coming up is that everything is just gonna be a mess. It’s almost better that we didn’t have any snow on the ground because at least things wouldn’t be a muddy mess.
 

Finally seeing a small patch of grass where it’s sloped, wind scoured, and destroyed by turkeys pecking away at it. 

Now you're seeing the issue I have with early warm ups and melt outs up here.  Regardless of what happens, you can't do anything outside until mid to late April so losing the pack early just prolongs mud season.

[weatherwiz]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The problem with this warmer weather coming up is that everything is just gonna be a mess. It’s almost better that we didn’t have any snow on the ground because at least things wouldn’t be a muddy mess.
 

Finally seeing a small patch of grass where it’s sloped, wind scoured, and destroyed by turkeys pecking away at it. 

ehhh too me that's just a byproduct of a good winter...part of having a good (or great) winter is dealing with the aftermath which is spring mud season. The remainder of this month is probably going to bring it all, some very mild days, some raw/chilly days, wintry precipitation threats, rain. Hopefully by the time we get closer to April we can make a quick transition into more pleasant weather (which still can be quite the ask)

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Was always very nervous about the mid-week period when looking at that configuration across Canada. It's extremely difficult this time of year here to get full blow warm frontal passages through the region. It can be easy to get carried away with seeing pretty oranges with H5 anomalies and 850 temp anomalies but there is alot that can muk up sfc warm frontal passages. This is exactly how NNE (especially elevations) can rack up end of season snowfall totals

Agreed .. if using just just climate, but therein is an interesting consideration. 

Part of climate practicum is being aware of recency, without it being a recency bias - tricky difference there...  But over the last 10 or 12 years, recency has verified something like 1/3 or more of the Feb thru Apr periods as hosting an exotic early season warm event.  80s dude.  With warm fronts up near Baffin Island for f sake.  I've seen that happen ... yet never saw that happen in the previous 40 some odd years of my life.  It's a new thang, man... get jiggy wit' it. 

Or, has that stopped.  I don't know, but recency has demonstrated it's no longer merely plausible... it can and will do so.  So, what the models were showing 7 to 10 days ago was another one of those crazed potentials - or at minimum, suggesting as much. 

Couldn't dismiss it out of hand because of recency.   Not really hard.  There were several runs back then with 582 dm height contours safely N of Logan's latitude. 

But like you were saying .. idiosyncrasies that are equally ( obviously ) important raised some flags.. Canada and so forth

[VivaManchVegas]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably be an early heat wave in April

Don't threaten me with a good time..

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh too me that's just a byproduct of a good winter...part of having a good (or great) winter is dealing with the aftermath which is spring mud season. The remainder of this month is probably going to bring it all, some very mild days, some raw/chilly days, wintry precipitation threats, rain. Hopefully by the time we get closer to April we can make a quick transition into more pleasant weather (which still can be quite the ask)

Agreed...this is what Will and said a week ago... probably just ends up no side of the warm season/cool season debate taking a trophy

[CoastalWx]

Gfs is great. Warm enough for nothing interesting but cold enough to eff us from nice weather. This is for Wednesday.

[Great Snow 1717]

I would not be the least bit surprised if a backdoor front passes by at least part of the area on Tuesday..

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is great. Warm enough for nothing interesting but cold enough to eff us from nice weather. This is for Wednesday.

On the brochure for why you stay away from New England springs it reads,

"It's great! Warm enough for nothing interesting but cold enough to eff us from nice weather. This is for Mar-early May."

[weatherwiz]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed .. if using just just climate, but therein is an interesting consideration. 

Part of climate practicum is being aware of recency, without it being a recency bias - tricky difference there...  But over the last 10 or 12 years, recency has verified something like 1/3 or more of the Feb thru Apr periods as hosting an exotic early season warm event.  80s dude.  With warm fronts up near Baffin Island for f sake.  I've seen that happen ... yet never saw that happen in the previous 40 some odd years of my life.  It's a new thang, man... get jiggy wit' it. 

Or, has that stopped.  I don't know, but recency has demonstrated it's no longer merely plausible... it can and will do so.  So, what the models were showing 7 to 10 days ago was another one of those crazed potentials - or at minimum, suggesting as much. 

Couldn't dismiss it out of hand because of recency.   Not really hard.  There were several runs back then with 582 dm height contours safely N of Logan's latitude. 

But like you were saying .. idiosyncrasies that are equally ( obviously ) important raised some flags.. Canada and so forth

Just going from memory here but one major difference between those extremely anomalous warm periods is there was tremendous support within the Arctic domain...meaning there was little or nothing to fight back again the building heights or compress them. Also, notice with those periods too is those patterns didn't really come with fronts readily advancing across the eastern third of the country...it's a much different story building heights naturally (such a a response to lowering heights upstream a.ka. west trough) versus forcing heights to build due to say a propagating front. 

When you get cold fronts traversing the OV and into the Northeast, more than likely there will be at least one wave developing along the front and that's what ultimately screws us in the warm sector department, particularly when the look across eastern Canada favors to squash said low. 

[UnitedWx]

33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

With warm fronts up near Baffin Island for f sake.

Go bold

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Just going from memory here but one major difference between those extremely anomalous warm periods is there was tremendous support within the Arctic domain...meaning there was little or nothing to fight back again the building heights or compress them. Also, notice with those periods too is those patterns didn't really come with fronts readily advancing across the eastern third of the country...it's a much different story building heights naturally (such a a response to lowering heights upstream a.ka. west trough) versus forcing heights to build due to say a propagating front. 

When you get cold fronts traversing the OV and into the Northeast, more than likely there will be at least one wave developing along the front and that's what ultimately screws us in the warm sector department, particularly when the look across eastern Canada favors to squash said low. 

I know what you're getting at... 

It's the difference between a well mixed warm sector with amorphous WCB trafficking strata and more DP related warmth.  It's 64/57 below the warm front and E of the main b-c axis. 

That kind of warm up is impressive probably more so in the DP/ thermodynmaic quotient.   The kinetic side of the temp is hugely above normal but not out of control in this kind of warm up. 

The other kind, the big dawg warming events that are more index correlated ... those are ridge dome deals with larger scale DVM compression through an unseasonably early 850 mb to surface kinetic layer.  The actual thermodynamic quotient of the atmosphere is surprisingly low...   75/27 type thing...  Moisten that air mass and it's 44 F beat the red head step child weather.   Those kind of larger planetary wave things are related to the loss of polar index/mass field modulations on the mid latitudes, and when the air is dry and there's 850 mb anomalies rattling around in the ridge, the kinetic ceiling is high.   

Which by the way...either tends to proceed a -NAO burst.  All that warmth then terminates at high latitude and there's a height growth up there.  

[NorEastermass128]

I’ll be in VA next week. Looking forward to the warm weather down there. We need next week’s thaw here desperately. 

[weatherwiz]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know what you're getting at... 

It's the difference between a well mixed warm sector with amorphous WCB trafficking strata and more DP related warmth.  It's 64/57 below the warm front and E of the main b-c axis. 

That kind of warm up is impressive probably more so in the DP/ thermodynmaic quotient.   The kinetic side of the temp is hugely above normal but not out of control in this kind of warm up. 

The other kind, the big dawg warming events that are more index correlated ... those are ridge dome deals with larger scale DVM compression through an unseasonably early 850 mb to surface kinetic layer.  The actual thermodynamic quotient of the atmosphere is surprisingly low...   75/27 type thing...  Moisten that air mass and it's 44 F beat the red head step child weather.   Those kind of larger planetary wave things are related to the loss of polar index/mass field modulations on the mid latitudes, and when the air is dry and there's 850 mb anomalies rattling around in the ridge, the kinetic ceiling is high.   

Which by the way...either tends to proceed a -NAO burst.  All that warmth then terminates at high latitude and there's a height growth up there.  

I'm with you too...we could be setting the stage for some early April heat. For as cold and chilly we have been here...there has been some anomalous warmth off to our southwest and it's not something that has been brief spurts either. Unless something major happened to kind of move away from this across the south, the only thing which has presented us from tapping into this has been the configuration in the Arctic. Relax that and we open the gates. 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm with you too...we could be setting the stage for some early April heat. For as cold and chilly we have been here...there has been some anomalous warmth off to our southwest and it's not something that has been brief spurts either. Unless something major happened to kind of move away from this across the south, the only thing which has presented us from tapping into this has been the configuration in the Arctic. Relax that and we open the gates. 

The last two days worth of GFS operational cycles have been doing this sort of look out there in the la-la range ... new leitmotif.  I've found in the spring ( and autumn with cold looks, too - works in either direction), these longer range charts might actually carry some principle value, not daily or per se prognostic skill.  Those are two different things. One's conceptualizing a synoptic potential at longer leads, the other is deterministic.   

Anyway, this next week's "failing" warm up was really exposed similarly to this above... when it too was a long lead.  But idiosyncratics about the late winter/early spring hemisphere emerged to suppress, more so then corrected.  In other words, I wonder it the lower latitude planetary wave distribution (which has longer residence ) is actually a warm HA - cool Baja - warm SW Atlantic basin...  It would be sitting in wait for those "idiosyncractics" of late winter and early spring to pull away...

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The last two days worth of GFS operational cycles have been doing this sort of look out there in the la-la range ... new leitmotif.  I've found in the spring ( and autumn with cold looks, too - works in either direction), these longer range charts might actually carry some principle value, not daily or per se prognostic skill.  Those are two different things. One's conceptualizing a synoptic potential at longer leads, the other is deterministic.   

Anyway, this next week's "failing" warm up was really exposed similarly to this above... when it too was a long lead.  But idiosyncratics about the late winter/early spring hemisphere emerged to suppress, more so then corrected.  In other words, I wonder it the lower latitude planetary wave distribution (which has longer residence ) is actually a warm HA - cool Baja - warm SW Atlantic basin...  It would be sitting in wait for those "idiosyncractics" of late winter and early spring to pull away...

It's such a tease looking at that. We're so close to the warmth but the heights are totally compressed up here. This isn't a good look either in the Southeast, especially Florida where I think they are in a pretty bad drought and there are major fire concerns. But that is also setting up to what could be an extremely active March in the Great Plains there. But for here...certainly going to be several wintry mix threats.

[Lava Rock]

Good riding. Probably last ride. 33F in Eustis. Nice plate at Bald Mtn camps

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[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Good riding. Probably last ride. 33F in Eustis. Nice plate at Bald Mtn camps

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Nice picture…looks like a Doo Comp 850 Turbo up on the bank there….place looks nice. Enjoy pal. 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We also had a white Xmas west of 128....12/26 wasnt bad here either, about 4-4.5" 

Yup..that was a JP of 8-9”’here…so it was a very good event. Gave a nice feel to December..And then the snow NYE and big squalls NYD.  Was a good month. 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's such a tease looking at that. We're so close to the warmth but the heights are totally compressed up here. This isn't a good look either in the Southeast, especially Florida where I think they are in a pretty bad drought and there are major fire concerns. But that is also setting up to what could be an extremely active March in the Great Plains there. But for here...certainly going to be several wintry mix threats.

OH I think the storm track's shifted N, frankly.   I won't have hurt feelings if I turn out wrong there, but I have the equinox, climatology, and CC on my side here.  Look at the sfc cinema on that run.  It's one transit after the other down the 50th parallel of the continent.   They'll drape strong cold fronts, sure.  And probably some labored warm fronts ahead that drizzle at 34F.  ...all keeping us from being "warm warm" like you're intimating, but I'm sort of leaning on the first step out being a coherent retreat of the storm track.  

We can still get a wintry event via anomaly relative to that, or bowling season related, etc.. but those are by def fleeting. 

[Lava Rock]

Nice picture…looks like a Doo Comp 850 Turbo up on the bank there….place looks nice. Enjoy pal. 

Thats the Expedition. Monster sled. Frcst showing 8" here on weds. Looks like warmth is shlrt lived

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[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

OH I think the storm track's shifted N, frankly.   I won't have hurt feelings if I turn out wrong there, but I have the equinox, climatology, and CC on my side here.  Look at the sfc cinema on that run.  It's one transit after the other down the 50th parallel of the continent.   They'll drape strong cold fronts, sure.  And probably some labored warm fronts ahead that drizzle at 34F.  ...all keeping us from being "warm warm" like you're intimating, but I'm sort of leaning on the first step out being a coherent retreat of the storm track.  

We can still get a wintry event via anomaly relative to that, or bowling season related, etc.. but those are by def fleeting. 

Can't disagree with this

[HIPPYVALLEY]

That’s it, I’ve hit the wall. I’m letting whatever fell last night, freeze on the driveway tonight.
It will melt soon enough.

[VivaManchVegas]

33 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Good riding. Probably last ride. 33F in Eustis. Nice plate at Bald Mtn camps

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Might as well go proud and loud!