March Madness

[Damage In Tolland]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

haha at the goofus aifs

That will require some installs 

[HoarfrostHubb]

If that could just hold off until Friday of that week or so...

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro ai is 75-80 too.

Hopefully this isn’t a New England spring learning curve for them

The ops have decent warmth too though…not all the same days. But the 11th has been popping up as the really warm day on most runs for days now. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully this isn’t a New England spring learning curve for them

The ops have decent warmth too though…not all the same days. But the 11th has been popping up as the really warm day on most runs for days now. 

Ideally we get one or two of those days, get people in the mood, and then drop the hammer mid month to really upset people. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Two aspects going on at the same time.  One, the operational models are physically doing everything shy of violating physical laws to shirk the overall warm pattern (attempting to do so without notice too. lol).   Two, the ensemble smoothed means are showing that the warm pattern is transient.  

It seems the operational/tradition models ( not AIs) are ending up with looks that are sort of rushing to the latter.  There might also be some environmental feed backs going on that I wonder if the AIs actuallly handle. Not sure.. speculation.  Like, 10-20" of ambient geographic cryosphere.  The sun needs to be unabated, because under clouds with that at the bottom might be a heat sink. 

Probably have to take the dailies one at a time and not forecast with much confidence beyond 72 hours.  I wouldn't. Keep it at a principle level and allow for bigger errors.  This is kind of what we discussed all along - well, I discussed... Not going for more than melt and mud with any confidence.   I realize the AI versions show no shame but they are also not lasting very long, either.

The 00z GEFs extended index looks similar to March 1993

[mahk_webstah]

57 minutes ago, dendrite said:

haha at the goofus aifs

And three or four days later…

[Ginx snewx]

Depth 15.5 Water Equivalent 2.71

[ORH_wxman]

Man, looking at the ensembles, the public is gonna feel some whiplash....potential record highs for a day or two next week (if things break right....but even if they don't, it would still be quite mild)....then that PV presses south and we go back into a winter pattern. 

[tamarack]

-12 of fake cold this morning, possibly the season's last subzero, 99% it's the last double-digit below.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Kind of a crappy look for the next few weeks. Parade of weak shortwaves with showers every other day 

[Spanks45]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Depth 15.5 Water Equivalent 2.71

Between 7-8 inches here in north facing areas, grass in the south facing hills

[Damage In Tolland]

I can stand on top of the pack here. Lots of ice in it. It’ll go next week but it will fight . There’s 13-15” depth depending 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Kind of a crappy look for the next few weeks. Parade of weak shortwaves with showers every other day 

Here we go….the two monsters are wearing off…and we have this BS from you back. First off, could be record heat next week, then we look to snap back to a full blown winter pattern afterwards…. What’s crappy about that?  You’re the only one saying anything like this….par for the course from you. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I can stand on top of the pack here. Lots of ice in it. It’ll go next week but it will fight . There’s 13-15” depth depending 

That’s because you’re 98lbs.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I can stand on top of the pack here. Lots of ice in it. It’ll go next week but it will fight . There’s 13-15” depth depending 

Warmer more humid air and nights well above freezing. Goodbye. 

[dendrite]

It’ll go down faster than Spinks vs Tyson

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s because you’re 98lbs.

Better that than your 298 lbs

[Typhoon Tip]

It's March ...  go wonder.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Here we go….the two monsters are wearing off…and we have this BS from you back. First off, could be record heat next week, then we look to snap back to a full blown winter pattern afterwards…. What’s crappy about that?  You’re the only one saying anything like this….par for the course from you. 

Seriously, did you look at any guidance? Look at the most recent gfs run. It’s exactly as I said. Looks like typical March weather to me. Lots of clouds, raw, with some rain and snow showers.

Am I supposed to lie because we had two great events?

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Seriously, did you look at any guidance? Look at the most recent gfs run. It’s exactly as I said. Looks like typical March weather to me. Lots of clouds, raw, with some rain and snow showers.

Am I supposed to lie because we had two great events?

Euro looks different..so does the Euro AI…big warmth, and then a wintry look after…so.  EPS too. 

[mahk_webstah]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I can stand on top of the pack here. Lots of ice in it. It’ll go next week but it will fight . There’s 13-15” depth depending 

run less

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Seriously, did you look at any guidance? Look at the most recent gfs run. It’s exactly as I said. Looks like typical March weather to me. Lots of clouds, raw, with some rain and snow showers.

Am I supposed to lie because we had two great events?

yes

[DavisStraight]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Euro looks different..so does the Euro AI…big warmth, and then a wintry look after…so.  EPS too. 

He's being negative again, that's a good sign, last time he was moping a record blizzard hit.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Seriously, did you look at any guidance? Look at the most recent gfs run. It’s exactly as I said. Looks like typical March weather to me. Lots of clouds, raw, with some rain and snow showers.

Am I supposed to lie because we had two great events?

Looks warm next week and then back to cold. Don’t see rain every day.

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks warm next week and then back to cold. Don’t see rain every day.

That was exactly my point..WTF is he looking at. The warmth looks great…and then we go back the other way.  How it all actually all Plays out…we don’t actually know. But nothing looked like what he is saying.  

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

He's being negative again, that's a good sign, last time he was moping a record blizzard hit.

True. But the point was nothing looked like what he was saying. 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That was exactly my point..WTF is he looking at. The warmth looks great…and then we go back the other way.  How it all actually all Plays out…we don’t actually know. But nothing looked like what he is saying.  

Honestly don’t know. Sure not every day is blue skies and sun, but I don’t see it raining every day.