Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[Jebman]

You know things are starting up with the storm when the posts are coming on this board so thick and fast that I can't even keep up lmao

[Terpeast]

Just now, MDSnow93 said:

This is just a 1-hour snowfall map. The band itself is supposed to slowly move west to east if I understand correctly. It should affect more than 10 miles across over its full duration

Just saw the loop. Yes it’s a slow moving band that starts forming over me and migrates east slowly over several hours. 

[DDweatherman]

Show time for most is beginning next 30-60 mins. 

[Brianonymous]

5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Morning flights out of BWI are being cancelled already.  My brother was heading to Sarasota tomorrow morning, but is now on a plane tonight as his flight was nixed.

Already seeing the decline in air traffic

[D-Train]

Bigger flakes starting to mix in. South Leesburg, northwest of Dulles. But still mostly rain at this point.


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[bncho]

flipped to a rain/snow mix. 35/34

[BlizzardNole]

Mom has heavy snow with huge cotton balls a few miles south of Dunkirk.  Still just a light rain/snow mix in Germantown, hoping to win the IVT lottery later

[yoda]

Flakes starting to mix in here

[GEOS5ftw]

The low CCs on the LWX radar have really collapsed in the last few frames, so the melting layer seems to be dropping to the surface. However - ground truth in Wheaton has been mostly drizzle/light rain all day besides a few bursts of mangled flakes in heavier bands around 10am and 11:30am.

[EHoffman]

Not a flake in sight here yet.  Light rain continues.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

getting some obs of heavy snow under those yellows and dark greens, probably gonna flip most people to snow

Big flakes mixing in with rain now. 50/50 mix I would say. Temps have plummeted from 36.7 to 34.5 in the past hour as winds continually shift more north. 

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said:

Still plain all rain barely any at all actually will Annapolis get Raleighed?  Ugh! 

If anyone gets Raleigh'd it'll be DC. You're safe.

[Dendritious]

28 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

All rain where I am but the rain itself is probably an 80% liquid and 20% solid type concoction. 

Dranesville/Sterling area, 37/36, still mostly rain but the drops and the flakes are starting to duke it out like Olympic hockey

[kristia]

Snow in the Catoctins

[Roger Ramjet]

Heavy snow. All surfaces caving (no paved roads around me). Down to 33.

[RDM]

Fatties mixing in now.  Temp starting to drop - down 2F to 35 in last 30 mins.  

[Brianonymous]

Starting to see my snow chunks in my rain again.. Still 36f.

[WeatherQ]

Bel Air MD at the hospital top of Route 24 

36.7 F

36.0 DP

sad sad clear liquid falling 

[jnis]

Steady light rain in Damascus.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I  saw one snowflake in Alexandria. This will be a fun night!

[Terrapinwx]

Temperature down to 32.5 with snow sticking to most surfaces. Temperatures spike during lulls but as long as we get consistent bands snow will be able to stick during the day


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[JakkelWx]

Amazingly fast. took no time at all

[MillvilleWx]

34 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Even if right, the hrrr is basically different every run. 
@MillvilleWx I’m surprised there’s no talk of the anemic qpf field given this low. Bombed out too hard? No actual gulf fetch? Seeing some things that say locally this will still do its thing with crazy fgen and good dynamics… but on a broader scale this low isn’t producing the textbook shield we’d see.

It's actually more of a product of the best is yet to come, but heaviest rates are over the eastern shore right now due to a strong 7H FGEN alignment and closer fetch off the Atlantic. We are in a traditional Miller B where the moisture transport is likely to be weak from southern stream influences outside what occurred this morning from a lead wave that was ripping ahead of the mean trough. This is going as planned, and unfortunately, the proxy of the low and general timing of when the 5H pattern is expected to close off and pass under us will benefit those further east and northeast and only offer a small consolation prize (outside the norlun trough). Was hoping the 5H pattern closed sooner which would've helped us a ton, but the 06z runs last night kind of started the very slow bleed the wrong way in that regard and it's basically going to be a "just missed" scenario for a bigger storm, but we still get some snow out of it, which we can't say for all Miller B's. 

[bncho]

snow is starting to win over in McLean. temp still 35/34

[midatlanticweather]

Snowflakes bigger but not all snow. Temps dropping! Down to 34.8 in Purcellville

 

 

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, Terrapinwx said:

Temperature down to 32.5 with snow sticking to most surfaces. Temperatures spike during lulls but as long as we get consistent bands snow will be able to stick during the day


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where

[bncho]

NAM 3k norlun trough larger and more west @Terpeast 

[Jebman]

Usually it's the Eastern Shore eating slush, rain and mangled flakes. Not this time. This time it's places like Del and NJ and the Coast all the way up into Canada that are The Places To Be!. All the way down the Eastern Shore to the mouth of the Bay, for that matter!

Good to see the Eastern Shore for once getting smashed by snow tonight/tomorrow. I've seen some of those forecasts. Wow 24-25 inches of snow, wind driven by up to like 65 mph winds? That's a World-Class Blizzard!

[MillvilleWx]

My parents just sent me videos. It is absolutely PUKING snow there right now. Everything is covered and accumulating efficiently. The Lower Slower DE is about to see some potentially historic snowfall from this one. 10+ is all but a lock. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, Jebman said:

Usually it's the Eastern Shore eating slush, rain and mangled flakes. Not this time. This time it's places like Del and NJ and the Coast all the way up into Canada that are The Places To Be!. All the way down the Eastern Shore to the mouth of the Bay, for that matter!

Good to see the Eastern Shore for once getting smashed by snow tonight/tomorrow. I've seen some of those forecasts. Wow 24-25 inches of snow, wind driven by up to like 65 mph winds? That's a World-Class Blizzard!

Maestro triggered.