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Snowfall contest for Feb 22-23 ... NO EXCEPTIONS deadline for entries 06z Feb 22nd (0100h EST) ... 5h left to enter

Roger Smith

By Roger Smith,
in New York City Metro

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

Predict the snowfall totals for Feb 22 and 23 (as reported in CF6 documents) for the five local sites (NYC, LGA, ISP, JFK, EWR). 

Entries received after 0100h Sunday (06z 22nd) will not count and will not be scored. You may edit your original posts up to that deadline, I will not create a table of forecasts until 06z so I won't need any notification of edits made. By 07z I should have the table completed so any edits after that point will not count either.  

It would speed things up for me if you listed your five predictions in the order shown (NYC, LGA, ISP, JFK, EWR) but I will be on the lookout for predictions in a different order. Add any comments you want to add, about regional maximum values and amounts at other locations; these will have no bearing on contest scoring though. 

Forecasts to nearest tenth of an inch (storm total 22nd-23rd, any snow reported for 21st or 24th will not count towards contest). Forecasts in whole inches will be converted to decimal. 

Contest scoring will be done by an error-squared method to reward consistently good forecasts. If your errors were 1, 3, 2, 4, 6, your error squared total would be 1+9+4+16+36 = 66. As a secondary contest report value, I will also compare error totals (simple addition). We'll see if that makes any difference to the rankings. It usually does to some extent. 

The only tiebreaker will be best low error. If your total is the same as another entry, it goes to which entry has the lower maximum error (squared will be same as unsquared in this case). 

I may add some model predictions and NWS official forecasts if I can identify them accurately enough. Their rankings will not affect your rankings.

Good luck.  

(note: it seems unlikely but in the event of a total event cancel over all guidance, the contest will be declared null and void before deadline)

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  • Roger Smith changed the title to Snowfall contest for Feb 22-23 ... deadline for entries 06z Feb 22nd (0100h EST)
WintryMixmaster

WintryMixmaster

Posted
Posted

I'll take a shot, I've been following along with this storm since I have a lot of friends and family in NJ/PA (plus sometimes I like to pretend that 12 year old me is still in my childhood backyard in NJ measuring snow)

NYC: 12.9
LGA: 13.0
ISP: 15.8
JFK: 13.9
EWR: 13.2

Bonus prediction for my current backyard, after careful consideration of all the models and trends
Knoxville: 0.0

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TriPol

TriPol

Posted
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9 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Wow have all 5 of those areas ever received 25+ from One storm?

25+? No. 20+? Yes. I'm thinking this storm is more west than east. I think that with how explosive it will be, will give 2-3 inch per hour snowfalls under some really awesome deathbands. I think from 8 pm - 8 am is our window. Say we get a few inches before that and a few inches after that. I think this breaks records.

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  • Roger Smith changed the title to Snowfall contest for Feb 22-23 ... NO EXCEPTIONS deadline for entries 06z Feb 22nd (0100h EST) ... 5h left to enter

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