mitchnick Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 And you people scoffed at me when I posted the 9z Rap. Shame on you weenies, shame on you! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10 hours ago, baltosquid said: That's a big shift west!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I'd love to see the winds. I bet alot of us approach blizzard criteria 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Close, but the goods are still east or north of us. Running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, winter_warlock said: That's a big shift west!!! I didn’t see the output of the 6z UK after 0z’s move. I did however see a really impressive h5 map of about a 6 contour closed h5 bomb. NAM with a hurricane off the coast. Models are really starting to bomb this thing even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: The Catoctins having a strong performance with this setup would make sense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: beautiful. 10" for Mt. McLean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 anybody post the 12k NAM? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 So the Shenandoah crew has the RAP, SREF, HRRR and Nams on our side this morning what could go wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Nice run! Winds seem to peak with 40 mph gusts Monday am. Snowcrete followed by snowcane! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: La la lock it up! Beautiful. Better get the bread and milk….i mean more beer….said me NEVER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I didn’t see the output of the 6z UK after 0z’s move. I did however see a really impressive h5 map of about a 6 contour closed h5 bomb. NAM with a hurricane off the coast. Models are really starting to bomb this thing even more. There's the eye clearing out at the benchmark. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, bncho said: anybody post the 12k NAM? Unreal, our office is right at that 30.3 in central NJ. Someone on their coast is going to have a top 5 event me thinks. Can more of the 12z suite PLEASE do what the Nam did, even to an extent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: The Catoctins having a strong performance with this setup would make sense. Agreed, it actually makes sense this time with that strong of a flow creating some upsloping for the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Weather Will said: Nice run! Winds seem to leak with 40 mph gusts Monday am. Not super ideal though for those further east. Wet snow looks awesome, but power outages could be a thing for those closer to the coast with lower ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Close, but the goods are still east or north of us. Running out of time. We were never really likely to be in the "best of the best" location here so I don't really see the issue. I mean really...expectations, people! Goal in my mind is a solid warning-level event, and who would complain at 6-10" of paste (besides usual suspects!)? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 So, is it possible to see blizzard warnings extend into our region with those winds or unlikely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Correct - my 3k map ended up being early. Sorry! So close to double digits from the ccb in eastern loudoun. Just 10 more miles please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Final 3k map. Deleted a second ago because i wasn’t sure if id posted Kuchie or not and wanted to be consistent: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, 87storms said: The Catoctins having a strong performance with this setup would make sense. The relatively strong performance of Frederick County VA does not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Final 3k map. Deleted a second ago because i wasn’t sure if id posted Kuchie or not and wanted to be consistent: Rooting for this even at a .75 multiplier of reality haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Climate175 said: So, is it possible to see blizzard warnings extend into our region with those winds or unlikely? I would think with gusts of 35mph forcasted we'd see blizzard warning. But who knows lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Final 3k map. Deleted a second ago because i wasn’t sure if id posted Kuchie or not and wanted to be consistent: 12" in Kuchera for Mount McLean!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Nam has a really fun time for most of us with low visibility wind blown mod to heavy snow Sunday evening into much of Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: We were never really likely to be in the "best of the best" location here so I don't really see the issue. I mean really...expectations, people! Goal in my mind is a solid warning-level event, and who would complain at 6-10" of paste (besides usual suspects!)? When the big cities around you, and even just 50 miles north or east of you are getting a historic snow, why would you ever care about 6 inches? These opportunities are so rare. Have to find a way to cash in. I’d rather risk getting nothing if it gave me a better chance of a huge hit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: So close to double digits from the ccb in eastern loudoun. Just 10 more miles please So close to the Norlun trough in Cvill too. One thing I have noticed which sucks for me is that the initial thump of precip overnight tonight has been trending a bit warmer causing it to be rain which was what I was relying on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 FWIW the RRFS is a helluva lot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Maybe the wind will help cool the surface so it can accumulate better…that’s a thing right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, bncho said: FWIW the RRFS is a helluva lot better The turd models are all off to a good start. Need the varsity models to give them support. Seeing the gfs look more like yesterday mornings run would help a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 20 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 3km is a really nice run. It has the 5-9pm period as a key for solid snow, but it also throws back more precip overnight, especially closer to the Bay. Verbatim, there is 0.65" of precip after 5pm in DC and nearly 0.9" in Baltimore. Over 1" in my hood along the bay. I'm really liking the area along and east of I-97 right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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