2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[dailylurker]

Right now my target is Bridgeville Delaware. I can hop on 13 to 404 and jet when it’s over. It's a nice open area. My target was Fenwick but I'm afraid to be that close to the warm ocean. Hopefully my target is over my backyard here soon. Either way, im jacking lol

[Nomz]

DC is gonna get Raleigh'd aren't we 

[Demeter]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

For sure! That norlun feature is going to be pretty incredible. I hope you and the WV/Winchester/South-Central PA peeps can catch it if the models have that correctly placed. Easy 1+”/hr rates expected in that thing. 

About 20 years ago, I ended up in a crazy norlun band up in Jersey.  It wasn’t forecasted and we got an additional 8-10 inches. The weather warnings were playing catch up all night.  This is the feature I am hoping for the most. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Question:  is the IVT tied to the position of the primary low?  In that would a more east low place the IVT further east?  Im struggling to understand just how a norlun forms and moves.

[baltosquid]

 

24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I am tbh. This is such a dynamic setup and the fact we have all the hi-res and regionals adjusting west should give merit. Plus, EC at the eastern envelope of its own ensemble members is a red flag. These solutions with the wrap snow for hours after the meat of the storm is gone is actually classic for these large Atlantic cyclones that occlude. Makes sense the hi-res are showing these solutions. 

I always wish mean member plots would also put the op low. So here's my edit of that for the euro. Op in blue* (edited in case of colorblindess)

 

[Maestrobjwa]

43 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

lol damn it GFS kuchie hates me 

Hahaha You and me both. I hope I've paid my dues of being gipped in the middle and can actually catch a break this time

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

DC is gonna get Raleigh'd aren't we 

No……yes!!

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

For sure! That norlun feature is going to be pretty incredible. I hope you and the WV/Winchester/South-Central PA peeps can catch it if the models have that correctly placed. Easy 1+”/hr rates expected in that thing. 

I think you can see it here where the low level winds converge-

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

 

I always wish mean member plots would also put the op low. So here's my edit of that for the euro. Op in blue* (edited in case of colorblindess)

 

Hmm, I'm a bit confused or maybe I mis-read something.  But @MillvilleWx said the EC was at the eastern end of the envelope of its own ensembles.  The image you show where you add the deterministic EC (in blue) actually shows the opposite of that (it's in the cluster of the western solutions)??  Again, maybe I misunderstood what he was indicating before.

[bncho]

PBP starting up.

Euro running.

[AlexD1990]

15 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Right now my target is Bridgeville Delaware. I can hop on 13 to 404 and jet when it’s over. It's a nice open area. My target was Fenwick but I'm afraid to be that close to the warm ocean. Hopefully my target is over my backyard here soon. Either way, im jacking lol

I mean I guess you can have some rapa scrapple lol

[Ji]

PBP starting up.
Euro running.

It’s 400 miles east

[bncho]

yea it's gonna be good. better phase early on, heights higher out east

[baltosquid]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Hmm, I'm a bit confused or maybe I mis-read something.  But @MillvilleWx said the EC was at the eastern end of the envelope of its own ensembles.  The image you show where you add the deterministic EC (in blue) actually shows the opposite of that (it's in the cluster of the western solutions)??  Again, maybe I misunderstood what he was indicating before.

I think he means the control (same conditions as op?) is on the eastern envelope of the members. Not the op itself. But since they are initialized the same it suggests maybe the operational initialization is not quite representative of what's happening, even if the op at higher res responds better and goes further west. Does someone smarter know if this makes sense? There is a "control" right?

[Random Chaos]

Just took some temperature measurements with my IR thermometer. My measurements are for just NW of Sandy Point State Park.

• Soil surface temperature varied between 29.8F and 35.2 F with most readings in the 32 to 33F range. This was measured after the sun dipped below the horizon.
• Chesapeake Bay temperature measured 33.8F (this is near shore on the open bay, not up a river or creek). This is the same as what I measured last night.
• My weather station has air temperature at 45.9F

I don't see temperature as a likely problem come morning near the Chesapeake Bay.

As a note, there is still snowcrete from the last storm on a beach near the top of it. I also have scattered spots in my yard that still have snowcrete.

 

[Warm Nose]

7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Question:  is the IVT tied to the position of the primary low?  In that would a more east low place the IVT further east?  Im struggling to understand just how a norlun forms and moves.

Norluns form somewhere along the collision of NW winds from the LP and the east/SE winds. It's tough to know where the rising motion zone will set up but it's generally along the shifting winds along the northwest side of the LP.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

yea it's gonna be good. better phase early on, heights higher out east

Way more juiced. 18z on top 12z on bottom at 11pm Sunday

[Jake Wx]

Euro already uptrended QPD through 34 

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

yea it's gonna be good. better phase early on, heights higher out east

Bncho doesn’t miss. This kid just keeps on winning

[Nomz]

Just now, Warm Nose said:

Norluns form somewhere along the collision of NW winds from the LP and the east/SE winds. It's tough to know where the rising motion zone will set up but it's generally along the shifting winds along the northwest side of the LP.

and if you squint really hard you can see DC smack dab in the subsidence zone

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

I think he means the control (same conditions as op?) is on the eastern envelope of the members. Not the op itself. But since they are initialized the same it suggests maybe the operational initialization is not quite representative of what's happening, even if the op at higher res responds better and goes further west. Does someone smarter know if this makes sense? There is a "control" right?

The control member of an ensemble system would essentially be a lower res version of the deterministic.  Maybe @MillvilleWx meant that the ensemble mean is a bit to the east relative to the deterministic?  At any rate, the main thing that I see is that there's a good clustering to the west there.

[bncho]

yea it's great, better than 12z

[bncho]

More tucked?

 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Just took some temperature measurements with my IR thermometer. My measurements are for just NW of Sandy Point State Park.

• Soil surface temperature varied between 29.8F and 35.2 F with most readings in the 32 to 33F range. This was measured after the sun dipped below the horizon.
• Chesapeake Bay temperature measured 33.8F (this is near shore on the open bay, not up a river or creek). This is the same as what I measured last night.
• My weather station has air temperature at 45.9F

I don't see temperature as a likely problem come morning near the Chesapeake Bay.

As a note, there is still snowcrete from the last storm on a beach near the top of it. I also have scattered spots in my yard that still have snowcrete.

 

Matches this well

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

and if you squint really hard you can see DC smack dab in the subsidence zone

You don't even have to squint!!! 

[SnowenOutThere]

Monday 1am total

[clskinsfan]

19 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Question:  is the IVT tied to the position of the primary low?  In that would a more east low place the IVT further east?  Im struggling to understand just how a norlun forms and moves.

I dont know if the surface low position matters. I think the outer band from the inverted trough is a crap shoot. 

[Interstate]

Why do Storm Vista maps look like they came from the Atari 2600

[AmericanWxFreak]

[SnowenOutThere]

I've made my decision. I will be heading back to nova.