2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[mitchnick]

And you people scoffed at me when I posted the 9z Rap. Shame on you weenies, shame on you!

[winter_warlock]

10 hours ago, baltosquid said:

That's a big shift west!!!

[winter_warlock]

I'd love to see the winds. I bet alot of us approach blizzard criteria 

[osfan24]

Close, but the goods are still east or north of us. Running out of time.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

That's a big shift west!!!

I didn’t see the output of the 6z UK after 0z’s move. I did however see a really impressive h5 map of about a 6 contour closed h5 bomb.

NAM with a hurricane off the coast. Models are really starting to bomb this thing even more. 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The Catoctins having a strong performance with this setup would make sense.

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

beautiful. 10" for Mt. McLean.

[bncho]

anybody post the 12k NAM?

[aldie 22]

So the Shenandoah crew has the RAP, SREF,  HRRR  and Nams on our side this morning what could go wrong 

[Weather Will]

Nice run!  Winds seem to peak with 40 mph gusts Monday am. Snowcrete followed by snowcane!

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

La la lock it up! Beautiful. Better get the bread and milk….i mean more beer….said me NEVER! 

[WVclimo]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I didn’t see the output of the 6z UK after 0z’s move. I did however see a really impressive h5 map of about a 6 contour closed h5 bomb.

NAM with a hurricane off the coast. Models are really starting to bomb this thing even more. 

There's the eye clearing out at the benchmark.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

anybody post the 12k NAM?

Unreal, our office is right at that 30.3 in central NJ. Someone on their coast is going to have a top 5 event me thinks. Can more of the 12z suite PLEASE do what the Nam did, even to an extent. 

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

The Catoctins having a strong performance with this setup would make sense.

Agreed, it actually makes sense this time with that strong of a flow creating some upsloping for the area. 

[87storms]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Nice run!  Winds seem to leak with 40 mph gusts Monday am.

Not super ideal though for those further east. Wet snow looks awesome, but power outages could be a thing for those closer to the coast with lower ratios.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Close, but the goods are still east or north of us. Running out of time.

We were never really likely to be in the "best of the best" location here so I don't really see the issue.  I mean really...expectations, people!  Goal in my mind is a solid warning-level event, and who would complain at 6-10" of paste (besides usual suspects!)?

[Climate175]

So, is it possible to see blizzard warnings extend into our region with those winds or unlikely? 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Correct - my 3k map ended up being early. Sorry!

So close to double digits from the ccb in eastern loudoun. Just 10 more miles please

[NorthArlington101]

Final 3k map. Deleted a second ago because i wasn’t sure if id posted Kuchie or not and wanted to be consistent: 

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

The Catoctins having a strong performance with this setup would make sense.

The relatively strong performance of Frederick County VA does not.  

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Final 3k map. Deleted a second ago because i wasn’t sure if id posted Kuchie or not and wanted to be consistent: 

 

Rooting for this even at a .75 multiplier of reality haha

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Climate175 said:

So, is it possible to see blizzard warnings extend into our region with those winds or unlikely? 

I would think with gusts of 35mph forcasted we'd see blizzard warning. But who knows lol

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Final 3k map. Deleted a second ago because i wasn’t sure if id posted Kuchie or not and wanted to be consistent: 

 

12" in Kuchera for Mount McLean!!

[DDweatherman]

Nam has a really fun time for most of us with low visibility wind blown mod to heavy snow Sunday evening into much of Monday. 

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

We were never really likely to be in the "best of the best" location here so I don't really see the issue.  I mean really...expectations, people!  Goal in my mind is a solid warning-level event, and who would complain at 6-10" of paste (besides usual suspects!)?

When the big cities around you, and even just 50 miles north or east of you are getting a historic snow, why would you ever care about 6 inches? These opportunities are so rare. Have to find a way to cash in. I’d rather risk getting nothing if it gave me a better chance of a huge hit.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

So close to double digits from the ccb in eastern loudoun. Just 10 more miles please

So close to the Norlun trough in Cvill too. One thing I have noticed which sucks for me is that the initial thump of precip overnight tonight has been trending a bit warmer causing it to be rain which was what I was relying on.

[bncho]

FWIW the RRFS is a helluva lot better

[BristowWx]

Maybe the wind will help cool the surface so it can accumulate better…that’s a thing right? 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, bncho said:

FWIW the RRFS is a helluva lot better

The turd models are all off to a good start. Need the varsity models to give them support. Seeing the gfs look more like yesterday mornings run would help a lot.

[MillvilleWx]

20 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The 3km is a really nice run.  It has the 5-9pm period as a key for solid snow, but it also throws back more precip overnight, especially closer to the Bay.  Verbatim, there is 0.65" of precip after 5pm in DC and nearly 0.9" in Baltimore.

Over 1" in my hood along the bay. I'm really liking the area along and east of I-97 right now.